Bertini Transit Trip Time Modeling

7/31/2019 Bertini Transit Trip Time Modeling

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Ro b e r t L. Be r t i n i

Portland State UniversitySeptember 26, 2003

Usi n g A r c h i v e d

St op - Leve l Tr an si tGeo-Loca t ion Dat af or I m p r ov edOp e r a t i o n s a n dP e r f o r m a n c e

M o n i t o r i n g


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O b j e c t i v e sO b j e c t i v e s

Trends in transittechnologyAVL and APC

BDS system and dataarchivingPreliminary route levelanalysisOther examplesConclusions andfuture research


3/71

Au t o m a t i c v e h i cl e l o ca t i o n ( AVL)A u t o m a t i c v e h i cl e l o ca t i o n ( AVL)

Determination of vehiclelocationGlobal positioning systems

(GPS)SignpostsGround-based radio

Dead-reckoningU.S. transit agencies

128 operational172 planned


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Au t o m a t i c p a ssen g e r co u n t er s ( APC)A u t o m a t i c p a ssen g e r co u n t er s ( A PC)

Count boarding and alightingpassengersInfrared beams

U.S. transit agencies60 operational124 planned


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AVL/ APC i n t h e Ba y A r e aAVL/ APC i n t h e Ba y A r e a

1 9 6 [467]1 8 0 4 [2518]TOTAL

0 [36]312 [362]SamTrans

0 [135]350San Francisco MUNI

00 [37]Western Contra Costa

054 [62]Sonoma County Transit

080 [86]Santa Cruz

0 [100]6 [600]Santa Clara VTA019Napa County Transit

7171Livermore/Amador

0112 [131 by 2005]Central Contra Costa

125800 in 2002AC Transit

APCAVL

Source: APTS Deployment in the United States Year 2002 Update , USDOT, 2003.


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Ar ch i v i n g AVL/ APC Da t aA r ch i v i n g AVL/ APC D at a

AVL not designed with archived data in mind.Most AVL systems do not deliver data for off-line planning analysis.

Transit agencies didnt insist on it.APCs designed with archiving in mind.APCs often only in 10-15% of fleet.

TriMet system driven by APC pays for itself in saved reporting costs

Source: TCRP H-28 , Uses of Archived AVL-APC Data t o I m prove Transit Perform ance and Managem ent .


7/71

A b o u tA b o u t Tr iMetTr iMet

Serves 1.2 M population575 mi 2

62.8 M annual bus trips206,600 daily bus boardings

95 bus routes655 buses8100 bus stops

Also LRT, Paratransit


8/71

Per f o r m an ce m easu r em en tPer f o r m an ce m easu r em en t

Measuring system performance is the first step toward efficient and proactivemanagement.Increasing attention to transit performanceTransit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual

Quantitative/qualitativePassenger point of viewLinked to agency operating decisions

NCHRP Performance Based Planning ManualAccessibilityMobilityEconomic Development

Improve reliabilityReduce variability of system performanceDelayTravel time

Attract more ridersReduce operations costsIncrease productivityLink to service standards


9/71

I n t h e p astI n t h e p ast

Data collection moredifficultLow temporal andspatial resolution

Many people tocollect little data Focus on limited,general, aggregate

measures for externalreportingNatural airconditioning


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TodayToday

Unlimited coverage andcontinuous durationDesign, extract and testspecific measuresActual system performanceData management/processingchallengesNeed for generating relevantmeasures


11/71

Tr iMetTr iMet ss Bu s Disp a t ch Sy st emBu s Di spa t ch Sy st em

On-BoardComputer

Radio

DoorsLift

APC (Automatic PassengerCounter)

Overhead Signs

OdometerSignal Priority Emitters

Memory Card

RadioSys tem

GaragePCs

Radio AntennaGPS Antenna

Navstar GPS Satellites

Control Head


12/71


Sc h e d u l e d e v i a t i o n

Con t r o l HeadCon t r o l HeadPCMI A Car dPCMI A Car d


13/71

Real Tim e Elem en t sReal Tim e Elem en t s

Radio

DoorsLift

APC (Automatic PassengerCounter)

Overhead Signs

OdometerSignal Priority Emitters

Memory Card

RadioSys tem

GaragePCs

Ra d i o A n t e n n aGPS Ant enn a

N a v st a r GPS Sa t e l l i t e s

Control Head

On -B o a r dC o m p u t e r


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Real Tim e Elem en t sReal Tim e Elem en t s

On-boardComputer

GPSLocation

ScheduleData

Radio/CellularCommunications

90 secUpdates

D i sp a t ch a n d Co n t r o l A r r i v a l Pr e d i ct i o n


15/71

Ar ch i v e d El em e n t sA r ch i v e d El em en t s

Radio

D o o r sLi f t

A PC ( A u t o m a t i c P a ss e n g e rC o u n t e r )

O v e r h e a d S ig n s

O d o m e t e rSi g n a l Pr i o r i t y Em i t t e r s

M e m o r y Ca r d

RadioSys tem

GaragePCs

Ra d i o A n t e n n aGPS Ant enn a

N a v st a r GPS Sa t e l l i t e s

Co n t r o l H e a d

On -B o a r dC o m p u t e r


16/71


On-boardComputer

GPSLocation

ScheduleData

APC/Lift

PCMIACard

Ev e n t D a t a[ O p e r a t o r ]

Pass up OverloadTraffic DelayTrain/Bridge DelayFare EvasionGraffiti/Vandalism

Stop Data[Automatic]


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Ev en t Da t a : Far e Ev as ionEv en t Da t a : Far e Ev as ion


18/71


On-boardComputer

GPSLocation

ScheduleData

APC/Lift

PCMIACard

Event Data[Operator]

St o p D a t a[ A u t o m a t i c ]

Scheduled

Unscheduled


19/71

St o p D a t aSt o p D at a

TIME LINE

DWELLTIME

D O O R O P E N

D O O R C L O S E

ARRIVE TIME

LEAVE TIME

REWRITTEN ARRIVE TIME (IF DOOR OPENS)

STOP LOCATION

1 5 M E T E R S

3 0 M E T E

R S


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St o p D a t aSt o p D at a

R o u

t e N o

.

S e r v i c e

D a t e

L e a v e

T i m e

S t o p

T i m e

A r r

i v e

T i m e

B a d g e

D i r e c

t i o n

T r i p

N o .

L o c a

t i o n

I D

D w e l

l

D o o r

L i f t

O n s

O f f s

E s t .

L o a d

M a x

S p e e d

P a t

t e r n

D i s t a n c e

X C o o r .

Y C o o r .

14 01NOV2001 8:53:32 8:49:15 8:53:28 285 0 1120 4964 0 0 0 0 0 21 41 10558.58 7644468 676005

14 01NOV2001 8:55:00 8:51:41 8:54:46 285 0 1120 4701 4 0 0 0 1 20 50 15215.05 7649112 67632814 01NOV2001 8:56:22 8:52:00 8:55:08 285 0 1120 4537 36 3 0 6 0 26 34 15792.35 7649674 676220

Route NumberVehicle NumberService DateActual Leave TimeScheduled Stop TimeActual Arrive TimeOperator ID

DirectionTrip NumberBus Stop Location

Dwell TimeDoor OpenedLift UsageOns & Offs (APCs)Passenger LoadMaximum Speedon Previous Link

DistanceLongitudeLatitude


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St o p D a t a : Pa sse n g e r M o v e m e n tSt o p D a t a : Pa sse n g e r M o v e m e n t


23/71

Rou t e 1 4 Case St u d yRou t e 14 Case St u d y


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Rou t e 1 4 Case St u d yRou t e 14 Case St u d y

7.9 miles long

105 scheduled trips per weekday64 scheduled stops40-45 min scheduled trip time (mean 43.3, SD 2.7 min)

3-55 min headways (mean 11.4 min)Focus on two weeks April 1-12, 2002 [>1000 runs]Morning inbound from SE 94th/Foster to NW 4th/HoytCrossing Hawthorne Bridge


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Ap r i l 1 A .M. I n b o u n d Tr i p sAp r i l 1 A .M . I n b o u n d Tr i p s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:0

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:0

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:0

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:0

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)


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Ap r i l 1 : Tw o I n b o u n d Tr i p sAp r i l 1 : Tw o I n b o u n d Tr i p s

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8:30 8:45 9:00 9:15 9:30

Time

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)


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Ap r i l 1 : Tw o I n b o u n d Tr i p sAp r i l 1 : Tw o I n b o u n d Tr i p s

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8:30 8:45 9:00 9:15 9:30

Time

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)

Trip 1290Badge 996 (28 yrs exp)Median 1.2 min late

Trip 1295Badge 2606 (4 yrs exp)Median 0.9 min late

Two latedepartures

One late, oneearly arrival


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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8:30 8:45 9:00 9:15 9:30

Time

D i s t a n c e

( m i l e s

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap r i l 1 : I m p act o fAp r i l 1 : I m p act o f PaxPax LoadLoad

Tr i p 1 2 9 0Load

P a s s e n g e r

L o

a d


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OnOn -- t i m e Per f o r m an cet i m e Per f o r m an ce

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

- 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

1 9

2 0

Late/Early (minutes)

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All "stops"n = 66,012Median = 0.6 min Late

32% Early


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OnOn -- t i m e Per f o r m an cet i m e Per f o r m an ce

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

- 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

1 9

2 0

Late/Early (minutes)

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TriMet Service Standard

[-1 min +5 min]85% On-time11% Early4% Late


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OTP v s . Tim e of DayOTP v s . Tim e of Day

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

5:00 7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00

Time

E a r l y

/ L a

t e ( m i n u

t e s

)


35/71

Tr iMetTr iMet Op e r a t o r Ex p e r i en ceOp e r a t o r Ex p e r i en ce

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%n = 3,249Mean = 9.8 years


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Tr iMetTr iMet Ope r a t o r OTPOper a t o r OTP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

Operator

M e d i a n

L a

t e / E a r

l y

April 1-12, 2002

Route 14 Inbound94 Operators65,848 stops


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Tr iMetTr iMet Ope r a t o r OTPOper a t o r OTP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Years Experience

M e

d i a n

E a r l y / L a

t e

April 1-12, 2002Route 14 Inbound

94 Operators65,848 stops

LateEarly


38/71

St o p Le v e l Pe r f o r m a n ceSt o p Le v e l Pe r f o r m a n ce

0:00

0:05

0:10

0:15

0:20

0:25

0:30

0:00 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30Actual Headway

S c

h e

d u

l e d H e a d w a y

April 1, 2002

Stop No. 2606

Hawthorne/ 22nd Ave

Mean Headway 11:02 min

St. Dev. 7:10


39/71

St o p Le v e l Pe r f o r m a n ceSt o p Le v e l Pe r f o r m a n ce

April 1, 2002

Stop No. 2606

Hawthorne/SE 22nd Ave

Mean Headway 11:02 min

St. Dev. 7:100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00

Time

C u m u

l a t i v e

B u s

A r r i v a

l N u m

b e r

ScheduledActual


40/71

Ro u t e 1 4 : Tr i p Ti m e Mo d e lRo u t e 1 4 : Tr i p Ti m e Mo d e l

boardingpassengersalightingpassengers

dwellsofnumbertimetripnonstopaverage0

0

=

=

=

=

+++=

b

a

d

b a d

N

N

N

T

cN bN aN T T


41/71

Dw el l Ti m eDw el l Ti m e

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0 1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

Dwell (sec)

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100

Nonzero Dwellsn = 34,456Mean = 13.3 sSD = 20.3 sLift use = 232 times


42/71

D w el l Ti m e v s . Pa ssen g e r M o v e m en tD w el l Ti m e v s . Pa ssen g e r M o v e m e n t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Passenger Movement

D w e

l l T i m e ( s

e c

)Off

28%

On61%

On + Off

4%

None

7%


43/71

B o a r d i n g sB o a r d i n g s

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

1 9

2 0

Boardings

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

n = 37,441Mean = 1.33SD = 2.45Max = 37


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A l i g h t i n g sA l i g h t i n g s

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

1 9

2 0

Alightings

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%n = 36,978Mean = 1.31SD = 2.62Max = 37


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Dw el l Ti m e M o d elDw el l Ti m e M o d el

021,795.063.6Dwell:OnlyAlighting

357,1527.403.6Dwell:OnlyBoarding

layover]no,G""APClift,nozero,-[non995,2496.087.294.5TimeDwell

=

+=

=

+=

==

++=

n

N

n

N

n

N N

a

b

a b


46/71

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Link Distance (miles)

T r a v e

l T i m e

( s e c

)

N o n st o p Tr i p Ti m eN o n st o p Tr i p Ti m e

n = 30,036 links

NSTT=15.3+191.2 x (sec)


47/71

Tr i p Ti m e M o d e lTr i p Ti m e Mo d e l

boardingpassengers

alightingpassengersdwellsofnumber

87.296.02.211606

=

=

=

+++=

b

a

d

b a d

N

N N

N N N T


48/71

Ru n Ti m e s: A p r i l 1Ru n Ti m e s: Ap r i l 1 -- 1 2 , 2 0 0 21 2 , 2 0 0 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00

Arrive Time

R u n

T i m e

( m

i n )

n =856 tripsMean on=40/tripMean off=40/tripMean no. of dwells=35/trip


49/71

Ru n Ti m e s: A p r i l 1Ru n Ti m e s: Ap r i l 1 -- 1 2 , 2 0 0 21 2 , 2 0 0 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 6

2 8

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

4 2

4 4

4 6

4 8

5 0

5 2

5 4

5 6

5 8

6 0

Run Time (minutes)

F r e q u e n c y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

n =856 tripsMean=41.5 minSD=5.1 min


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Ru n Ti m e v s . Op e r a t o r Ex p e r i en ceRu n Ti m e v s . Op e r a t o r Ex p e r i e n ce

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1973 1976 1979 1982 1984 1987 1990 1993 1995 1998 2001

Hire Date

M e a n

R u n T

i m e

n =856 trips83 operatorsRun time/experience relationship (95% confidence)


51/71

A ct u a l v s . Pr e d i ct e d Ru n Ti m eA ct u a l v s . Pr e d i ct e d Ru n Ti m e

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

20 30 40 50 60

Actual Run Time

P r e

d i c t e d R u n

T i m e

594592Veh-hrs7.4 min5.1 minSD

41.6 min41.5 minMean

P r e d i c t e dA c t u a ln =856


52/71

St op Con so l id a t i on Ana ly si sSt op Con so l id a t i on Ana ly si s

Route 14 length 41710 feet, 64 stops

Mean stop spacing 670 feetConsolidate stops to 1000 foot spacingeliminate 10 stopsReduce trip time 21.2 sec per stop, save 3.5 min perinbound run105 inbound trips per day 6.1 hours savings ($60/hr +/-)Add ~9 trips using existing resourcesImprove mean headway 11.4 10.4 min

Does it affect demand?


53/71

Bo ar d i n g Ar e a I m p r o v em en t An a ly s i sBo ar d i n g A r ea I m p r o v em en t An a ly si sStreamlining program to reduce dwelltime

Curb extensionsNearside farside conversionSmart cards

Mean boarding time estimated 2.87 secReduce boarding time by 1 sec at top tenlocationsTotal of 1800 passengers boarded atthese locationsSave 30 min/day


54/71

Ot h e r Ap p l i ca t i o n sOt h er A p p l i ca t i o n s


55/71

Ot h e r Ap p l i ca t i o n sOt h er A p p l i ca t i o n s

1 censustract

0.25-mibuffers

38% of population


56/71

Tr a n s i t Si g n a l Pr i o r i t yTr a n s i t Si g n a l Pr i o r i t y


57/71


Reduce run time and schedule variability180 intersections complete, 100 more in 2003Emitter turned on if bus is >90 sec late

Remains on until


58/71



59/71

Ex p r ess Bu ses a s Fr eew ay Pr ob esEx pr ess Bu ses a s Fr eew ay Pr ob es


60/71

Bu ses a s Pr ob es on Ar t e r i a l sBu ses a s Pr ob es on Ar t e r i a l s


61/71



62/71


b l


63/71


b lB P b A i l


64/71


B P b A i lB P b A i l


65/71


B P b A i lB P b A t i l


66/71


Vveh = 0.84 V pseudo

tt veh = 1.23 tt pseudo

B P b A t i lB P b A t i l


67/71


B i r d s d a l e

A v e

.

T o w

l e A v e

.

E a s t m a n

P k w y .

M a i n

A v e

.

W a l

t e r s

R d .

C l e v e

l a n d

A v e

.

H o o

d A v e

.

H o g a n

A v e

.

TriMetRoute 9

Probe Vehicle Run

Signalized IntersectionBus Stop

Legend

B P b A t i lBu ses a s Pr ob es on Ar t e r i a l s


68/71


Before (sec) 172 200 168 178 212 142

After (sec) 169 182 131 130 224 122

EB Probe EB Bus EB Hypothetical WB Probe WB Bus WB Hypothetical

EASTBOUND WESTBOUND

2% Savings

9% Savings

-6% Savings

14% Savings

27% Savings22% Savings

Discuss ionDiscuss ion


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Discuss ionDiscuss ion

Other uses for the BDS data?Conclusions?Save all of your data!

Ask for archiving capabilities

A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t sA c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s


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A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t sA c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s

Steve Callas, TriMet

Ahmed El-Geneidy, JamesStrathman, Thomas Kimpel,Kenneth Dueker, Center forUrban StudiesSutti Tantiyanugulchai, Civil & Environmental EngineeringNational Science FoundationOregon Department of TransportationCity of PortlandFederal Transit Administration

Mo r e i n f o r m at i onMo r e i n f o r m at i on


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Mo r e i n f o r m at i onMo r e i n f o r m at i on

Email: [email protected]: http://www.its.pdx.eduTriMet data readily available.

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Bertini Transit Trip Time Modeling

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