Expanze retailerů
1. Moskva
2. Petrohrad
3. Praha
4. Bratislava
5. Lublaň
6. Sofia
7. Bukurešť
8. Budapešť
9. Tallinn
10.Amsterdam
10. Kyjev
12. Berlín
12. Varšava
14. Záhřeb
14. Kodaň
14. Riga
14. Vilnius
18. Stockholm
19. Split
19. Paříž
19. Ženeva
2007
Int
erna
tiona
l Ret
aile
rs
Sur
vey
Expanze retailerů
1. Rusko
1. Spojené arabské emiráty
3. Slovensko
4. Bulharsko
4. Slovinsko
4. Maďarsko
2007
Int
erna
tiona
l Ret
aile
rs
Sur
vey
Expanze retailerů
73 % hlavní ulici
46 % SC ve středu měst
35 % shopping centra
kombinace
„kamenných“ obchodů
prodeje přes internet - zásilkový prodej
Expanze
Carrefour X Čína
Pálení dánských vlajek
Místní mentalita
Shopping centraRusko (6 milionu m2)Itálie a PolskoTurecko – 170 nových SC80 Istanbul (12,5 / 70 obyv.)
Rumunsko (Trnava – Peugeot)Bukurešť – černý trh
Západní Evropa remodelujeBalkán, Kosovo
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?Facts and Trends of
retail business in CEEPresented at:Conference “Not just about retail” Prague 22nd of May 2008
Presented by:Peter FraunhofferCB Richard Ellis, CEE Retail Coordinator
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• I will cover in my presentation mainly Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenija, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria
• CBRE does research, consultancy, tenant and landlord representation, valuation and (retail) investment
• My impressions result out of my daily work and probably are - in several aspects - subjective
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
THE FACTS
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• Development of shopping centres in CEE started in Poland more than 10 years ago
• Today the focus is on Romania and Bulgaria, but Poland still one of the fastest growing markets
• Spending power in CEE is still significantly below „western“ level:– Rank 1: Switzerland € 27.500 p.a.– Last rank: Moldavia € 700 p.a.
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• The lowest spending power in „western“ Europe:– Portugal: rank 19
• The biggest spending power in CEE:– Slovenija: rank 20
• The difference is less than € 1.000 per year
Source: GFK
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
The statistical „European Champion“ in the ratio shopping centre per capita is today
• LJUBLJANA, Slovenija:– 270.000 inhabitants– 380.000 sqm GLA retail centre space
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
The future „champion“ could be
• ZAGREB, Croatia:– 780.000 inhabitants– 200.000 sqm of existing retail space– 600.000 sqm of retail space in the pipeline
• The situation in cities like Osijek, Croatia or Ostrava, Czech Republic is comparable
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
Ratio of sqm retail space per capita
0,17 0,15 0,15 0,150,12
0,23
0,16
0,02 0,0010
0,040,080,120,160,2
0,24
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
The countries with the highest projected shopping centre space in the next two years are:
• Russia – between 2 and 4 mln sqm• Poland – between 1.5 and 1.8 mln sqm• Turkey – between 1.0 and 1,6 mln sqm• Romania – between 0.75 and 0.85 mln sqm• Hungary – around 0.35 mln sqm
depending on various sources
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
The countries with the highest relative growth of shopping centre space in the next two years are:
• Bulgaria + 350 %• Serbia + 150 %• Romania + 150 %
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
TRENDS
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• We face a certain saturation of the market combined with a shortage of prime locations
• Brownfield sites are still available throughout CEE in central locations and they will become even more important in the future
• Mixed use developments are attractive in CEE and there is a lot more to come like:– Eurovea, BA,SK– South City – BA, SK– Emonika City Centre – LJ, SLO– Europa – Sofia, BG– Topark, BP, HU
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• The pace of globalisation in retail will escalate in the years to come (see CBRE study „How global is retail?“)
• The growth of retail space is significantly higher than the growth of purchasing power
• Retailers will demand more flexible leasing agreements to be able to react to changes in the market
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• Many retailers will expand (at least as a first step) into new markets mainly on the basis of franchise agreements
• In all capitals High Street retail will gain additional relevance (at least for luxury brands)
• As a consequence of the „Subprime Crisis“ investments with higher risks will have a lesser chance to be executed
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• In near future the competition between the projects to come will increase
• Rents will decrease in those markets where today a „premium“ can be achieved
• The leasing of retail space will get more challenging
• The projects with the better location, the better design and the better concept will be the winners
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
• It is complex
• It is fast (growing)
• It is thrilling
• It is tricky
• It needs a lot of Know-How from all participants to make the right decisions
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
How is the Shopping Centre Market in CEE?
Thank you very much for your attention!
Facts and Trends of retail business in CEE
Poslední přednáška Diskuze Slovo právníka manažerů expanze nájemců
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