WEEKLY SUMMARY May 16 - 20, 2011 Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W High PX 1,255 -0.8 0.6 2.5 9.9 1,097 1,276 CZK/EUR 24.47 -0.2 -0.4 2.7 5.7 23.99 26.02 CZK/USD 17.28 0.1 4.5 9.5 19.9 16.27 21.81 PRIBOR 6M 1.57% 1bp 0bp 1bp 5bps 1.47% 1.58% 10Y GB 3.75/20 3.83% 4bps -22bps -7bps -26bps 3.23% 4.35% Prague Stock Exchange Close w/w (%) AAA Auto 25.5 -1.4 CME 390 0.0 CEZ 947 -1.5 ECM 40 -10.2 Erste 824 -0.8 Fortuna 117 -0.4 KB 4,150 -0.2 KITD 208 2.0 NWR 282 -0.2 Orco 230 0.7 Pegas 446 0.5 PMCR 9,277 -1.3 TEF 416 -0.3 Unipetrol 182 -3.0 VIG 961 -2.6 Equity Bonds CZK m 6,026 3,986 EUR m 246.5 163.0 Source: Bloomberg, PSE, ATLANTIK FT HEADLINES ONE-WEEK OUTLOOK NWR - 1Q11 results disappointing on all levels - Highlights from conference call - Acceptance of share offer reaches 98% VIG - No surprise in 1Q11 results Pegas Nonwovens - Projection of 1Q11 results Erste Group - Shares traded ex-dividend - Bank wants to repay participation capital by end June CEZ - Stress tests on German nuclear power plants KIT Digital - New contract in China ECM - 1Q11 results worse on all levels - Company files its own insolvency petitions - Astin Capital Management filed claim of CZK 3.1bn The 1Q earnings season is drawing to an end. Moreover, no big macroeconomic data are on the agenda this week. We therefore expect stagnation or slight decline. Markets will watch for further developments on commodity markets and possible unexpected meetings regarding the European debt crisis. S&P's cut in the rating outlook for Italy should be responsible for negative mood in particular at the beginning of the week. The domestic earnings season will continue on Thursday with the results of Pegas, Orco and AAA Auto. We expect Pegas to announce a decline in EBITDA of 5.3% to EUR 8.4m, mainly owing to the price-setting mechanism (higher polymer prices will be reflected first in costs and then in revenues). Investors will watch for a commentary on potential acquisitions. We believe the numbers alone will be neutral but an indication of acquisitions could trigger some activity. This week will not be very rich in macroeconomic releases. A report of US durable goods orders will be released on Wednesday (exp. -2.4% from +2.5%) and the 1Q GDP revision on Thursday (exp. to be revised up to 2.2% from 1.8%). Last but not least, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due on Friday (expected stagnation at 72.4 points). In Germany the Ifo Business Climate Index on Tuesday and the 1Q11 GDP will be followed. 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21/04 29/04 6/05 13/05 20/05 Index CZK m PX
Equity Bonds CZK m 6,026 3,986 EUR m 246.5 163.0 Source: Bloomberg, PSE, ATLANTIK FT
HEADLINES ONE-WEEK OUTLOOK NWR - 1Q11 results disappointing on all levels
- Highlights from conference call
- Acceptance of share offer reaches 98%
VIG - No surprise in 1Q11 results
Pegas Nonwovens - Projection of 1Q11 results
Erste Group - Shares traded ex-dividend
- Bank wants to repay participation capital by end June
CEZ - Stress tests on German nuclear power plants
KIT Digital - New contract in China
ECM - 1Q11 results worse on all levels
- Company files its own insolvency petitions
- Astin Capital Management filed claim of CZK 3.1bn
The 1Q earnings season is drawing to an end. Moreover, no big macroeconomic data are on the agenda this week. We therefore expect stagnation or slight decline. Markets will watch for further developments on commodity markets and possible unexpected meetings regarding the European debt crisis. S&P's cut in the rating outlook for Italy should be responsible for negative mood in particular at the beginning of the week.
The domestic earnings season will continue on Thursday with the results of Pegas, Orco and AAA Auto. We expect Pegas to announce a decline in EBITDA of 5.3% to EUR 8.4m, mainly owing to the price-setting mechanism (higher polymer prices will be reflected first in costs and then in revenues). Investors will watch for a commentary on potential acquisitions. We believe the numbers alone will be neutral but an indication of acquisitions could trigger some activity.
This week will not be very rich in macroeconomic releases. A report of US durable goods orders will be released on Wednesday (exp. -2.4% from +2.5%) and the 1Q GDP revision on Thursday (exp. to be revised up to 2.2% from 1.8%). Last but not least, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due on Friday (expected stagnation at 72.4 points). In Germany the Ifo Business Climate Index on Tuesday and the 1Q11 GDP will be followed.
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EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE
MARKET NEWS The week No. 20 was marked by volatile trading. The PX Index closed the week at 1,255 points, down 0.8%. Media reports were all about commodities again, although the commodity markets got relatively stabilized. We must not forget the arrest of IMF chief Strauss-Kahn, which could complicate things are regards the voting on another rescue package for relevant European countries, favoured by Strauss-Kahn, and investors' perception of this development. Last but not least, the IPO of LinkedIn is worth mentioning as its shares posted an increase of over 100% on their first trading day. KIG Digital was the star of the week (+1.2%, CZK 207.5) on the PSE, still influenced by earnings results and positive commentaries of the management on future consolidation. In addition, KITD got a large contract in China. By contrast, ECM was the most declining stock (-11.1%, CZK 40.2). The insolvency proceeding against the company is in progress. Further steps, taken with an aim to restructure the company, will probably continue to put pressure on the stock.
The earnings results for 1Q11 reported last Wednesday fell short of market expectations on all levels and we expect a negative market reaction. Only sales came in as expected by market. Since NWR had already published production volumes and prices in April, the sales were not surprising. In year-on-year comparison, sales were up 17.1% y/y at EUR 384.8m, boosted by growing prices of coal and coke. The price of coking coal reached EUR 159/t in 1Q11 (+62.2% y/y) and steam coal was sold at EUR 70/t (+11.0% y/y). The price of coke even surged by 74.6% to EUR 337/t. The negative factor was the proportion of coking coal and steam coal volumes, when the company produced more steam coal at the expenses of the coking coal, its main commodity. Operating costs increased to EUR 335.4m (+10.8% y/y), less in comparison with our projection, as we had calculated with higher personnel costs. Material and energy costs were up 11.1% y/y at EUR 99m, service expenses up 17.2% y/y at EUR 90.9m and personnel costs increased by 3.5% y/y to EUR 96m. EBITDA came in at EUR 81.6m (+42.3% y/y), falling short of market expectations of EUR 48.3m by 11.5% and almost in line with our projection (+2.4%). EBIT of EUR 37.6m (+110% y/y) was below market expectations by 22.1%. We had expected EBIT of 33.5m due to higher expected costs. The company generated net income of EUR 3.4m, after a loss of EUR 15.6m in 1Q10, falling short of expectations of EUR 20.8m by 85.6%. We had expected EUR 7.9m. The notable difference between the market consensus and the actual figure can be ascribed to the items described above. The difference compared to our estimate is due to higher-than-expected tax. The management repeated production and sales goals for 2011.
EUR thousand 1Q11 1Q10 y/y cons. J&T
Sales 384,799 328,563 17.1% 384,300 384,576
EBITDA 81,583 57,324 42.3% 92,200 79,683
EBIT 37,644 17,907 110.2% 48,300 33,534
Net income 3,437 -15,635 n.a. 20,800 7,900
Source: NWR, J&T Banka, market
NWR held a conference call to discuss 1Q11 earnings results. The highlights are as follows:
NWR sees strong demand in the region and expects prices of coal to be at high levels in 3Q11.
The trend of lower volumes of coking coal should reverse in the second half of the year when the company expects a rise in production volumes, in particular in the fourth quarter. The full-year production target of 11mt
EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE
coal (the same volumes of steam and coking coal) remains unchanged. In the subsequent year (2012) the proportion should change to 60:40 in favour of the coking coal.
The Debiensko project in Poland is underway as expected. Mining should be launched in 2015/2016 (2.5mt), and it is expected that most (80%) of the coal will be coking coal. More information about the project will be announced in June.
After its reincorporation in Great Britain, NWR should be included in the FTSE index in June as expected.
As to potential acquisitions, NWR is monitoring mostly Polish and Ukrainian markets. The IPO of JSW, the largest miner of coking coal in the EU, will be the nearest event.
The management also provided information about the outlook. It is confident that the goals for this year are achievable. Nothing major was said. VIG
Last Tuesday Vienna Insurance Group (VIG) published its consolidated earnings results for 1Q 2011, which are in line with our expectations on all levels. Net profit reached EUR 109m, i.e. 7.8% y/y. Gross written premiums increased by 2.9% to EUR 6,603m, mostly thanks to growth in the non-life insurance segment. Regarding earnings guidance the company reiterated that this year it expects pre-tax profit to grow by 10% and written premiums to grow in the low single digits. Overall, we rate the results as neutral. The company again confirmed the stability of its performance. We consider the affirmed guidance for this year quite conservative and the company should not have any difficulty beating it.
EUR m 1Q 2011 y/y 1Q 2010 J&T Banka e Market
Gross written premiums 2,603 2.9% 2,531 2,620 2,601
Net earned premiums 2,079 1.5% 2,047 2,097 2,170
Investment income 253 -18.4% 310 265 273
Expenses for claims incurred -1,680 -2.8% -1,728 -1,731 -
Operating expenses -457 2.1% -448 -456 -
Profit before tax 143 7.0% 133 138 139
Net profit* 109 7.8% 101 107 106
Source: VIG, projection of J&T Banka; *after minorities
EXPECTED EARNINGS RESULTS Pegas Nonwovens
Manufacturer of nonwoven textiles Pegas Nonwovens will report 1Q11 results on Thursday 26 May.
Earnings will be significantly impacted by a major increase in polymer price indices. We expect the higher prices to be reflected in operating expenses at once while the prices of final production should lag behind. Given the firming of the koruna against the euro we expect a profit on the financial level.
Total sales should be up 19.2% at EUR 41m compared to the same period a year ago. Sales volumes should stay about the same but we expect increased product prices.
Operating expenses will be affected by higher prices of polymers, the key raw material used by the company. Their price grew by about 14% in 1Q11. EBITDA should show a decline of 5.3% y/y to EUR 8.4m. Depreciation charges should be down in comparison with previous quarters (approx. EUR 4m) at EUR 2.5m as Pegas extended the life-span of manufacturing assets effective from 1 January 2011, thus reducing depreciation and amortisation costs. That should boost EBIT, which we expect at EUR 5.9m (+23.3% y/y).
Financial items should have a positive impact on the final result, mainly thanks to the FX effect. Thanks to the appreciation of the koruna against the euro we expect a gain from the revaluation of the euro-denominated debt (EUR 2.5m). Debt service costs should reach EUR 0.9m. The company is projected to post net income of EUR 6.7m in 1Q11. The 12.0% y/y decline is due to a considerable increase in currency gains in 1Q10.
Besides the earnings figures, investors will be interested in information about a potential acquisition. The management is expected to cast more light on that during 2Q11 and it could do so at the time of the earnings release.
The target for full-year EBITDA of 2 – 7% should be confirmed.
EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE
IFRS cons. (EUR thousand) J&T e1Q11 y/y 1Q10
Sales 41,010 19.2% 34,399
EBITDA 8,372 -5.3% 8,837
margin 20.4% -5.3pps 25.7%
EBIT 5,872 23.3% 4,763
margin 14.3% 0.5pps 13.8%
Net income 6,729, -12.0% 7,650 Source: Pegas Nonwovens, J&T Banka
COMPANY NEWS NWR NWR announced that another 2,769,054 shares accepted the share offer. The total rate of acceptance is 259,549,442 of existing A shares, i.e. more than 98% of the A shares issued. Trading in the new shares commenced last Friday (20 May) in London and Prague and today (23 May) in Warsaw. Note that the offer is related to reincorporation to UK and the subsequent qualification for the FTSE index. We consider the news neutral.
Erste Group Erste Group's shares went ex-dividend last Tuesday (EUR 0.7 per share; gross div. yield of 2%). According to Andreas Treichel (CEO of Erste Group), the bank is aiming to repay EUR 1.2bn in state participation capital by the end of June. In our view, this step should not significantly comprom ise the bank’s capitalization. However, given the fact that Erste has had lower capital adequacy than most competitors in the region, the step may slightly increase market fears from a future capital increase due to Basel III requirements.
CEZ German environment minister Norbert Roettgen presented a report on the safety of nuclear power plants. Politicians will base their decision regarding the future of nuclear energy in Germany on this report and the decision should be made on 6 June. According to the document, Germany needs to improve security at its nuclear plants against external flooding and airplane crash. The results of stress tests performed on reactors that had been switched off (8 out of 17) were less favourable than in the case of newer reactors. According to the minister, the results do not give grounds for an immediate exit from nuclear industry. In our opinion, market has already priced in that the switched-off reactors will not be restarted. The question whether Germany will fully exit atomic energy by 2022 as announced remains open. KIT Digital The company announced that it had signed a contract with a consortium of Chinese televisions to provide a platform for distributing video content. More details or the size of the transaction were not released. However, we assume that the contract is quite large enabling the company to penetrate more the Chinese market. ECM ECM REI filed its own bankruptcy petition, according to the company's statement. This comes after the insolvency petitions filed by Ceska sporitelna and Volksbank on grounds of unpaid obligations of ECM were joined by Glancus Investments and Conseq. ECM said that reorganization through insolvency proceedings would speed up some transactions and negotiations with creditors. This step is one of the possibilities presented with the release of 2010 results. Please note that trading in shares of a company in insolvency proceedings may be suspended or terminated by the Prague Stock Exchange. ECM REI published 1Q11 earnings results last Wednesday before market close. In comparison with 1Q10, the results further deteriorated on all levels. The operating loss deepened from EUR 2m to EUR 7.1m and the net loss more than doubled from EUR -6m to EUR -12.4m. The value of assets further declined compared to the end of 2010 while obligations of the company rose, and therefore the equity value further fell from EUR -73m to EUR -85m. No commentary on the ongoing insolvency proceedings was given. We consider the results negative. IFRS, EUR m 1Q11 y/y 1Q10
Net rental and related income -0.8 - 2.0
Income from sales of investment property 0.0 0% 0.0
Revaluation on investment prop. -1.8 - -0.9
Net operating result -7.1 - -2.0
Net financial result -10.5 - -5.0
EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE
Net profit -12.4 - -6.0
Source: ECM REI Astin Capital Management filed a claim totalling CZK 3.1bn against ECM on Friday. ECM was to pay Astin Capital Management interest of CZK 116m last October and the principal became due last week. Other creditors include Ceska sporitelna (CZK 194m), Glancus Investments (CZK 140.8m) and Volksbank (CZK 104.8m). ECM wants to resolve its indebtedness by restructuring. Last week, ECM joined other creditors and filed an insolvency petition against itself.
MARKET IN FIGURES
Market Volume (CZK m) Change (%) (EUR m) Change (%) (USD m) Change (%) 6,026.1 -23.8 246.5 -23.6 350.8 -21.2
Note: Percentage change relative to the average weekly volume over the past six months
Close w/w 3m y/y 52W Weekly volume (%) (%) rel. (%)* (%) rel. (%)* Low High CZK m rel. (%)
MARKET COMMENT In the third week of May trading activity in VUB picked up. The shares found support at EUR 80 and most trades were executed well above it. After climbing to EUR 85 on Thursday the stock closed the week at EUR 81, i.e. up 1.25% w/w. At that price, the P/E multiple is 7, which is quite attractive.
TMR added 0.7% last week, closing at EUR 40.30. BHP gained 0.2% to EUR 11.18. After a recent decline, Slovnaft's shares are still seeking a new market price and no trade was executed last week. Biotika grew by 10% to EUR 18.90.
The SAX Index closed the week at 230.59 points, flat week-on-week. Traded volumes reached EUR 930 thousand. The most traded stock was TMR, followed by BHP and VUB.
CZK/EUR The koruna continued weakening against the euro last week, moving from 24.4 to a 6-week low of 24.51 on Friday. Other regional currencies more or less stagnated, not responding to the released macroeconomic data (PPI, current account). The increased nervousness on financial market was probably the decisive factor. We still expect rather calm and stable trading, and the koruna could weaken further in the short term (24.6). By the end of the summer the koruna could get stabilized around 24.2-24.6. The long-term outlook remains unchanged and we expect to see the Czech currency firm to 23.8 by the end of the year. CZK/USD The koruna was hovering around 17.20 per USD all week. It stopped weakening in connection with only a minimum change in CZK/EUR and stabilization on the euro-dollar market. Higher volatility will probably continue and the dollar could continue correcting its losses (17.80?). In the long term (months) rather than a clear trend we expect to see higher volatility within CZK 16-20 per USD. USD/EUR The euro went through certain consolidation after the previous depreciation and moved from 1.410 to 1.434. However, at the end of the week nervousness returned to financial markets, fuelled by another cut in Greece's rating by Fitch and a cut in a rating outlook for Italy by S&P. Euro weakened to 1,415, erasing previous weekly gains. The continuing technical correction and renewed risk regarding the eurozone debt crisis may continue to put pressure on the euro. The next important level will be 1.38. Data from German economy due on Tuesday (GDP structure, Ifo index) may be important.
Bond Market Volume (CZK m) change (%) (EUR m) change (%) (USD m) change (%) 3,985.9 -60.3 163.0 -60.1 232.0 -58.7 Note: Percentage change relative to the average weekly volume over the past six months
Commodity markets posted slight gains last week. Major indices rose by 1%, mainly thanks to agricultural commodities (7% w/w). The dollar stopped firming and stagnated against the euro. Sentiment on stock markets was negative and markets posted slight losses for a third week in a row. Crude oil stayed at key levels without much effort – WTI (USD 100), Brent (USD 112). Similarly, precious metals and base metals stagnated on average. Agricultural commodities were driven by grains – wheat (+16% w/w), corn (12%) – supported by unfavourable weather in the USA a Europe, which poses a big risk for this year's crops.
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