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T½denn­ p™ehled J&T Banka (30. kv›ten - 3.erven 2011)

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  • 1. WEEKLY SUMMARY May 30 - June 3, 2011 Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W HighPX 1,232 -0.6 0.1 0.6 #N/A 1,100 1,276CZK/EUR 24.33 0.8 0.2 3.3 6.4 23.99 26.02CZK/USD 16.63 3.0 6.5 13.8 28.1 16.27 21.81PRIBOR 6M 1.56% 0bp -1bp 0bp 3bps 1.47% 1.58%10Y GB 3.75/20 3.64% -11bps -33bps -27bps -66bps 3.23% 4.35%Prague Stock Exchange Close w/w (%)AAA Auto 25.0 -2.4CME 348 -6.3 CZK m PX IndexCEZ 900 -3.2 4,000 1,300ECM 33 -4.9Erste 843 0.9Fortuna 134 3.8 3,000 1,250KB 4,100 1.1KITD 199 -5.2NWR 240 -12.3 2,000 1,200Orco 218 -4.6Pegas 446 1.1PMCR 9,460 2.3 1,000 1,150TEF 417 1.3Unipetrol 181 0.2VIG 958 -0.4 0 1,100 Equity Bonds 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06CZK m 9,168 9,087EUR m 374.4 371.6Source: Bloomberg, PSE, ATLANTIK FTHEADLINES ONE-WEEK OUTLOOKCEZ Given the unfavourable macroeconomic data released last- Shutdown at Temelin extended week (especially US monthly unemployment report) and the- Ex-dividend day absence of new events, we still expect to see negative- Managers sell company shares sentiment and potential profit-taking this week.Pegas Fortuna is going ex-dividend today, 6 June (EUR 0.3 per- Investment in Egypt worth EUR 55-60m share; 5.7% gross. div. yield). The situation around Sazka will be still monitored, with a potential impact on Fortuna;NWR however, that should be already priced in.- Majority owner to sell up to 16m shares In case of CEZ, there will be on external factor German- Third closing date of share-for-share offer parliament is to decide today on the future of the nuclearFortuna energy programme.- Last cum-dividend day NWR should know the outcome of the FTSE- Offer for lottery activities of Sazka committees review of the index on Wednesday (8Economy June). The effect of potential inclusion of NWR in the index- Weaker industrial output in April should be seen on 17 June. Due to an additional supply- Trade balance surplus offset by high crude oil of shares by majority owner BXR of up to 16m piecesprices (6.1% of the companys value), we consider this factor neutral without an impact on the stock price. Concerning macroeconomic events, the upcoming week will be just the opposite of the previous week as regards the number and the importance of macroeconomic releases. Markets will probably follow FEDs Beige Book (Wednesday), which assesses the US economy and provides an economic outlook. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday. The interest rates are expected to be left unchanged at 1.25%. The central banks commentary will be followed. For the time being, market expects interest rates to be raised at the next meeting in July.
  • 2. EQUITY MARKET PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGEMARKET NEWSThe first week of June was marked by weak macroeconomic data, which triggered profit-taking. The domestic market wasno exception. The PX Index closed the week at 1,232 points, down 0.6% w/w. Investors followed US macroeconomicdata and rating agencies announcements. For example, Moodys mentioned a potential US rating downgrade if noagreement is reached on budgetary needs and gradual budget deficit cuts. The anticipated US monthly unemploymentreport came in below expectations (54 thousand jobs vs. exp. +162 thousand).The local market monitored events around Sazka, which showed up in the stock price of Fortuna. The stock almost reachedCZK 150 during the week, finishing at CZK 134 (+3.8% w/w) as the biggest gainer of the week. NWR, by contrast, wasthe most declining stock (-12.3% to CZK 240.3) after BXR (majority owner of NWR) offered up to 16m shares for sale tomeet investors demand in anticipation of potential inclusion of the stock in the FTSE 250 index. As a result, the positiveeffect of higher demand upon the potential inclusion was counterbalanced. In addition, the upcoming IPO of Polish peerJSW (end of June) could be a potentially negative factor. Index Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W High PX 1,232 -0.6 0.1 0.6 8.5 1,100 1,276 Wien (ATX) 2,764 0.6 -4.3 -4.8 21.9 2,217 3,001 Warsaw (WIG 20) 2,884 0.6 7.1 4.6 22.5 2,271 2,933 Budapest (BUX) 23,076 0.1 1.5 8.4 8.4 20,221 24,451 Euro Stoxx50 2,789 -1.1 -6.5 -0.6 9.2 2,508 3,068 Dow Jones 12,151 -2.3 0.8 5.0 22.3 9,686 12,811 S&P500 1,300 -2.3 -0.5 3.4 22.1 1,023 1,364 Nasdaq 2,733 -2.3 -0.2 2.6 23.1 2,092 2,874COMPANY NEWSCEZ ndThe ongoing shut-down of the 2 unit of Temelin will be extended by two weeks vs. the original plan. The delay isdue to technical problems. We had already informed about this last week and consider the news neutral.CEZs shares went ex-dividend on 3 June. The dividend approved by the general meeting from 2010 profit is CZK50/share (5.30% gross div. yield). The dividend record day is on 7 June and the payment day falls on 1 August.According to the Czech National Bank, CEZs managers sold in aggregate 450,000 shares of the company from 27May to 1 June 2011. CEO Martin Roman was one of the sellers. Sale of shares by members of management could beperceived negatively by the market but we believe that given the significant stock price growth in the past few monthssuch sale could be expected.Pegas NonwovensPegas Nonwovens announced an investment in a new production facility in Egypt. Initial costs are estimated toreach EUR 55-60m. The investment depends on an agreement with a major customer, which is interested in thecompanys production in the Middle East. The contract should be signed within the next few months. According to a pressrelease, in the first phase, Pegas plans to build a production line with an annual capacity of 20kt, which should belaunched in 2H 2013. If markets conditions are favourable, a second line could be added (2015-2016).Details about how the acquisition will be funded were not released but the funding should be done through own sourcesor bank loans. We do not expect a share issue. The investment should not jeopardize the progressive dividend policy ofthe company, as confirmed in the 1Q11 conference call.A new production facility will be an entry point for
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