ZadnZadn:Urete kritickou cestu ve stochastick sti a minimln as potebn na dokonen projektu metodou PERT. Trvn innost respektive jejich optimistick, pesimistick a pravdpodobn odhad jsou zachyceny v tabulce ne.ijaijbijmij12262.513151.523000245176.5253.54.5426394.5277179360.51.514500058000593.58.54.567597687159.5794.511.55894.59.55.5910102414101100010122.57.53.511121321213132Dle urete:jak je pravdpodobnost dodren plnovanho termnu 46 dn?jak je pravdpodobnost, e se nekrit. uzly stanou kritickmi?

aij=optimistick odhad trvn innostibij=pesimistick odhad trvn innostimij=odhad nejpravdpodobnjho trvn innostii=poten uzel innostij=konen uzel innosti

SKrok1:Nkres st; vyhledn vech monch cest z uzlu slo 1 do uzlu poslednho; vpoet trvn innost a dlky cestData:Cesty:Trvn:ijaijbijmijyij1,3,6,8,9,10,12,134012262.531,3,6,8,9,10,11,12,133813151.521,3,6,7,9,10,12,13372300001,3,6,7,9,10,11,12,1335245176.581,2,7,9,10,12,1340253.54.5441,2,7,9,10,11,12,133826394.551,2,6,8,9,10,12,1345Nejdel cesta!!!277179101,2,6,8,9,10,11,12,1343360.51.5111,2,6,7,9,10,12,13424500001,2,6,7,9,10,11,12,13405800001,2,5,9,10,12,1333593.58.54.551,2,5,9,10,11,12,13316759771,2,5,8,9,10,12,1334687159.5101,2,5,8,9,10,11,12,1332794.511.5561,2,4,5,9,10,12,1337894.59.55.561,2,4,5,9,10,11,12,1335910102414151,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,1338101100001,2,4,5,8,9,10,11,12,133610122.57.53.541,2,3,6,8,9,10,12,1341111213221,2,3,6,8,9,10,11,12,1339121313221,2,3,6,7,9,10,12,13381,2,3,6,7,9,10,11,12,1336Krok2:Vbr cesty s nejdelm trvnmCestaTrvn1,2,6,8,9,10,12,1345Nejdel cesta = Kritick cesta ? NUTN PRAVDPODOBNOSTN ANALZA !!!

12345678910111213i=poten uzel innostij=konen uzel innostiaij=optimistick odhad trvn innostibij=pesimistick odhad trvn innostimij=odhad nejpravdpodobnjho trvn innostiyij=trvn innostiyij=(aij+4*mij+bij)/6

PERTKrok3:Vpoet termn monch, termn ppustnch uzl st a jejich rozptyl-vpoet v incidenn maticiData:ijaijbijmijyijrozptyl12262.530.444444444413151.520.44444444442300000245176.584253.54.5440.027777777826394.551277179102.7777777778360.51.5110.027777777845000005800000593.58.54.550.69444444446759770.4444444444687159.5101.7777777778794.511.5561.3611111111894.59.55.560.6944444444910102414155.444444444410110000010122.57.53.540.6944444444111213220.1111111111121313220.1111111111Vpoet TM(termn monch) a TP(termn ppustnch) uzl st:yij-i/j12345678910111213TM-i/j12345678910111213TP-i/j12345678910111213Min dku=TP1321321050208451023117813271014383313437740411418185055111651819186710615186118876721718188682481818915939924241004103943104139391121141114141122124512434313131345Max sloupce=TM0331111815182439394345Vpoet sigmaTM(rozptyl termn monch) a sigmaTP(rozptyl termn ppustnch) uzl st:rozptyl-i/j12345678910111213sigmaTM-i/j12345678910111213sigmaTP-i/j12345678910111213sigmaTP=rozptyl i/j s TP10.44444444440.444444444410.440.44110.179.1910.172040.027777777812.777777777820.444.440.471.443.2228.7510.946.979.7210.399.7230.027777777830.4738.758.754044.4446.946.94500.694444444454.445.1456.946.946.9460.44444444441.777777777861.893.2268.068.728.7271.361111111173.2577.617.6180.694444444483.9286.946.9495.444444444499.3696.256.251000.6944444444109.3610.06100.220.810.81110.1111111111119.47110.220.22120.11111111111210.17120.110.111313130sigmaTM=rozptyl i/j s TM00.440.444.444.441.441.893.223.929.369.3610.0610.17Krok4:Pravdpodobnostn analzaUzel12345678910111213TM0331111815182439394345TP0371818818182439414345RI0047703000200sigmaTM00.44444444440.44444444444.44444444444.44444444441.44444444441.88888888893.22222222223.91666666679.36111111119.361111111110.055555555610.1666666667sigmaTP10.16666666679.72222222228.756.94444444446.94444444448.72222222227.61111111116.94444444446.250.80555555560.22222222220.11111111110u00-1.3191593038-2.074232153-2.0742321530-0.9733285268000-0.646058282500F(u)50%50%9%2%2%50%17%50%50%50%26%50%50%Krok5:Odpovdi na otzkyKritick cesta:1,2,6,8,9,10,12,13Termn dokonen projektu:45Alternativn kritick cesta:1,2,6,8,9,10,11,12,13Trvn altern. krit. cesty:43Pst dodren termnu PT=4662%

i=poten uzel innostij=konen uzel innostiaij=optimistick odhad trvn innostibij=pesimistick odhad trvn innostimij=odhad nejpravdpodobnjho trvn innostiyij=trvn innostiyij=(aij+4*mij+bij)/6rozptyl=rozptyl trvn innostirozptyl=(bij-aij)^2/36Termn mon uzluTermn ppustn uzluInterferenn rezerva uzluRI=TPi-TMiRozptyl termnu monho uzluRozptyl termnu ppustnho uzluNormovan normln veliinau=-RIi/odmocnina(sigmaTPi+sigmaTMi)Distribun funkce=pravdpodobnost, e se nekritick uzly stanou kritickmiKritickou cestu tvo uzly s RI=0Termn ukonen projektu=TP 13. uzlu resp. dlka kritick cestyNa alternativn kritick cest le uzly s nejvy F(u) tj. v tomto ppad uzel 11 s F(u)=26%(PT-TM13)/odmocnina(sigmaTM)