+ All Categories
Home > Documents > ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a*...

ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a*...

Date post: 04-Apr-2019
Category:
Upload: hoangliem
View: 218 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
47
ZPRÁVA O INFLACI ČERVENEC 1998
Transcript
Page 1: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

ZPRÁVA O INFLACI

ČERVENEC 1998

Page 2: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

!"#$%&

!" #$%&'() *

!!"+,-,./+!&01234 5

!!!"+678129&)+!&012:&)+028(.%; <

!!!"*"+=>?@AB+ABA@C <

!!!"*"*"+DE?>F?G+HIJEIKLM <

!!!"*"N"+OA>JM+P@QRML?SLT+P@U?VRWX+H @YMAHLEZQLAS [

!!!"*"5"+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM *]

!!!"*"5"*"+8JKLR@U@YT+^J@R@AT+QH\YM **

!!!"*"5"N"+9Z@S_@U@YT+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+ *5

!!!"*"5"5"+8ZVE?LQRT+^J@R@AT+QH\YM *`

!!!"*"a"+9EAV\@AB+RSJ\ *`

!!!"*"`"+8HPVLKZ@AT+L@RM *b

!!!"N"+D@PLKARH+H ?HYGURH+ *<

!!!"N"*"+,\LH_+P@PLKARM+H ?HYGURM *<

!!!"N"N"+9@XKcG+P@PLKARH *d

!!!"N"N"*"+#P@LeEYH+U@XKc?@QLG *[

!!!"N"N"N"+!?AEQLVcE+ N]

!!!"N"N"5"+#P@LeEYH+AZKUM+ N*

!!!"N"5"+:VQLK+\H_JH?Vf?G+P@PLKARH N*

!!!"N"a"+,BQLSP+ N5

!!!"5"+(J_+PJKcEg+PeGCXM+U@XKc?@QLG N`

!!!"5"*"+,BA@C+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLG+ N`

!!!"5"N"+6HX>QL?H?@QL+H ?E\HX>QL?H?@QL N<

!!!"a"+.QLHL?G+?KRZHU@AT+V?UVRKL@JM Nd

!!!"a"*"+3E?M+ABJ@YcW Nd

!!!"a"N"+9@A@\?G+cE?M+ 5]

!,"+.D2(h4&)+=i&.,j+D.1!(!8;+2 !&012:&)+,-$149 5*

!,"*"+,BA@C+V?kZHcE+H CECG+UELEJXV?H?LM+l+Q_J?SLG+_ZHA?Gc_+LE?UE?cG+ 5*

!,"N"+%EHRcE+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM 5N

!,"5"+0HRL@JM+YSU@ScG+V?kZHcE+ 5N

!,"a"+DJ@I?m\H+V?kZHcE 5a

676&2=;+6 /49&7&)+n2&8.,&)+%29;+:&n 5`

6K\?HX+\ CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUM+U?E+5]"+a"+*[[d 5`

6K\?HX+\ CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUM+U?E+Nd"+`"+*[[d 5b

6K\?HX+\ CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUM+U?E+N"+<"+*[[d 5d

6K\?HX+\ CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUM+U?E+*b"+<"+*[[d 5[

Page 3: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

(2n'18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a*

(HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a*

(HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN

(HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5

(HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE aa

(HY"+f" 5Y+D@Z@FRM+AMZSf@AH?T+\ 3D!+PJ@+ABP@fEL+ofVQLT+V?kZHcEp a`

(HY"+f" a+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M+A fZE?>?G+?H+@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?T+H ?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?T ab

(HY"+f" `+=E\V?KJ@U?G+PeE_ZEU+l+QP@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a<

(HY"+f" b+=>?@AB+PeE_ZEU ad

(HY"+f" <+,BA@C+^A>J@AT+EXVQE a[

(HY"+f" <+:ZE?>?G+^A>JW+UZE+fHQSg+QERL@JW+H UJS_W+ a[

(HY"+f" d+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+\ XE\VYH?R@A?Gc_+ARZHUW `]

(HY"+f" [+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+0%2 `*

(HY"+f" [+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+!%# `*

(HY"+f" *]+%EKZ?T+^J@R@AT+QH\YM `N

(HY"+f" **+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+@Yc_@U?Gc_+YH?R `5

(HY"+f" *N+DZHLEY?G+YVZH?cE `a

(HY"+f" *5+!?AEQLVf?G+P@\VcE+AWfV+\H_JH?VfG ``

(HY"+f" *a+6H_JH?Vf?G+\HUZSFE?@QL `b

(HY"+f" *`+9EAV\@AB+RSJ\ `<

(HY"+f" *b+#LKL?G+J@\P@fEL `d

(HY"+f" *<+8HPVLKZ@AB+LJ_ `[

(HY"+f" *d+=>?@A>+P@ZVLVcRT+?KQLJ@CE+:&n b]

(HY"+f" *[+=HRJ@ER@?@XVcRT+HIJEIKLM b*

(HY"+f" N]+n>F?T+PeGCXM+H ABUHCE+U@XKc?@QLG bN

(HY"+f" N*+DJ@USRcE bN

(HY"+f" NN+3E?M+ABJ@YcW b5

Page 4: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE
Page 5: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'( #%)*+,-

,BA@C+ V?kZHcE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+YMZ+P@UQLHL?>+PeG\?VA>CqG+?EF+AE+fLAJLZELG+PJA?GX"+D@fG?HCE+USY?EXgU@qZ@+ RE+ \P@XHZE?G+ LEXP+ JWQLS+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcE+ V V?UErS+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?"+ =E\VJ@f?G+ fVQLK+ V?kZHcEP@RZEQZH+\E+<g[ s+A YeE\?S+?H+bg`+s+A fEJA?S+H XE\VJ@f?G+JWQL+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+QE+Q?GFVZ+\ *5ga+s?H+*N+s"+=E\VJ@f?G+fVQLK+V?kZHcE+LHR+A fEJA?S+P@PJAT+U@QK_ZH+_@J?G+_JH?VcE+RJKLR@U@YT_@+V?kZHf?G_@cGZE+QLH?@AE?T_@+PJ@+J@R+*[[dg+c@F+?H+R@?cV+*"+P@Z@ZELG+AMLAKeGg+QP@ZS+Q cEZR@A@S+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcR@SQVLSHcGg+U@YJT+PeEUP@RZHUM+PJ@+CE_@+QPZ?>?G"+6KRZHU?GX+JMQEX+N"+fLAJLZELG+CE+LEUM+P@LAJ\E?G+QLeEU?>U@lYT_@+ UEQV?kZHf?G_@+ LJE?USg+ RLEJB+ CE+ A Q@SZHUS+ Q UZ@S_@U@YBXV+ \KX>JM+ X>?@AT+ P@ZVLVRM+ :&n", *" fLAJLZELG+ LJE?U+Q?VF@AK?G+ V?kZHcE+?EYMZ+ CEqL>+U@QLHLEf?>+\eELEZ?Bg+c@F+ QE+@UJKFEZ@+ V A @YE\eEL?TX_@U?@cE?G+@YQHFE?TX+A USY?@AT+6PJKA>+@ V?kZHcV"+(HL@+fEJAE?c@AK+6PJKAH+@ V?kZHcV+U@RZKUK+\ZEPq@lAK?G+P@UXG?ER+PJ@+U@QHFE?G+P@FHU@AH?T_@+ABA@CE+V?kZHcEg+PeVfEXF+JW\?K+JV\VRH+H ?ECVQL@LM+YSU@ScG_@ABA@CE+QE+_@U?@LG+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q *"+fLAJLZELGX+CHR@+XT?>+\KAHF?K"+

DJ@YG_HCGcG+PJ@cEQ+UEQV?kZHcE+CE+U@+\?Hf?T+XGJM+UWQZEUREX+P@RJHfSCGcG_@+?HJ@A?KAK?G+A?VLe?Gc_+V A?>ClqGc_+?EJ@A?@AK_g+?H+?>XF+QE+ABJH\?BX+\PWQ@YEX+QP@ZSP@UGZEZM+JEQLJVRLVA?G+X>?@AK+H kVQRKZ?G+P@ZVLVRH"9EQV?kZHf?G+kHRL@JM+PWQ@YVZM+CHR+?H+QLJH?>+P@PLKARMg+LHR+?H+QLJH?>+?HYGURM"+8 @Y?@A@AK?G+XHRJ@ER@?@lXVcRBc_+PJ@P@JcGg+RLEJT+\HP@fHZ@+AE+LeELGX+fLAJLZELG+*[[<g+PeVQP>Z+P@RZEQ+AqEc_+QZ@FER+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMA PJA?GX+fLAJLZELG+*[[d"+D@RZEQ+JEKZ?Bc_+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLG+H J@QL@ScG+?ECVQL@LM+?H+LJ_S+PJKcE+YMZM+_ZHAl?GXV+PeGfV?HXV+XE\VJ@f?G_@+P@RZEQS+QP@LeEYM+U@XKc?@QLG+@ *gb+s"+D@X>J?>+QVZ?K+J@\P@fL@AK+JEQLJVRcE@UQLHJL@AH?K+QLHYVZV\Hf?GXV+YHZGfRM+A J@cE+*[[<+H UHZqGXV+ABUHC@ABXV+qRJLM+Q?GFVZH+ABUHCE+AZKUM+XE\VlJ@f?>+@ Ng<+s"+2 R@?Ef?>+XE\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+ABUHCW+@ Ng`+s+\H+PJA?G+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+AMA@ZK?PeELJAKAHCGcG+^J@A?G+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EYg+Q?VF@AK?GX+AZHQL?Gc_+\UJ@CW+kV?H?c@AK?G+V?AEQLVcg+@YE\eEL?>CqGXPeGQLSPEX+@Yc_@U?Gc_+YH?R+R ^A>J@AK?G+P@U?VR@AT_@+ QERL@JS+H @fERKAK?GX+?VFqG_@+_@QP@UKeQRT_@JWQLS+A YSU@Sc?@QLV"+D@RZEQ+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+YMZ+UWZEFVLBX+H P@\VLVA?GX+PJAREX+QLHYVZV\HcE+_@QP@UKelQRT_@+ABA@CE+A P@QZEU?GX+@YU@YG"+DeVQP>Z+CEU?HR+R @QZHYE?G+P@PLKAR@ABc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRW+H \KJ@AEtRE+Q?GFE?G+\KP@J?T_@+QHZUH+fVQLT_@+ABA@\S+\Y@FG+H QZSFEY"+,\_ZEUEX+R L@XSg+FE+LEXP@+JWQLS+ABA@\S\Y@FG+H QZSFEY+fV?VZ@+XE\VJ@f?>+A *" fLAJLZELG+LTX>e+Nd+s+H LEXP@+JWQLS+U@A@\S+P@S\E+*<+sg+QLKAK+QEA Q@SfHQ?@QLV+ fVQLB+ ErP@JL+ CEUV?BX+ kHRL@JEX+_@QP@UKeQRT_@+ JWQLS"+&G\RK+ ^J@AEt+ P@PLKARM+ QE+ @UJKFGV A X>?@ATX+ ABA@CV"+ ! PeEQ+ SJfVLT+ \JMc_ZE?G+ A fEJA?Sg+ QE+ ABA@C+ PE?>F?G+ \KQ@YM+ AE+ UJS_TX+ fLAJLZELGAM\?Hf@AHZ+?G\RBXV+?@XV?KZ?GXV+XE\VJ@f?GXV+PeGJWQLRM"+D@QLSP?T+\PZ@qu@AK?G+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARM+PE?>Fl?G_@+LJ_S+PeEc_K\ECGcG+A P@QZEU?GX+@YU@YG+U@+V?AEJ\?G_@+LAHJS+QA>UfG+@ P@QLSP?TX+k@JX@AK?G+PeG\?VlABc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G"+

8 SLZSXE?G+ V?kZHf?Gc_+ LZHRW+ PeVQP>Z@+ AEUZE+ JEQLJVRcE+ P@PLKARM+ V PWQ@YE?G+ kHRL@JW+ ?H+ QLJH?>+ ?HYGURM"8 _ZHA?GX+UELEJXV?H?LKX+?KRZHU@ABc_+LZHRW+PHLeG+ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\Sg+ABA@C+cE?+R@X@UVL+?H+QA>lL@ABc_+LJ\Gc_g+ABA@C+JEZHcE+XE\V+LEXPM+JWQLS+JEKZ?Bc_+XE\U+H PJ@USRLVAVLM+PJKcE+H R@?Ef?>+ABA@C+cE?PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcWg+RLEJB+A R@?LErLS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+PWQ@YG+CHR@+?KRZHU@AB+kHRL@J"+&@XV?KZ?GRSJ\+R@JS?M+AWfV+?>XEcRT+XHJcE+P@+HPJEcVHcV+A *" fLAJLZELG+\WQLKAHZ+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+QLHYVZ?Gg+PeVfEXFU@QH_@AHZ+PJWX>J?T+^J@A?>+J@RS+*[[`"+D@U@Y?>+QE+AMAGCEZ+JEKZ?B+RSJ\+UEkZ@AH?B+V?UErEX+cE?+PJWXMlQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcWg+RLEJB+QE+A RA>L?S+PeVYZGFVZ+^J@A?V+\ ^?@JH+*[[<"+(HRT+JEKZ?B+RSJ\+UEkZ@AH?B+V?UErEXQP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+A *"+P@Z@ZELG+ HPJEcV@AHZ+ H PeER@?HZ+?ECAMqqG+ ^J@AEt+\ ^?@JH+*[[<+ CVF+P@fKLREXJ@RS+*[[d"+3E?M+QSJ@AV?@ABc_+R@X@UVL+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_+QE+AMAGCEZM+XVX@eKU?>+PeG\?VA>"+3E?@ABV?UEr+$vv2+\H+*"+P@Z@ZELG+*[[d+P@RZEQZ+XE\VJ@f?>+@ N]g*+sg+PeVfEXF+cE?M+E?EJIELVcRBc_+QSJ@AV?P@RZEQZM+ U@R@?cE+ @ N<g*+s"+%@A?>F+X\UM+ QE+ \ _ZEUVQRH+ ABA@CE+ V?kZHcE+ AMAGCEZM+ PeG\?VA>"+ 8 @Y?@A>FKU@ScGc_+ XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRBc_+ PJ@P@JcG+ U@c_K\EZ@+ UGRM+ SJMc_Z@AK?G+ JWQLS+ PJ@USRLVAVLM+ PJKcE+ AWfVJWQLS+JEKZ?Bc_+PJWX>J?Bc_+XE\U+V UGRM+J@QL@ScGXS+PeEUQLV_S+LEXPH+JWQLS+UEkZKL@JS+$9D+PeEU+LEXPEXJWQLS+CEU?@LR@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+?KRZHUW"+(E?L@+ABA@Cg+QLVXSZ@AH?B+ABqE+P@PQH?BX+PJ@QLeEUGX+A ER@?@lXVcEg+LJAHCGcG+CVF+PeVYZVF?>+CEUE?+J@R+AEUE+RE+\XGJ?>?G+UeGA>CqG_@+?HHRSXSZ@AH?T_@+H UZ@S_@U@Y>+?ESlUJFVLEZ?T_@+PeEUQLV_S+LEXPH+JWQLS+XE\U+PeEU+PJ@USRLVAVL@S+PJKcE"+

=VX@eKU?>+PeG\?VA>+ QE+ AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ AMAGCEZM+ cE?M+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW"+$ZHA?GXV+PeGfV?HXV+YMZHX>?@AK+JEQLJVRcEg+Q ?G+Q@SAVQECGcG+P@RZEQ+P@PLKARM+H Er@IE??>+UELEJXV?@AH?T+RZEQHCGcG+cE?M+?>RLEJBc_XHLEJVKZ@ABc_+AQLSPW"+&G\RT+XE\VX>QGf?G+PeGJWQLRM+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+\ USY?H+H RA>L?H+wAFUM@ ]g*+sx+PeEqZM+U@+P@RZEQS+@ ]g*+s+A fEJA?S"+=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+LHR+\P@XHZVZ\ bgb+s+A ^?@JS+?H+`gb+s+A fEJA?S"+:&n+@fERKAKg+FE+P@RZEQ+LEXPH+JWQLS+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcWYSUE+V ?HUKZE+PWQ@YVL+?H+P@RZEQ+LEXPH+JWQLS+V?UErS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+H fVQLT+V?kZHcE"+

*

Page 6: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

DeG\?VAB+ABA@C+V?kZHcE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+U@PJ@AK\E?+@QZHY@AK?GX+?>RLEJBc_+JV\VRg+RLEJK+YMZH+P@X>J?>QVZ?>+ A?GXK?H+ A USY?@AT+6PJKA>+@ V?kZHcV"+ ! RUMF+ CQ@S+U?EQ+X?@_K+ JV\VRH+XE?qGg+ ?HUKZE+ PeELJAKAHCGSJfVLT+?ECVQL@LM"+, PeGPHU>+A?>CqGc_+kHRL@JW+V?kZHcE+CUE+@ YSU@ScG+ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S+\ECXT?H+AEQP@CE?G+ Q ?ECVQL@LHXV+ A JEIV@?Ec_+ L\A"+ J@\AGCECGcGc_+ QE+ LJ_Wg+ \AZKqL>+ AE+ QLeEU?G+ H ABc_@U?G+ 4AJ@P>g\ ?Vc_F+CVF+VXPSZQM+RE+\X>?>+RSJ\S+R@JS?M+A XV?SZ@QLV+A\EqZM"+, U@XKcG+ER@?@XVcE+PeELJAKAHCG+SJfVLT?ECVQL@LM+ @_ZEU?>+ ErPH?\GA?@QLV+ kVQRKZ?G+ P@ZVLVRM+ H P@RJHf@AK?G+ P@\VLVA?G_@+ ABA@CE+ A @YZHQLV+X\U@ATUVQcVPZG?M"+D@RSU+YM+A L>c_L@+@YZHQLEc_+U@qZ@+RE+\_@JqE?Gg+ABA@C+V?kZHcE+YM+L@+@AZVA?VZ@+HF+A J@cE+*[[["+

:&n+@fERKAKg+FE+PeG\?VAT+UEQV?kZHf?G+LE?UE?cE+QE+YSU@S+PJ@QH\@AHL+V A N"+P@Z@AV?>+J@RS"+:VQLK+V?kZHcEYM+QE+X>ZH+?H+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[d+P@_MY@AHL+?HU+U@Z?G+XE\G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+AMXE\E?T_@+J@\P>LGX+`g`+sl+bg`+s"+(E?L@+ABA@C+:&n+P@AHFSCE+\H+PeVX>eE?B+A QVLSHcVg+RUM+ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S+H QA>L@AT+cE?MQSJ@AV?+PWQ@YG+CHR@+kHRL@JM+Q?GFE?G+V?kZHcEg+RLEJT+CQ@S+AqHR+P@LE?cVKZ?>+RJKLR@U@YT"+&EZ\E+PeEUP@RZKlUHLg+FE+@YH+LML@+kHRL@JM+YSU@S+PWQ@YVL+UZ@S_@U@Y>CV"+, PeGPHU>+\_@JqE?G+CECVc_+ABA@CE+A PeGqLGc_+X>QGlcGc_+YSUE+PJ@L@+ErVQL@AHL+SJfVLK+oJE\EJAHp+A PZ?>?G+RJKLR@U@YT_@+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE"+1\E+PJ@L@+R@?QLHL@AHLgFE+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+PJ@+J@R+*[[d+YSUE+Q AEZR@S+PJHAU>P@U@Y?@QLG+U@QHFE?@"+8 CE_@+@_J@FE?G+YM+X@_Z@U@CGL+P@S\E+A PeGPHU>+Er@IE??Gc_+q@RW+\?Hf?T_@+J@\QH_S"+,E+QLeEU?>U@YTX+_@JV\@?LS+:&n+@fERKAKP@RJHf@AK?G+ UEQV?kZHf?G_@+ PJ@cEQS+ Q LGXg+ FE+ fVQLK+ V?kZHcE+ RE+ R@?cV+ J@RS+ *[[[+ YSUE+ ?H+ LJHCERL@JVVAEU@ScG+PZM?SZE+RE+QPZ?>?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+A J@cE+N]]]+UEkV?@AH?T_@+J@\P>LGX+5g` s+l+`g`+s"+D@RSUCUE+ @ V?UEr+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?g+ :&n+ PeEUP@RZKUK+ ?KAJHL+XE\VJ@f?G_@+ LEXPH+ JWQLS+ ?H+ R@?cV+ J@RS*[[d+?H+^J@AEt+R@?cE+J@RS+*[[<+H Q?GFE?G+LEXPH+JWQLS+V?UErS+?H+CEU?@cVkEJ?@S+^J@AEt+CVF+\HfKLREXJ@RS+*[[["+9HZqG+Q?VF@AK?G+LEXPH+JWQLS+V?UErS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+YSUE+\KAVQEL+?H+LEXPS+\AMq@AK?GJEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?"+

N

Page 7: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

''(./0/!1.'*23$45

DJ@+ N"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ YMZ+ c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRB+ \eELEZ?B+ UEQV?kZHf?G+ ABA@C"+ =E\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_cE?g+RLEJB+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+U@QK_Z+*5ga+sg+QE+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+ Q?VF@AHZ+H RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H+fV?VZ*N s"+ (E?L@+ ABA@C+ YMZ+ @AZVA?>?+ PeEUEAqGX+ P@QLSP?>+ QE+ Q?VFSCGcG+XE\VJ@f?G+ fVQL@S+ V?kZHcG"+ #@SfHQ?>U@qZ@+R XGJ?TXS+Q?GFE?G+XE\VJ@f?G+XGJM+JWQLS+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+wLHY"+!!"*"x"

, P@J@A?K?G+ Q ABA@CEX+ A J@cE+ *[[<g+ RUM+ RE+ R@?cV+ J@RS+XE\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?+ U@QK_Z*] sg+ QE+ cE?@AB+ JWQL+ A PJA?Gc_+ UA@S+ X>QGcGc_+ J@RS+ *[[d+ \JMc_ZVZ"+ &H+ L@XL@+ \JMc_ZE?G+ QE+ P@UGZEZABJH\?B+ JWQL+ JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+H QH\EY+?EPeGXBc_+UH?G+A ZEU?S+ L@_@L@+ J@RS+H fKQLEf?>+ V ABA@C+fVQLTV?kZHcE"+6ABqE?G+XE\VJ@f?G+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+A ZEU?S+H ^?@JS+YMZ@+@AZVA?>?@+U@\?GAK?GX+^fV?RS+UEPJEcVHcER@JS?M+\ R@?cE+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS+H ?E@YAMRZE+QVZ?BX+U@PHUEX+RHFU@J@f?Gc_+^PJHA+XHZ@@Yc_@U?Gc_cE?+?H+P@fKLRS+J@RS"+DeGfV?@S+YMZ@+PJHAU>P@U@Y?>+PJ@XGL?SLG+AMqqGc_+?KRZHUW+QP@CE?Bc_+Q ^PJHAHXVJEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+H UH?G+R *"+*"+*[[d+H ?EPeG\?VAK+@fERKAK?G+UHZqG_@+cE?@AT_@+ABA@CE"+&H+J@\UGZ+@UL@_@L@+ ?EPeG\?VAT_@+ ABA@CE+ A P@fKLRS+ J@RSg+ P@fG?HCE+ YeE\?EX+ YMZ+ A UHZqGc_+X>QGcGc_+XE\VX>QGf?GcE?@AB+JWQL+AEZXV+?G\RBg+c@F+QE+PJ@XGLZ@+U@+@P>L@A?T_@+Q?GFE?G+_@U?@L+XE\VJ@f?G_@+JWQLS+QP@LeEYVLEZlQRBc_+ cE?+ A PJWY>_S+ N" fLAJLZELG+ J@RS+ V XE\VJ@f?G+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcEg+ RLEJK+ P@RZEQZH+ A fEJA?S+ P@U+ ^J@AEtR@?cE+J@RS+*[[<"

5

'8262(41 #8'(4:&.#(

*Ny[< *y[d Ny[d 5y[d ay[d `y[d by[d

=46!%.:&)+%z#(+#D.(h4n!(41#8-3$+34& *]g] *5g* *5ga *5ga *5g* *5g] *Ng]!"#$%& P@UGZ P@UGZ P@UGZ P@UGZ P@UGZ P@UGZ P@UGZ%EISZ@AH?T+cE?M NNg< agbN 5]gd bg5[ 5]g[ bga* 5*g] bgaN 5]g5 bg5] 5]g] bgNa N[g[ bg*`,ZVA+?EPeGXBc_+UH?G+A+?EJEI"+cE?Kc_ ]g]] ]g<] ]g<] ]g<] ]g<] ]g<] ]g<]:VQLK+V?kZHcE bgd `gaN <g` bg]] <g[ bg5* <g[ bg5N <gb bg]d <gb bg]< bg` `g*d

'"#$($&"l+cE?M+P@LJHAV? `gb *gdN bg] *g[< bgd NgNN <gN Nga] <gN Nga` <g` 5gN` `gd *g[bl+R@JVI@AH?K+V?kZHcE <gb 5gb] dg` ag]5 dgb ag][ dga 5g[N <g[ 5gb5 <g< NgdN bg[ 5gNN

!"#$%&3E?M+@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL bg5 ag]` <ga ag<< <g< ag[b <g< ag[` <g` ag<[ <ga ag<] bg* 5g[]3E?M+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL *bgd `g[[ N5gN dg5* N5g` dga` N5gb dgad NNg[ dgNd NNg[ dg5] NNg< dg*]

=)%2+!&01234+wJ@f?G+RZ@S\HAB+PJWX>Jx dg` dg[ [g` *]g] *]g` **g* **g`

)*+,"--,.,"/012*345"63*78"$"9:$#;8+<#8291=>(">840>(

Page 8: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

9SY?@AB+XE\VX>QGf?G+JWQL+w@ ]g5+sx+YMZ+ABJH\?>+@AZVA?>?+JWQLEX+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?"+8A>L?@AB+XE\VlX>QGf?G+JWQL+YMZ+AEZXV+?G\RB+w]g*+sx+A UWQZEURS+QE\m??Gc_+AZVAWg+fEJA?@AB+XE\VX>QGf?G+JWQL+w@ ]g5 sxYMZ+ ?H@PHR+ PeEUEAqGX+ UWQZEUREX+ \JMc_ZE?G+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcE"+ #E\m??>+ @fVqL>?B+ XE\VX>QGf?G+ JWQL+ wUZEABQZEURW+QE\m??G_@+@fVqL>?Gg+PSYZVR@AH?Bc_+:#Ox+U@QK_Z+A USY?S+H RA>L?S+Q_@U?>+]g5+s"+, fEJA?SYMZH+QE\m??>+@fVqL>?K+_@U?@LH+Q_@U?K+QE+QRSLEf?BX+^UHCEX"

6789:.7;<=>?@

=E\VJ@f?G+fVQLK+ V?kZHcE+QE+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+Q?GFVZH+\E+<g[+s+RE R@?cV+YeE\?H+?H+bg` s+RER@?cV+fEJA?H"+&H+L@XL@+ABA@CV+QE+P@UGZEZ+PeG\?VAB+ABA@C+@Y@S+QZ@FER+fVQLT+V?kZHcEg+cE?+P@LJHAV?+V ?EP@lLJHAV?KeQRT_@+\Y@FGg+ LC"+ R@JVI@AH?T+ V?kZHcE"+=E\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+ cE?+P@LJHAV?+P@+@fVqL>?G+@ HUXV?VQLJHLVA?GAZVAM+P@RZEQZ+\E+<gN+s+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+?H+`gd+s+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H"+=E\VJ@f?G+R@JVI@AH?K+ V?kZHcE+P@@fVqL>?G+@ HUXV?VQLJHLVA?G+AZVAM+QE+Q?GFVZH+\ dga+s+?H+bg[ s"

#?GFE?G+XE\VJ@f?G+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcE+AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ CE+ ABQZEUREX+ Q@SY>_S+PWQ@YE?G+?>R@ZVRH+ kHRL@JW"+DHLeGR ?VX+PeEUEAqGX+P@RZEQ+AqEc_+QZ@FER+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMg+R ?>XSF+U@qZ@+A UWQZEURS+JEQLJVRLVA?G+X>?@ATgkVQRKZ?G+ H UWc_@U@AT+ P@ZVLVRM"+ 6H+ P@UQLHL?B+ Z\E+ P@AHF@AHL+ PeEUEAqGX+ P@RZEQ+ Q@SRJ@XT+ QP@LeEYMU@XKc?@QLG+ \PWQ@YE?B+ P@RZEQEX+ CECVc_+ JEKZ?Bc_+ PeGCXW+ A PJWY>_S+ SPZM?SZBc_+ *N+ X>QGcW"+ ,BA@CU@XKcG+P@PLKARM+YMZ+ J@A?>F+@AZVA?>?+P@RZEQEX+ V?AEQLVf?G+fV??@QLV+A UWQZEURS+\_@JqSCGcG+ QE+ kV?H?f?GQVLSHcE+ P@U?VR@AT_@+ V AEeEC?T_@+ QERL@JSg+ ^J@A?>+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ H QVLSHcE+ ?H+ RHPVLKZ@ATX+ LJ_S"8 SLZSXE?G+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+PeVQP>Z+LHRT+ABA@C+AEeEC?Bc_+kV?H?cG"+#?H_H+@ XV?VXHZV\HcV+UEkVcVLS+AEeECl?Bc_+ kV?H?cG+ QE+PJ@XGLZH+U@+XE\VJ@f?G_@+P@RZEQS+ QP@LeEYM+AZKUM+H \PJ@QLeEUR@AH?>+@AZVA?VZH+ V ABA@CQP@LeEYM+U@XKc?@QLG"+# ABA@CEX+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+R@JEQP@?U@AHZ+ABA@C+PE?>F?G+\KQ@YM"+, ZELEc_+*[[bH *[[<+ U@qZ@+ R ABJH\?TXS+ Q?GFE?G+ XE\VJ@f?G_@+ LEXPH+ JWQLS+ PE?>F?Gc_+ HIJEIKLW+ AZVAEX+ SPZHL?>?TX>?@AT+JEQLJVRcE"+'AEUE?T+P@PLKAR@AT+kHRL@JM+YSU@S+PWQ@YVL+?H+cE?@AB+ABA@C+AE+QLeEU?>U@YTX+fHQ@lATX+_@JV\@?LS"

&H+P@RZEQS+XE\VJ@f?G+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+QE+AE+QZEU@AH?TX+@YU@YG+P@UGZEZM+J@A?>F+?KRZHU@AT+kHRL@JM"+DHLeGXE\V+?>+PeEUEAqGX+ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S"+&@XV?KZ?G+UEAV\@AB+RSJ\+A *" fLAJLZELG+P@QLSP?>+HPJEcV@lAHZ+H Q ?>R@ZVRHX>QGf?GX+\P@FU>?GX+PeVQPGAHZ+RE+LZSXE?G+?KRZHU@ABc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRW"+,EZXV+PeG\?VA>QE+AMAGCEZM+cE?M+QSJ@AV?+H P@LJHAV?+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_"+%@A?>F+ABA@C+XE\U+A P@QZEU?GX+@YU@YG+@AZVAlt@AHZ+ ?KRZHU@A@S+ V?kZHcV+ PeG\?VABX+ \PWQ@YEX"+ 6HLGXc@+ A ZELEc_+ *[[b+ H *[[<+ CEU?@LR@AT+X\U@AT?KRZHUM+J@QLZM+JMc_ZECV+?EF+UEkZKL@J+$9D+H AMLAKeEZM+LHR+X\U@A>+?KRZHU@AT+V?kZHf?G+LZHRMg+A P@QZEU?GX@YU@YG+U@c_K\G+AE+ABA@CV+SAEUE?Bc_+PJ@X>??Bc_+R @PHf?TXS+ABA@CV+H X\U@AT+LZHRM+?H+JWQL+cE?+QEQ?VFSCG"+(E?L@+LJE?U+CE+PHLJ?B+@U+a"+fLAJLZELG+XV?SZT_@+J@RS+H P@RJHf@AHZ+A ZEL@q?GX+*" fLAJLZELG"+DeG\?VA>QE+AE+QZEU@AH?TX+@YU@YG+AMAGCEZM+V cE?M+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcWg+AE+RLEJBc_+QE+PJ@XGLHCG+ABqE+SAEUE?TP@PLKAR@AT+V ?KRZHU@AT+AZVAMg+H RLEJT+\P>L?>+?KRZHU@A>+@AZVAtSCG+ABA@C+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?"+'AEUE?T?KRZHU@AT+kHRL@JM+PWQ@YVZM+?H+cE?@AB+ABA@C+A RJKLRTX+fHQ@ATX+_@JV\@?LS"+,BA@C+cE?+QSJ@AV?+H P@LJHlAV?+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_+H U@+CVQLT+XGJM+V ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S+PeVL@X+PeEUQLHASCG+Er@IE??G+kHRL@JMgCEF+CQ@S+XVX@+U@QH_+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM"

a

Page 9: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

,BJH\?>CqGXS+P@RZEQS+XE\VJ@f?G+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+?H+UJS_T+QLJH?>+YJK?VZ+QELJAHZB+JWQL+cE?+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZl?Bc_+?EJEISZ@AH?Bc_+R@X@UVL+wR@ZEX+*5 sxg+PeEUEAqGX+QZSFEY"+/ECVc_+ABA@C+YMZ+@AZVAt@AK?+U@+\?Hf?TXGJM+?KRZHU@ABXV+kHRL@JMg+\ECXT?H+AMQ@RBX+P@UGZEX+XE\U+H CECVc_+JWQLEX"

=E\VX>QGf?G+fVQLK+V?kZHcE+U@QK_ZH+A USY?S+]gN+sg+A RA>L?S+]g*+s+H A fEJA?S+]ga+s"+8 CECGX+?G\RBX_@U?@LKX+A USY?S+H RA>L?S+PeVQP>ZM+RJ@X>+ABqE+SAEUE?Bc_+kHRL@JW+V QE\m??G+AZVAM"+#E\m??>+@fVqL>?KXE\VX>QGf?G+USY?@AK+V RA>L?@AK+fVQLK+ V?kZHcE*y YMZH+]gN+s"+, fEJA?S+U@QK_ZH+QE\m??>+@fVqL>?K+_@Ul?@LH+]g]+s"

)@AB=CD>;E.?@;F.> >GH7;789I>97D;J.KLI>DF ?@;

=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+P@RZEQZ+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+\ 5*+s+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+?H+N[g[+sRE R@?cV+fEJA?H"

.PJ@LV+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[dg+RUM+\?Hf?>+A\J@QLZM+JEISZ@AH?T+cE?Mg+YMZM+\ABqE?M+QP@LeEY?G+UH?>+H Q?GFE?MU@LHcE+R ?>RLEJBX+cE?KXg+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+XE\VJ@f?G+JWQL+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+ABJH\?>CV+@AZVA?>?+P@S\EUSY?@ABX+ \ABqE?GX+ cE?+ LEZEk@??Gc_+ P@PZHLRW+ H ?EU@qZ@+ R FKU?BX+ HUXV?VQLJHLVA?GX+ ^PJHAKX"6 L@_@L@+UWA@US+YMZ+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+\H\?HXE?K?+AB\?HX?>CqG+XE\VX>QGf?G+JWQL+JEISZ@AH?Bc_cE?+P@S\E+A USY?S+w@ ]gb+sx"+, RA>L?S+U@QK_Z+XE\VX>QGf?G+JWQL+]g]+s+H A fEJA?S+]g*+s"+

4@;F.CM?NCGCD>9@=;O?N.> ;@CM?NCGCD>9@=;O?N.PCHCG79

,BA@C+ cE?+ @Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+ R@X@UVL+ CE+ J@\_@USCGcG+ X>J@S+ @AZVAt@AK?+ ^J@A?G+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARMgXE\V?KJ@U?G+R@?RSJE?cG+H RSJ\@ABXV+P@_MYM"+DJ@+ABA@C+cE?+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL+CQ@S+J@\_@lUSCGcGXV+kHRL@JM+ABA@C+P@PLKARM+H ?HYGURM+?H+U@XKcGX+QP@LeEYVLEZQRTX+LJ_S+H ABA@C+?KRZHU@ABc_+P@Z@lFER"+,E+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+P@RJHf@AHZ+JMc_ZECqG+JWQL+cE?+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL+?EF+@Yc_@U@AHLEZl?Bc_"+ DJ@+ Q?GFE?G+XE\VJ@f?G+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcE+ A PJWY>_S+ N"+ fLAJLZELG+X>Z+ J@\_@USCGcG+ AB\?HX+P@RZEQ+ cE?@QLHL?Gc_+@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVLg+RLEJB+QE+?H+SAEUE?TX+Q?GFE?G+P@UGZEZ+\ ``+s+wcEZR@AT+Q?GFE?GXE\VJ@f?G+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcE+ A fEJA?S+ @PJ@LV+ YeE\?S+ U@QK_Z@+ *ga+ PJ@cE?L?G_@+ Y@USg+ Q?GFE?G+XE\VJ@f?G_@JWQLS+ cE?+ @QLHL?Gc_+ @Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+ R@X@UVLg+ SPJHAE?T+ @ P@UGZ+ LTL@+ QRSPV?M+ cE?+ ?H+ fVQLT+ V?kZHcVgU@QK_Z@+ccH+]gd PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@USx"

`

*y+#E\m??G+@fVqL>?G+YMZ@+PJ@AEUE?@++:&n+XEL@U@S++{**+2JVXH++AE+QLHLVQLVcRTX+PJ@IJHXS+#D##"+

Page 10: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

=E\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+cE?+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL+P@RZEQZ+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+\ N5gb+s+RE+R@?cVYeE\?H+?H+NNg<+s+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H+*[[d"+(E?L@+ABA@C+YMZ+@AZVA?>?+\ECXT?H+AEZXV+?G\RBX+XE\VX>QGfl?GX+JWQLEX+cE?+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL+Q JEISZ@AH?BXV+cE?HXV+A PJWY>_S+QZEU@AH?T_@+@YU@YG"=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+?EJEISZ@AH?Bc_+?E@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVLg+CECVc_F+P@UGZ+?H+fVQLT+V?kZHcV+PeEUQLHASCEccH *<g`+sg+QE+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+\XGJ?VZ+\ *5gd+s+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+?H+*5gN+s+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H"+6 LTL@QRSPV?M+A\J@QLZM+Y>_EX+N" fLAJLZELG+?ECAGcE+cE?M+@PJHAg+RSZLSJ?Gc_+QZSFEY+H JERJEHcG"+

=E\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+ cE?+ @Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+ R@X@UVL+ P@RZEQZ+ Y>_EX+ N"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ \ <g<+ s+ RE+ R@?cVYeE\?H+?H+bg*+s+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H+*[[d"+D@UGZ+L>c_L@+R@X@UVL+?H+fVQLT+V?kZHcV+PeEUQLHASCE+ccH+dNg`+s", JKXcV+ QRSPV?M+cE?+@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_+R@X@UVL+P@RZEQZH+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+ABJH\?>+XE\VJ@f?G+XGJHJWQLS+cE?+P@LJHAV?+w\ dgN+s+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+?H+bgd s+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?Hx+V @QLHL?Gc_+@Yc_@U@AHLEZ?Bc_R@X@UVL+w\E+<gN+s+?H+`g5+sx"+

b

Page 11: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'''(.QRS3$T*-.'*23$6*-.2$S,!)U

'''(V(.WX;CDO.DODCY

'''(V(V(.Z@;X[;J.>AI@A:9F\]

,BA@C+PE?>F?Gc_+HIJEIKLW+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+CE+c_HJHRLEJV\@AK?+?HUKZE+?G\RBX+JWQLEXg+PeEQL@FE+R@?lcEX+fLAJLZELG+U@c_K\G+R SJMc_Z@AK?G+CECVc_+PeGJWQLRW"+,BA@C+X?@FQLAG+PE?>\+YMZ+@AZVA?>?+XGJ?BX+P@RZElQEX+ RZVE?LQRBc_+ QH\EY+ CHR@+ ABJH\+ P@RJHfSCGcG+ QLHYVZV\HcE+ QLeEU?>U@YT_@+ H UZ@S_@U@YT_@+ QEIXE?LSkV?H?f?G_@+LJ_S"+=E\VJ@f?G+PeGJWQLRM+PE?>F?Gc_+HIJEIKLW+V ?HUKZE+\WQLKAHCG+P@U+?@XV?KZ?GXV+PeGJWQLRM$9D+H CECVc_+ABA@C+LHR+PeVQPGAK+R \HCVqu@AK?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+:&n"

!"#$%#&'()*")+, -.

=?@FQLAG+PE?>\+AMCKUeE?T+PE?>F?GX+HIJEIKLEX =N+PHLeG+R \KRZHU?GX+X>eGLRWX+X?@FQLAG+LJH?QHRf?Gc_PE?>\+A fEQRT+ER@?@XVcE"+, PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+U@qZ@+R SJMc_ZE?G+PeGJWQLRW+PE?>F?G+\KQ@YM+wLHYSZRH!!!"*g+ QE\m??>+ @fVqL>?T+ H H?SHZV\@AH?T+ PeGJWQLRM+ PE?>F?G_@+ HIJEIKLS =N+ \H+ P@QZEU?G+ LeV+ X>QGcEx", XE\VJ@f?GX+AMCKUeE?G+QE+AqHR+PeGJWQLER+PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS+A fEJA?S+QE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+ABJH\?>?E\X>?VZ"

<

Ny+OUHCE+@ PE?>F?Gc_+HIJEIKLEc_+\H+fEJAE?+*[[d+CQ@S+PeEUY>F?T"

H?SHZV\@AH?T+\H+P@QZEU?G

*+X>QGc 5+X>QGcE b+X>QGcW *+J@R

YeE\E?+[d Ngb lag] 5g[ <g<

USYE?+[d l]gb 5g[ *gd bg`

RA>LE?+[d *g5 *5g` 5g` bgN

fEJAE?+[d Ng* **g5 5ga <g`

D@\?KXRH|+#E\m??>+@fVqL>?@+UZE+@Uc_MZER+@U+eHUM+AM_ZH\E?T+XEL@U@S+cE?LJ@AH?T_@+RZ@S\HAT_@+PJWX>JS+UTZRM+*5"

)*+,"---,.,"?;5@A9#1B"98'C44D"$E<F#D4G($":84DH45($"*I@8I0#J"KL""MNO

Page 12: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

/"0,1*12+'3,*40,4*('5"#$%#&61'()*")+,4 -.78

,BA@C+QERL@J@AT+QLJSRLSJM+PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS =N+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+CE+c_HJHRLEJV\@AK?+V ?HUKZE+?G\lRBX+PeGJWQLREX+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ HRLVA+ S QERL@JS+ P@U?VRW+ wX>eE?@+ @YCEXEX+ARZHUW+ H @Y>FVAHg+ IJHk+ !!!"N"x"=E\VJ@f?G+\X>?H+kV?H?f?Gc_+HRLVA+P@U?VRW+QE+A fEJA?S+A P@J@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+LTX>e+?E\X>?VZH+wlN+sA YeE\?Sg+ l*g<+ s+ A fEJA?Sx"+ &HUKZE+ CE+ AEZXV+ ?G\RK+ wA PJWY>_S+ J@RS+ *[[b+ U@QH_@AHZH+ ccH+ N` sx".YU@Y?B+ABA@C+U@RZKUK+V fVQLK+kV?H?f?G+P@\VcE+P@U?VRW+wLC" _@L@A@QL+H ARZHUM+Q?GFE?T+@ PeVCHLT+^A>JMH EXVL@AH?T+cE??T+PHPGJMxg+S ?GF+U@qZ@+R UHZqGXS+\_@JqE?G+w\ l<*`+XZU" 8f+A YeE\?S+?H+l<55 XZU" 8fR@?cEX+fEJA?Hx"+

=?@FQLAG+PE?>\+A QERL@JS+U@XKc?@QLG+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q P@U?VR@A@S+QkTJ@S+J@QLE+AMqqGX+LEXPEX+H CE_@+PeGlJWQLRM+CQ@S+QLHYVZ?>CqG"+/E+L@+UK?@+QLHYVZ?>CqG+LA@JY@S+^QP@J+L@_@L@+QERL@JS+A UEZqGX+fHQ@ATX+_@JV\@?LS"=E\VJ@f?G+PeGJWQLRM+ ARZHUW+H @Y>FVAH+U@XKc?@QLG+ QE+@U+R@?cE+ J" *[[b+SUJFSCG+ ?H+^J@A?V+ ccH+*a+s", QHX@L?TX+PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@qZ@+R JWQLS+kV?H?f?Gc_+HRLVA+U@XKc?@QLG+\ *Ng`+s+A YeE\?S+?H*5gN+s+ A fEJA?S"+ (E?L@+ ABA@C+ @UJKFG+ wV PeEQ+ P@RZEQ+ JEKZ?Bc_+ PeGCXW+ U@XKc?@QLGx+ PJEkEJE?cV+ LA@JYM^QP@J+PeEU+QP@LeEY@Sg+V RUMF+?H+XGJ?>+?VFqG+^J@A?V+?EF+A XV?SZ@QLV"+9ZE+P@QZEU?Gc_+^UHCW+U@QK_ZH+XGJH^QP@J+U@XKc?@QLG+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+*]g`+s+AE QJ@A?K?G+QE+*Ngb+s+AE+QLEC?TX+@YU@YG X"+J" #LHYVZVLSc_@AK?G+U@XKc?@QLG+Z\E+U@Z@FVL+V ABA@CEX+fVQLT+kV?H?f?G+P@\VcE+U@XKc?@QLGg+RLEJK+U@QH_@AHZH+A fEJA?S*[[d+J@f?G+UM?HXVRM+*`g*+s+@PJ@LV+*ag*+s+A YeE\?S"+

!"#$%#&'()*")+, 9

=E\VJ@f?G+UM?HXVRH+PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS 1+QE+\AMq@AHZH+A PJWY>_S+cEZT_@+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+wUSYE?+dg5 sgRA>LE?+dg<+s+H fEJAE?+[g*+sx"+&H+PE?>F?G+HIJEIKL 1+PWQ@YVZM+QLEC?T+kHRL@JM+CHR@+?H+PE?>F?G+HIJEIKL =NgLC"+ PeEUEAqGX+ \ABqE?G+ ^A>J@AT+ EXVQE+ A USY?S+ H RA>L?S"+ %WQL+ PE?>F?G_@+ HIJEIKLS 1+ @UJKFG+ wA\_ZEUEXR ABqV+JEKZ?Bc_+AB?@QWx+PJEkEJE?cV+RJKLR@U@YBc_+kV?H?f?Gc_+V?AEQLVc+P@U?VRW+PeEU+?EkV?H?f?GXV"+

d

5y+, Q@SZHUS+Q XEL@UVR@S+#MQLTXS+?KJ@U?Gc_+^fLS+w#&2x+YMZH+QERL@J@AK+QLJSRLSJH+PE?>\+SPJHAE?H+?H+P@U?VRM+H U@XKc?@QLV+wA USY?@AT+6PJKA>+@ V?kZHcV+YMZ@+P@SFVL@+J@\U>ZE?G+?H+P@U?VRM+H @YMAHLEZQLA@x"

H?SHZV\@AH?T+\H+P@QZEU?G

*+X>QGc 5+X>QGcE b+X>QGcW *+J@R

YeE\E?+[d NgN 5g] bgN dg*

USYE?+[d ]g< dg[ bgN dg5

RA>LE?+[d *g` *dg< <gb dg<

fEJAE?+[d ]gd *Ng5 <g` [g*

D@\?KXRH|+#E\m??>+@fVqL>?@+UZE+@Uc_MZER+@U+eHUM+AM_ZH\E?T+XEL@U@S+cE?LJ@AH?T_@+RZ@S\HAT_@+PJWX>JS+UTZRM+*5"

)*+,"---,L,"?;5@A9#1B"98'C44D"$E<F#D4G($":84DH45($"*I@8I0#J"P""MNO

Page 13: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

!"#$%#&'()*")+, -:

' PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS =*+U@qZ@+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+R \HQLHAE?G+XE\VJ@f?G_@+P@RZEQS"+(E?L@ABA@C+YMZ+@AZVA?>?+PeEUEAqGX+?G\R@S+\KRZHU?@S+A Z@tQRTX+J@cEg+RUM+AZVAEX+UEAHZAHf?Gc_+ErPERLHcGU@c_K\EZ@+R PeEQS?WX+@Y>FVAH+H R@JS?@ABc_+ARZHUW+?H+AVU>?@S+U@+ARZHUW+cV\@X>?@ABc_"+&H+\HQLHlAE?G+ XE\VJ@f?G_@+ P@RZEQS+ PE?>F?G_@+ HIJEIKLS =*+ AqHR+ J@A?>F+ PWQ@YVZ@+ SJMc_ZE?G+ CE_@+ PeGJWQLRSA X>QGcV+RA>L?Sg+CHR@+@UJH\+^A>J@AT+EXVQE+YH?R"+DeEQL@+AqHR+PeGJWQLRM+PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS =*+\WQLKlAHCG+V ?HUKZE+?G\RT+H CQ@S+A Q@SZHUS+Q ABA@CEX+V?AEQLVf?G+P@PLKARM+P@U?VRW"

, JKXcV+PE?>F?G_@+HIJEIKLS =*+QE+PJ@CEASCE+QLHI?HcE+_@L@A@QLGg+RLEJK+@UP@AGUK+ABA@CV+XHZ@@Yc_@Ul?G_@+ @YJHLS+ AMCKUeE?T_@+ A Y>F?Bc_+ cE?Kc_"+ ,BA@C+ _@L@A@QLG+ CE+ AqHR+ fKQLEf?>+ J@A?>F+ @AZVAt@AK?kV?H?f?GXV+V?@AHcEXV+?H+LS\EXQRTX+YH?R@A?GX+LJ_S"

'''(V(\(.^DXIF.LC8PF9;B9E.LCG;7P_H.> CMFD>9@=89DB

.PJ@LV+ ABA@CV+P@PQH?TXS+A XV?SZT+\PJKA>+@ V?kZHcV+U@c_K\G+ AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+RE+\ABqE?G+^A>J@ATEXVQE"+, L@XL@+fLAJLZELG+A\J@QLZ+cEZR@AB+@YCEX+P@QRML?SLBc_+^A>JW+@ 5<+XZU" 8f+ w@fVqL>?@+@ RSJ\@ATAZVAMg+ @UPVQM+ ^A>JWg+ RHPVLHZV\HcV+ ^J@RW+ H YH?RM+ P@+ @UEYJK?G+ ZVcE?cEx"+ /EU?HZ@+ QE+ PeEUEAqGX+ @ ?@A>P@QRML?SLT+RJKLR@U@YT+H QLeEU?>U@YT+^A>JM"+&H+PeGJWQLRS+^A>JW+QE+P@UGZEZM+PeEUEAqGX+R@JS?@AT+^A>JMwccH+b`+sx"+6ABqE?G+^A>J@AT+EXVQE+CE+PHLJ?T+PeEUEAqGX+A USY?S+H RA>L?S"

[

H?SHZV\@AH?T+\H+P@QZEU?G

*+X>QGc 5+X>QGcE b+X>QGcW *+J@R

YeE\E?+[d l]ga l*Ng[ l`g[ l*]g5

USYE?+[d l]g5 l*g` ldg* l**ga

RA>LE?+[d 5g* Ng5 lbg* l5gd

fEJAE?+[d ]g< 5ga l[g[ ]g[

D@\?KXRH|++#E\m??>+?E@fVqL>?@+\+UWA@US+XHZT+AB\?HX?@QLV+QE\m??Gc_+kHRL@JW"

)*+,"---,Q,"?;5@A9#1B":84DH45($"*I@8I0#J"K.""MNO

Page 14: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

&KJWQL+UM?HXVRM+^A>J@AT+EXVQE+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+CE+\eECXB+J@A?>F+\E+QE\m??>+@fVqL>?Bc_^A>JWg+H L@+CHR+\H+P@QZEU?G+X>QGcg+LeV+X>QGcE+V \H+qEQL+X>QGcW"+6ABqE?G+^A>J@AT+EXVQE+@UJKFG+U@fHQ?>\ABqE?@S+ P@LeEYS+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ \UJ@CW+ S P@U?VR@AT_@+ QERL@JS+ A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+ Q kV?H?c@AK?GX+ AMYJH?Bc_PJ@A@\?Gc_+P@LeEY"

6 _ZEUVQRH+QERL@J@AT+QLJSRLSJM+cEZR@ABc_+^A>JW+P@QRML@AHZM+YH?RM+^A>J@AT+\UJ@CE+V ?HUKZE+PeEUEAqGXP@U?VRHLEZQRTXS+QERL@JSg+CE_@F+P@UGZ+fV?VZ+ccH+[]+s"+%@A?>F+P@UGZ+U@XKc?@QLG+QE+AB\?HX?>CV+?E\X>l?VZ+w[gbsx"+6 _ZEUVQRH+fHQ@AT+QLJSRLSJM+?@A>+P@QRML?SLBc_+^A>JW+J@\_@USCGcG+fKQL+wd5+sx+YMZH+LA@eE?HRJKLR@U@YBXV+^A>JM"

D@UGZ+PJ@A@\?Gc_+^A>JW+?H+cEZR@ABc_+^A>JEc_+QE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+\ABqVZ+@ ccH+*+PJ@cE?L?G+Y@U+w\ `Ng<+sA YeE\?S+?H+`5gd+s+A fEJA?Sx"+D@UGZ+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+^A>JW+?H+cEZR@ABc_+^A>JEc_+AqHR+P@RZEQZ+\ 5Ng*+?H5]ga+s"

'''(V(`(.^ICPCDE.8>aMF

DJ@+ ABA@C+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ CE+ c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRT+U@fHQ?T+PeEJSqE?G+ LJE?US+P@\A@Zl?T_@+ P@RZEQS+ RJKLR@U@YBc_+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EYg+ RLEJB+ YMZ+ LMPVcRB+ PJ@+ ABA@C+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG"+ (E?L@+ ABA@CPJ@YG_HZ+ PeV+ ?E\X>?>?T+ ^J@A?V+ \KRZHU?Gc_+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ :&n+ H YMZ+ @AZVA?>?+ QVLSHcG+ ?H+ JSQRTXkV?H?f?GX+ LJ_S+H ?ECVQL@L@S+A PeEUA@ZEY?GX+@YU@YG+A :%"+6ABqE?G+RJKLR@U@YBc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+QEU@fHQ?>+PeE?EQZ@+J@A?>F+U@+ABA@CE+QH\EY+UZ@S_@U@YBc_"+DJWX>J?K+_ZHUV?H+RJKLR@U@YBc_+^J@R@ABc_QH\EY+A fEJA?S+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+QE+ LHR+XGJ?>+\ABqVZH+ wU@+5=+D%!n.%xg+S UZ@S_@U@YBc_+QH\EYUKZE+XGJ?>+P@RZEQZH"+(E?L@+ABA@C+V PeEQ+U@fHQ?T+\ABqE?G+RJKLR@U@YBc_+QH\EY+U@RZKUK+PeG\?VAK+@fERKlAK?G+ ?H+ P@RZEQ+ V?kZHcE"+ 'AEUE?B+ ABA@C+ QE+ PJ@XGLZ+ J@A?>F+ U@+ PJVXKJ?Gc_+ RZVE?LQRBc_+ QH\EY+ \ ?@A>P@QRML@AH?Bc_+^A>JWg+RLEJT+A fEJA?S+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+XGJ?>+P@RZEQZM"

*]

PeGJWQLER+^A>JW+\H+P@QZEU?G

*+X>QGc 5+X>QGcE b+X>QGcW *+J@R

YeE\E?+[d ]g] *g] Nga bga

USYE?+[d *gN *gN 5gN bg]

RA>LE?+[d *g* Ng5 5gb `g<

fEJAE?+[d ]g` Ng[ 5g[ bg]

D@\?KXRH|+.fVqL>?@+@+RSJ\@AT+AZVAMg+@UPVQMg+RHPVLHZV\HcV+^J@RWg+YH?RM+P@+@UEYJK?G+ZVcE?cE+H+QE\m??G+AZVAM"#E\m??>+@fVqL>?@+UZE+@Uc_MZER+@U+eHUM+AM_ZH\E?T+XEL@U@S+cE?LJ@AH?T_@+RZ@S\HAT_@+PJWX>JS+UTZRM+*5"

)*+,---,R,"?;5@A9#1B"98'C44D"$E<F#D4=>(">821$!=>("6!D@A"MNO

Page 15: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'''(V(`(V(.SI:9PCGCME.KICPCDE.8>aMF

,BA@C+^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+YMZ+ AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@+*d"+ RA>L?H+c_HJHRLEJV\@AK?+P@\A@Z?BX+P@RZEQEX?HAH\SCGcGX+?H+P@RZEQ+A *"+fLAJLZELG"+, P@Z@AV?>+RA>L?H+U@QK_ZM+LML@+QH\YM+?EC?VFqG+^J@A?>+@U+P@fKLRSJ@RS+ *[[d"+ DZM?SZB+ P@RZEQ+ RJKLR@U@YBc_+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ YMZ+ @U P@QZEU?G+ UERKUM+ RA>L?H+ AMQLeGUK?ABJH\?@S+ A@ZHLVZVL@S+ QP@CE?@S+ Q PeEc_@U?BX+ A\EQLSPEX+ cEZR@AT+ _ZHUV?M+ RJKLR@U@YBc_+ ^J@R@ABc_QH\EY"+, \KA>JS+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+RJKLR@U@YT+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+PJSUcE+RZEQZM+H AJKLVZM+QE+?H+^J@AEt+PeEURA>L?@ABX+A\EQLSPEX"+(E?L@+ABA@C+PJ@YG_HZ+PeV+?E\X>?>?T+^J@A?V+\KRZHU?Gc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+:&n"

9M?HXVcRB+ABA@C+RJKLR@U@YBc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+@AZVA?VZ+P@Z@_S+H QRZ@?+cEZT+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARM+^J@R@lABc_+QH\EY+D%!n.%+wIJHk+!!!"<"x"+OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+?H+RJHLqGX+R@?cV+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARM+QE+PeV+QLHYVZVL>+ZVXVL?GQH\YM+:&n+PJ@+N(+JEP@+@PEJHcE+?H+^J@A?V+*`+s+P@+cEZT+@YU@YG+P@\A@Z?H+\AMq@AHZMg+CHR+SRH\SCE+ABA@C^J@R@AT+QH\YM+*(+D%!n.%"+/ECG+PJWX>J?K+X>QGf?G+ABqE+P@QLSP?>+A\J@QLZH+\E *ag[`+s+A YeE\?S+*[[d+?H*`gNb+s+A fEJA?S"+.YU@Y?B+ABA@C+YMZ+\H\?HXE?K?+?H+QLeEU?GX+H UEZqGX+R@?cV+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARMg+RUEA RA>L?S+ U@qZ@+ R PeEJSqE?G+ LJE?US+ R P@RZEQS"+=GJ?>+ QE+ J@A?>F+ \ABqVZ+ QPJEHU+.004%yn!9+ CHR@+ ABJH\U@fHQ?T+?EQLHYVZVLM+?H+PE?>F?GX+LJ_S+A UWQZEURS+RJV\@ABc_+PJ@CEAW+?H+JSQRTX+kV?H?f?GX+LJ_S+H ?ECVQlL@LM+A PeEUA@ZEY?GX+@YU@YG+A LS\EXQRS"

OJ@R@AT+QH\YM+?H+RJHLqGX+R@?cV+QE+LHR+A fEJA?S+U@QLHZM+?HU+YeE\?@A@S+^J@AEt"+#LeEU?>+H UZ@S_@U@lY>CqG+ QH\YM+D%!n.%+AqHR+UKZE+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+P@RZEQZMg+c@F+?H\?HfSCE+P@RJHfSCGcG+ QLHYVZV\HcVkV?H?f?G_@+LJ_S+H PeELJAKAK?G+P@\VLVA?Gc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G"

D@+@UE\?>?G+U@fHQ?Bc_+?EPeG\?VABc_+kHRL@JW+QE+LHR+?H+R@?cV+fEJA?H+QVLSHcE+?H+kV?H?f?GX+LJ_S+SRZVUltSCE+H U@c_K\G+R PJSURTXS+P@RZEQS+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H+^J@AEt+\ P@Z@AV?M+RA>L?H"

**

Page 16: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

,BA@C+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+0%2ay @UJKFEZ+ABA@C+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+D%!n.%"+n>_EX+*" fLAJLZELG+YMZH+PHLJ?KLE?UE?cE+R CECVc_+P@RZEQS+wQ ABCVXR@S+?>R@ZVRH+R@JERcGxg+RLEJK+QE+@U P@fKLRS+USY?H+CEqL>+AGcE+\ABJH\l?VZH"+DeVYZVF?>+A P@Z@AV?>+RA>L?H+U@QK_ZM+QH\YM+?H+0%2+XV?VXHg+UHZqG+P@RZEQ+YMZ+PeEJSqE?+A JEHRcV+?HSUKZ@QLV+QP@CE?T+Q RJV\G+?H+kV?H?f?GX+LJ_S+A %SQRS+V ?H+PeEUA@ZEY?G+?ECVQL@LS+?H+LS\EXQRTX+kV?H?f?GXLJ_S"+6ABqE?K+A@ZHLVZVLH+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+D%!n.%+A fEJA?S+QE+@UJH\VZH+ V U@+ QH\EY+0%2"+D@+@UE\?>?GABRMAW+RE+R@?cV+fEJA?H+QE+QH\YM+0%2+AJKLVZM+R QEQLSP?TXS+LJE?US"+OJ@AEt+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H+0%2R@?cEX+fEJA?H+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+U@RZKUK+P@QVZ@AK?G+UEQV?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G+wS QH\YM+5=+CE+@fElRKAK?+P@RZEQ+@ ]ga+Y@US+A _@JV\@?LS+5+X>QGcWg+S QH\YM+*N =+P@RZEQ+@ Ng5 Y@US+A _@JV\@?LS+*+J@RSx"+

*N

ay+0%2+}+k@J~HJU+JHLE+HIJEEXE?LQ+}+U@_@UM+@ YSU@ScGc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\YKc_"

Page 17: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

(J_+RJKLR@U@YBc_+UZS_@PVQW+w#DDx+YMZ+J@A?>F+P@U+AZVAEX+ABA@CE+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+D%!n.%"+,B?@Q@AKReVARH+#DD+wA fKQLV+5=+HF+*N=x+QE+AMAGCEZH+A Q@SZHUS+QE+QH\YHXV+?H XE\VYH?R@A?GX+LJ_S+UEP@\VL"+/ECGAMP@AGUHcG+Qc_@P?@QL+CE+AqHR+@XE\E?K+A\_ZEUEX+R ?G\RT+ZVRAVUVL>+LJ_Sg+?HAGc+CECG+RJKLRB+R@?Ec+CE+\RJElQZ@AK?+@UZVq?BX+PeGQLSPEX+RmLSCGcGc_+YH?R+R UHt@AT+HJYVLJKFV"+DeEQL@+@YJHLM+?H+LJ_S+RJKLR@U@YBc_+UZSl_@PVQW+AMRH\SCG+A UZ@S_@U@YTX+P@_ZEUS+LJAHZE+?HJWQLHCGcG+LE?UE?cV"+, USY?Sg+RA>L?S+V fEJA?S+X>QGf?G@YCEXM+@YJHLW+\?Hf?>+PeERJ@fVZM+_@U?@LM+CEU?@LZVABc_+X>QGcW+PeEUc_@\G_@+fLAJLZELGg+P@_MY@AHZM+QE+?H^J@A?V+a<] HF `]]+XZU" 8f"+&HUKZE+ABJH\?>+PeEAHFSCG+PeGXT+@Yc_@UM+wd`+HF+[]+sx+?HU+JEP@+@Yc_@UM"+

, PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+QE+?H+PJVXKJ?GX+LJ_S+SQRSLEf?VZ@+cEZREX+*]+HSRcG+#DD+QE+QPZHL?@QLXV+*=HF+[="+,\_ZEUEX+R PeEAVQS+P@PLKARM+S AqEc_+HSRcG+QE+ABQZEU?T+_JSYT+AB?@QM+P@_MY@AHZM+P@U+ZVXVLl?GXV+AB?@QMg+H L@+A J@\P>LG+*`g]+s+HF+*`g<+s+A \KAVQZ@QLV+?H+U@Y>+QPZHL?@QLV+H HRLSKZ?G+QVLSHcV+?H+LJ_S"

OJ@R@AB+UVkEJE?cVKZ+wD%!n!9+368+l+1!n.%+94=x+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+PeV+QLHYVZVL>+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+^J@R@lABc_+ QH\EY+ @UJKFEZ+ ABA@C+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ ?H+ LS\EXQRTX+ LJ_S+XE\VYH?R@A?Gc_+ UEP@\VL"+ , Q@SZHUSQ ABA@CEX+ L>c_L@+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ PeELJAKAHZH+ S ^J@R@AT_@+ UVkEJE?cVKZS+ ccH+ HF+ U@+ P@Z@AV?M+ RA>L?H*[[d+XGJ?Kg+HZE+QLHYVZ?G+LE?UE?cE+R P@RZEQS"+D@U+AZVAEX+kZSRLSHcG+?H+LS\EXQRTX+LJ_S+YMZ+LE?L@+P@RZEQPeEc_@U?>+AMQLeGUK?+PJSURBX+R@ZGQHABX+A\EQLSPEXg+Y>_EX+?>_@F+^J@R@AB+UVkEJE?cVKZ+U@QK_Z+*`"+b"*[[d+QAT_@+fLAJLZEL?G_@+XHrVXH+w5=+*Ng5+sg+*%+**g[+sx"+# SRZVU?>?GX+QVLSHcE+U@qZ@+?H+R@?cV+fEJA?HR P@RZEQS+^J@R@AT_@+UVkEJE?cVKZSg+S QH\YM+5=+HF+?H+**g`+sg+S ^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H UEP@\VLH+Q UEZqGU@Y@S+QPZHL?@QLV+U@R@?cE+?H+?EC?VFqG+^J@AEt+A L@XL@+fLAJLZELG+w*%+**g*+sx"+(E?L@+P@RZEQ+QE+?EPJ@XGLZU@+ABA@CE+RSJ\S 8fg+RLEJB+R@?cEX+fEJA?H+HPJEcV@AHZ"

'''(V(`(\(.T=CBNCGCME.KICPCDE.8>aMF

DJ@+ABA@C+UZ@S_@U@YBc_+QH\EY+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AMCKUeE?Bc_+R@LHcEXV+?H+!%#`y YMZ+c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRBCECVc_+P@RZEQg+ RLEJB+ QE+ \ABJH\?VZ+ A USY?S+ H P@fKLREX+RA>L?H"+, L@XL@+@YU@YG+ YMZH+ P@ZVLVcRK+ QVLSHcEJEZHLVA?>+QLHYVZV\@AH?K+H \AEeECt@AH?T+ER@?@XVcRT+SRH\HLEZE+P@X>J?>+PeG\?VAT"+(ML@+UAH+kHRL@JM+CQ@SJ@\_@USCGcG+PJ@+@fERKAK?G+V?AEQL@JW+H LGX+V PJ@+ABA@C+QH\EY"+(E?UE?cE+R UHZqGXS+Q?VF@AK?G+QH\EY+YMZHU@fHQ?>+?HJSqE?H+?H+PeEZ@XS+RA>L?H+H fEJA?Hg+ RUM+ QE+P@U@Y?>+ CHR@+A PeGPHU>+RJKLR@U@YBc_+ QH\EYPJ@CEAVZ+ AZVA+ kV?H?f?G+ RJV\E+A %SQRS"+DeEQL@+ QV+ UZ@S_@U@YT+^J@R@AT+ QH\YM+?H+ J@\UGZ+@U+RJKLR@U@YBc_QH\EY+\Hc_@AHZM+\eELEZ?B+LJE?U+R P@RZEQSg+RLEJB+U@RZKUK+P@RJHfSCGcG+QLHYVZV\HcV+H UEQV?kZHf?G+@fERKAK?GQSYCERLW+?H+kV?H?f?GX+LJ_S"

*5

`y+#H\YM+!%#+}+QH\YM+?H+V?LEJEQL+JHLE+Q~HPQ+}+QH\YM+?H+^J@R@AB+UEJVAKL+\HZ@FE?B+?H+ABX>?>+PEA?T+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+\H+P@_MYZVA@S"

Page 18: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

,B?@Q@AK+ReVARH+QH\EY+!%#+QE+P@QLSP?>+P@QS?@AHZH+?H+?VFqG+AB?@Q@A@S+_ZHUV?S+H \KJ@AEt+QE+\KQZS_@SJMc_ZECqG_@+P@RZEQS+QH\EY+Q UEZqG+QPZHL?@QLG+\ABJH\?VZ+CECG+V?AEJ\?G+QRZ@?"+DJ@CEAVZH+QE+LHR+AE+A>LqG+XGeEUZ@S_@U@Y>CqG+ UEQV?kZHf?G+ @fERKAK?G"+ , PJWY>_S+ N" fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ QH\YM+ !%#+ QE+ QPZHL?@QLG+ *%+ RZEQZM@ ]ga PJ@cE?L?Gc_+Y@UWg+QE+QPZHL?@QLG+`%+@ *g`+PJ@cE?L?Gc_+Y@UWg+QE+QPZHL?@QLG+*]%+@ NgN+PJ@cE?L?Gc_Y@UW"+

*a

Page 19: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

*`

D@U@Y?B+ABA@C+YMZ+\H\?HXE?K?+ LHRT+A PeGPHU>+P@Z@_M+H QRZ@?S+AB?@Q@ABc_+ReVAER+QLKL?Gc_+H kVJEX?Gc_UZS_@PVQW"+&H+PJVXKJ?GX+LJ_S+QLKL?Gc_+UZS_@PVQW+YMZH+P@UZE+EXVQ?G_@+RHZE?UKeE+AE N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+EXVL@lAK?H+*+EXVQE+w@YCEX+`+XZU" 8fg+QPZHL?@QL+N%g+_JSYB+AB?@Q+*ag<` sx"+, PeGPHU>+kVJEX?Gc_+UZS_@PVQW+QE+LHRTCEU?HZ@+@ *+EXVQV+A @YCEXS+b+XZU" 8fg+?HAGc+YMZM+AMUK?M+LeV+EXVQE+_MP@LEf?Gc_+\KQLHA?Gc_+ZVQLW+A @YCEXS*g<+XZU" 8f"+=HZK+fEL?@QL+?@ABc_+EXVQG+U@RZKUK+?VFqG+JEZEAH?cV+L@_@L@+QEIXE?LS+RHPVLKZ@AT_@+LJ_S"

'''(V(`(`(.S=7@;98PE.KICPCDE.8>aMF

9@+ABA@CE+ RZVE?LQRBc_+^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+?H+?@A>+P@QRML@AH?T+^A>JM+ QE+ AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+PJ@XGLHZABA@C+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H+LJ_S+XE\VYH?R@A?Gc_+UEP@\VL"+(E?UE?cE+R P@RZEQS+YMZH+QVcE+RE+R@?cV+RA>L?HH A PJA?G+P@Z@AV?>+fEJA?H+PeEJSqE?Hg+HAqHR+CVF+A P@QZEU?G+UERKU>+fEJA?H+\HfHZM+YH?RM+QAT+JEkEJE?f?GQH\YM+ A Q@SZHUS+ Q UEQV?kZHf?GXV+ @fERKAK?GXV+ Q?VF@AHL"+ OJ@R@AT+ QH\YM+ ?H+ ?@A>+ P@QRML@AH?T+ ^A>JMA fEJA?S+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+LHR+XGJ?>+P@RZEQZM+w*bg*+s+A YeE\?Sg+*bg]+s+A fEJA?Sx"

DJWX>J?T+?@XV?KZ?G+RZVE?LQRT+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+?H+?@A>+P@QRML@AH?T+RJKLR@U@YT+^A>JMg+RLEJT+QE+A USY?Sw*bg5+sx+CE?+?EPHLJ?>+ZVqVZM+@U+^J@A?>+YeE\?H+w*bgN+sxg+A RA>L?S+P@U+AZVAEX+P@RZEQS+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY?H+XE\VYH?R@A?GX+LJ_S+UEP@\VL+P@RZEQZM+?H+^J@AEt+*`gd+s"+, fEJA?S+QE+AqHR+\ABqVZM+\P>L+?H+*b+s",BA@C+ ?@XV?KZ?Gc_+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ ?H+ ?@A>+ P@QRML@AH?T+ RJKLR@U@YT+ ^A>JM+ QE+ @UJH\VZ+ V U@+ ABA@CEJEKZ?Bc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EYbyg+RLEJT+A RA>L?S+AE+AMCKUeE?G+3D!+P@RZEQZM+\ 5gN+s+?H+Ngd+s+H \ *]g*+s?H [gb s+AE+AMCKUeE?G+DD!"+, fEJA?S+AqHR+?H@PHR+A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+Q P@RZEQEX+XE\VJ@f?G+V?kZHcE+JEKZ?T+^J@lR@AT+QH\YM+A\J@QLZM+?H+a+s+AE+AMCKUeE?G+3D!+H *]ga+s+AE+AMCKUeE?G+DD!"+6 _ZEUVQRH+fLAJLZEL?G_@+PJWlX>JS+w5g5+s+AE+AMCKUeE?G+3D!g+*]g]+s+AE+AMCKUeE?G+DD!x+QE+JEKZ?T+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+U@QLHZM+?HU+^J@AEt*" fLAJLZELG+wNgb+sg+JEQP"+[g`+sx"

DJWX>J?T+?@XV?KZ?G+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+?H+RJKLR@U@YT+LEJXG?@AH?T+ARZHUM+QE+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q YeE\?EX+\ABlqVZM+P@S\E+?EPHLJ?>+w**g[+s+A YeE\?Sg+*Ng]+s+A fEJA?Sx"+%EKZ?T+^J@R@AT+QH\YM+?H+ARZHUM+QE+AqHR+AZVlAEX+P@RZEQS+XE\VJ@f?G+V?kZHcE+\ABqVZM+wl+*g`+s+A YeE\?Sg+]+s+A fEJA?Sx"

'''(V(b([email protected]

,BA@C+?@XV?KZ?G_@+RSJ\S+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+PWQ@YG+QLHYVZV\Hf?>+?H+ABA@C+V?kZHcE+A :%"+D@LAJ\E?G+PeG\l?VAT_@+LJE?US+S \KRZHU?Gc_+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRBc_+AEZVfV?+wABA@C+V?kZHcEg+X>?@ABc_+HIJEIKLWg+@Yc_@U?GYVZH?cEg+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMx+ CE+ kHRL@JEXg+RLEJB+@AZVA?VZ+ QLHYVZV\HcV+PJWX>J?T_@+X>QGf?G_@+?@XV?KZ?G_@RSJ\S+?H+_ZHUV?>+*dg`]+368+\H+94=+AE+QZEU@AH?TX+@YU@YG"+&H+QLJH?>+UJS_T+PeVLHFZVA@QL+^J@R@AT_@UVkEJE?cVKZS+PJ@+\H_JH?Vf?G+RHPVLKZ+YMZH+@YfHQ+?HJSqE?H+?ECVQL@L@S+AE+ABA@CV+?H+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+ kV?H?fl?Gc_+LJ\Gc_g+PeEUEAqGX+A UWQZEURS+ABA@CE+A %SQRS"

by+%EKZ?K+^J@R@AK+QH\YH+}+?@XV?KZ?G+QH\YH+l+QRSLEf?B+V?UEr+3D!+H DD!+A PeGQZSq?TX+X>QGcV"

Page 20: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

6_@U?@c@AK?G+ PJWX>J?T_@+ X>QGf?G_@+ ?@XV?KZ?G_@+ RSJ\S+ R@JS?M+ AWfV+ ?>XEcRT+ XHJcEg+ RLEJT+ YMZ@c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRT+ PJ@+ PJA?G+ LeV+X>QGcE L"+ J"g+ QE+ AE+ UJS_TX+ fLAJLZELG+ \HQLHAVZ@"+ D@+ QLHI?HcV+ ?@XV?KZ?G_@RSJ\S+A USY?S+wA PJWX>JS+?H+^J@A?V+*dgb]+368+\H+94=x+?KQZEU@AHZ@+CE_@+\_@U?@cE?G+A RA>L?S+w?HPJWX>J?@S+^J@AEt+*dg5]+368+\H+94=xg+RLEJT+YMZ@+AMQLeGUK?@+\?E_@U?@cE?GX+A fEJA?S+w@P>L+?H+PJWlX>J?Bc_+*dgb]+368+\H+94=x"+D@PQH?B+ABA@C+QE+ZVqG+@U+ABA@CE+A PJA?GX+fLAJLZELG L"+J"g+A CE_@F+PJWY>_SU@qZ@+PJWY>F?>+R P@QGZE?G+@ LTX>e+*+R@JS?S+\H+94="+(@L@+P@QGZE?G+YMZ@+AMA@ZK?@+@UE\?>?GX+PeGfV?gRLEJT+ \PWQ@YVZM+ \?E_@U?@cE?G+ RSJ\S+ A P@QZEU?Gc_+X>QGcGc_+ J" *[[<"+ %@\_@USCGcG+ PeGfV?@S+ @QZHYE?GRSJ\S+R@?cEX+XV?SZT_@+J@RS+YMZH+R@XYV?HcE+AZKU?G+RJV\E+A :%+H \ABqE?G+?ECVQL@LM+?H+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_kV?H?f?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+A UWQZEURS+ABA@CE+A JEIV@?S+CV_@ABc_@U?G+2QVE+H %SQRS"+

,BA@C+JEKZ?T_@+RSJ\S+R@JS?M+AWfV+?>XEcRT+XHJcE+wR ABP@fLS+JEKZ?T_@+RSJ\S+CQ@S+R UEkZ@AK?G+?@XVl?KZ?G_@+ RSJ\S+ AMSFVLM+ CHR+ V?UErM+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?g+ LHR+ V?UErM+ cE?+ PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ ABJ@YcW+ @Y@S\EXGx+AE+QZEU@AH?TX+@YU@YG+A P@UQLHL>+R@PGJSCE+ABA@C+?@XV?KZ?G_@+RSJ\Sg+RLEJB+CE+A\_ZEUEX+R XHZBXP@_MYWX+A @Y@S+cE?@ABc_+@RJS\Gc_+A UH?Bc_+\EXGc_+A USY?S+HF+fEJA?S L" J" J@\_@USCGcG"+! PJ@+JEKZ?BRSJ\+CE+PJ@+UJS_T+fLAJLZELG+fVLEZ?T+\HQLHAE?G+\_@U?@c@AK?G+RSJ\Sg+RLEJT+YMZ@+PeG\?Hf?T+PJ@+PJA?G+fLAJLlZELG L"+J" OJ@AEt+JEKZ?T_@+RSJ\S+\ P@QZEU?Gc_+X>QGcW+U@QH_SCE+_ZHUV?M+\ P@fKLRS+XV?SZT_@+J@RS"

'''(V(c(.S>L79:=CDE.9CPF

, U@Y>+\PJHc@AK?G+!?kZHf?G+\PJKAM+?EYMZM+R@XPZEL?G+^UHCE+@ PZHLEY?G+YVZH?cV+\H+N"+fLAJLZELG L" J" R UVQP@l\VcV"+DJ@L@+QE+PJ@+_@U?@cE?G+ABA@CE+AMc_K\G+\ ^UHCW+\H Z"+fLAJLZELG"+0V?H?f?G+^fEL PZHLEY?G+YVZH?cE+QR@?fVZ\H+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+HRLVAEX+AE+ABqV+Nag*+XZU" 8f+w]g< XZU"+'#9x"+,E QJ@A?K?G+Q SPZM?SZBXV+ZELM+CE+A CE_@JKXcV+PHLJ?B+@UZVA+@QLHL?Gc_+UZ@S_@U@YBc_+V?AEQLVc+wAMqqG+QPZKcE?G+A XV?SZ@QLV+fEJPH?Bc_+^A>JW+?EF+fEJlPK?G+?@ABc_+^A>JWx+H ?H@PHR+SJMc_ZE?G+PeGZVAS+RHPVLKZS+A JKXcV+@QLHL?Gc_+RJKLR@U@YBc_+V?AEQLVc"+, QERL@JS@Yc_@U?Gc_+ YH?R+ U@qZ@+ R P@RZEQS+ RJKLR@U@YBc_+ YH?R@A?Gc_+ HRLVA+ AWfV+ ?EJE\VUE?LWX+ A J@\QH_S+ b]g5XZU" 8fg+RLEJK+YMZH+P@SFVLH+R ^_JHU>+QPZHL?Bc_+RJKLR@U@YBc_+\KAH\RWg+UZS_@AT+QZSFYM+\ UeGAE+PeVCHLBc_kV?H?f?Gc_+^A>JW+H AMJ@A?K?G+\KAH\RW+\ P@UJ@\AH_@ABc_+QP@L@ABc_+H LEJXG?@ABc_+@PEJHcG"+:VQLB+PeGZVARHPVLKZS+A JKXcV \H_JH?Vf?Gc_+PeGXBc_+V?AEQLVc+U@QK_Z+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+<gd XZU" 8f+w]gN+XZU"+'#9xg+c@FCE+QJ@A?HLEZ?T+QE+QLEC?BX+@YU@YGX+XV?SZT_@+J@RS"+(TL@+ABqE+YMZ@+@AqEX+U@QHFE?@+UGRM+PJ@UECV+QLKL?G_@P@UGZS+A !?AEQLVf?G+H P@qL@A?G+YH?cEg+CE_@F+_@U?@LH+PeEUQLHA@AHZH+LTX>e+<`+s+cEZR@AT_@+PeGZVAS"+

*b

*"+fLAJLZELG

*[[5 *[[a *[[` *[[b *[[< *[[d

0V?H?f?G+^fEL *5g` *[gN a5g] NgN NNg* Nag*l+PeGXT+V?AEQLVcE dga l]ga 5g] dg* <g[ <gdl+P@JLk@ZV@AT+V?AEQLVcE l]g* <gN ]gd l5g` l`gb l]g`l+@QLHL?G+UZ@S_@U@YT+V?AEQLVcE *g` <g5 *ag] *NgN **g* l*Ng*l+@QLHL?G+RJKLR@U@YT+V?AEQLVcE 5g< `g* N`gN l*agb dg< Ndg[6X>?H+UEAV\@ABc_+JE\EJA+:&nwP@UZE+PZHLEY"YVZH?cEg+?KJWQL+lx l*NgN lN]gd l5[g< *5gN *g* l5]g]

)*+,"---,S,"?$(B+"9*23*"T<4*4E45($"6E#J"*"'%D4B"38!<'$!=>("@8'8@!"M!"%23,"UEO

Page 21: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

D@JLk@ZV@AT+V?AEQLVcE AMRK\HZM+AEZXV+XGJ?B+@UZVA+\UJ@CW+U@+\H_JH?VfGg+H L@+AE+ABqV+]g`+XZU" 8f+w*a+XVZ"'#9x"+6H_JH?Vf?G+V?AEQLVcE+U@+LS\EXQRBc_+cE??Bc_+PHPGJW+U@QK_ZM+5ga+XZU" 8f"+!?AEQLVcE+JE\VUE?LW+U@\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+cE??Bc_+PHPGJW+AqHR+YMZM+AMqqG+H fV?VZM+5g[+XZU" 8f"+3EZR@AT+U@QSU+JEHZV\@AH?T+\H_JHl?Vf?G+V?AEQLVcE+U@+LS\EXQRBc_+cE??Bc_+PHPGJW+?H U@XKcGX+RHPVLKZ@ATX+LJ_S+RE+R@?cV+YeE\?H+U@QK_ZM*5*gd XZU" 8f+w5g[+XZU"+'#9x"+#LHA+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+V?AEQLVc+U@+LS\EXQRBc_+cE??Bc_+PHPGJW+UE?@XV?@AHl?Bc_+A cV\Gc_+X>?Kc_+fV?VZ+RE+QLEC?TXS+UHLS+*g]+XZU"+'#9+w5`gN XZU" 8fx"

, @QLHL?Gc_+UZ@S_@U@YBc_+V?AEQLVcGc_ QPZKLRM+UeGA>CqGc_+PeVCHLBc_+YH?R@A?Gc_+ARZHUW+H ^A>JW+PeEABqVZM?@A>+ PeVCHLT+ ^Z@FRM+ V fEJPK?G+ ?@ABc_+ ^A>JWg+ fGXF+ U@qZ@+ R @UZVAS+ UZ@S_@U@YT_@+ RHPVLKZS+ wAE ABqV*Ng* XZU" 8fg+LC"+]g5+XZU"+'#9x"

.UZVA+ UZ@S_@U@YT_@+ RHPVLKZS+ QE+ PeG\?VA>+ PJ@CEAVZ+ AE+ ABA@CV+ \H_JH?Vf?G+ \HUZSFE?@QLV+ QLKLS"+ 8 5*" 5"L"+ J" YMZ+ AMRK\K?+ \H_JH?Vf?G+ UZS_+ AE+ ABqV+ b[]gb+XZU" 8f+ LC"+ N]g`+XZU"+'#9g+ c@F+ PeEUQLHASCE+ P@RZEQ@ `dgN+XZU" 8f+PJ@LV+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<"+D@X>J+\H_JH?Vf?G_@+UZS_S+R J@f?GXS+$9D+fV?VZ+a]g[+s"+

DeGJWQLER+UEAV\@ABc_+JE\EJA+:&n+\H+*"+fLAJLZELG L"+ J" U@QK_Z 5] XZU" 8f+ wP@+AMZ@SfE?G+RSJ\@ABc_+J@\lUGZWxg+H L@+PeEUEAqGX+AZVAEX+V?LEJAE?cG+:&n+?H+XE\VYH?R@A?GX+UEAV\@ATX+LJ_S"+9EAV\@AT+JE\EJAM+RER@?cV+ YeE\?H+ U@QK_ZM+ ABqE+ 5`<g<+ XZU" 8f+ w*]gb+ XZU"+ '#9x+ H P@QLHf@AHZM+ RE+ RJMLG+ 5g[ X>QGf?G_@U@A@\S+\Y@FG+H QZSFEY"

,E+N"+fLAJLZELG+A\J@QLZM+UEAV\@AT+JE\EJAM+:&n+@ ccH+*N+XZU"+R@JS?+wP@+AMZ@SfE?G+RSJ\@ABc_+P@_MYWxPeEUEAqGX+@PEJHcEXV+?H+XE\VYH?R@A?GX+UEAV\@ATX+LJ_S"+9EAV\@AT+JE\EJAM+:&n+R 5]"+b"+*[[d+fV?VZMA ERAVAHZE?LS+'#9+ccH+*]gd+XZU"

'''(\(.ZCL9:DP>.> ;>MJGP>.

'''(\(V(./a9>N.LCL9:DPF.> ;>MJGPF

, PJWY>_S+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d<y P@RJHf@AHZ@+Q?VF@AK?G+?EJ@A?@AK_M+XE\V+U@XKcG+P@PLKAR@S+H ?HYGUR@SgRLEJT+QE+AE+ABA@CV+ER@?@XVRM+PJ@CEA@AHZ@+ CVF+A PJWY>_S+J@RS+*[[<"+2YQ@ZSL?G+Q?GFE?G+ J@\QH_S+A?>CqG?EJ@A?@AK_Mg+X>eE?T+\KP@J?@S+_@U?@L@S+L\A"+?ELL@+ABA@\S+wLC"+QHZUH+ABA@\S+H U@A@\S+\Y@FG+H QZSFEYxU@QK_Z@+**g[+XZU" 8f"+D@UGZ+ L@_@L@+ QHZUH+?H+_JSYTX+U@XKcGX+PJ@USRLS+ QE+ Q?GFVZ+@ ag*+PJ@cE?L?G_@Y@US+?H+<g`+s+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q *"+fLAJLZELGX+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS"

*<

<y+D@QZEU?G+\?KXK+UHLH+QLHLVQLVRM+$9D+H P@PLKARM+R 5*"<"*[[d+CQ@S+\H+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d"

Page 22: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

8 P@RZEQS+A?>CqG+?EJ@A?@AK_M+PeVQP>ZM+PeEUEAqGX+AZVAM+?H+QLJH?>+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMg+\ECXT?H+X>?@AKH kVQRKZ?G+JEQLJVRcEg+RLEJK+QE+@UJH\VZH+AE+ABA@CV+AqEc_+\KRZHU?Gc_+QZ@FER+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+H ?KAH\?>+V AEABA@CV+ U@A@\W+ wPeEUEAqGX+ QP@LeEY?Gc_x"+ D@RZEQ+ cEZR@AT+ V R@?Ef?T+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARM+ ?EYMZ+ AMJ@A?K?@UP@AGUHCGcGX+JWQLEX+A?>CqG+P@PLKARMg+c@F+AEUZ@+R P@RZEQS+LA@JYM+_JSYT_@+U@XKcG_@+PJ@USRLS"+=E\VlJ@f?G+JWQL+HIJEIKL?G+P@PLKARM+U@QK_Z+bgd+s"

'''(\(\(.TCH:?J.LCL9:DP>.

DJ@+ *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ YMZ+ c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRB+ P@RJHfSCGcG+ P@RZEQ+ AqEc_+ QZ@FER+ cEZR@AT+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARMwAfEL?>+ \KQ@Yxg+ RLEJK+XE\VJ@f?>+ P@RZEQZH+ @ ag`+s"+=E\VJ@f?G+ P@RZEQ+ R@?Ef?T+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARM+ wP@AMZ@SfE?G+AZVAS+\X>?+\KQ@Yx+YMZ+XGJ?>CqG+H U@QK_Z+_@U?@LM+l+Ng*+s"+

D@RZEQ+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+YMZ+ABQZEU?VcG+eHUM+kHRL@JW"+6H+?ECAB\?HX?>CqG+Z\E+P@AHF@AHL|�+JEQLJVRLVA?G+X>?@A@S+P@ZVLVRS+wAZVA+QLKAHCGcG+^J@A?>+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EYg+\ECXT?H+?H ABA@C+?@A>+P@QRMlL@AH?Bc_+^A>JWx�+

�+kVQRKZ?G+JEQLJVRcVg+RLEJK+QE+PJ@CEAVZH+A @XE\E?G+AZKU?G+P@PLKARM+H V?AEQLVc��+P@RJHfSCGcG+@YE\eEL?>CqG+PeGQLSP+@Yc_@U?Gc_+YH?R+R ^A>J@AK?G+P@U?VR@AT_@+QERL@JS+Q @_ZEUEX?H U@QHFE?@S+^J@AEt+PJ@YZEXHLVcRBc_+^A>JW+H \ABqE?B+\KCEX+@ V?AEQLVcE+U@+QLKL?Gc_+cE??Bc_PHPGJWg+\HCVquSCGcG+AMqqG+AB?@QM+H ?VFqG+JV\VR@+?EF+JEKZ?T+V?AEQL@AK?G�+

*d

'8262(41+ #8'(4:&.#(+

*[[` *[[b *[[< !y*[[< !!y*[[< !!!y*[[< !,y*[[< !y*[[d

$%'n-++9.=73)+D%.9'8( bga 5g[ *g] *gN ]g` l]g* NgN l]g[

2�%4�7(&)+D.D(7,82+

wU@XKcG+P@PLKARH+H+ABA@\x+ **g[ <ga 5g5 5gd ag* ]g[ aga bgd

9.=73)+D.D(7,82+

wAfEL?>+\X>?M+QLHAS+\KQ@Yx [gd dg` l]ga `gN ]g] laga l*gN lag`

A+L@X|

#P@LeEYH+U@XKc?@QLG+ bg[ <g] *gb ag] `g< lNgN l]g5 l*gb

#P@LeEYH+AZKUM l*gb ag5 l*gd *g* l5g[ l5gN l*g* lNg<

(A@JYH+kVr?G_@+RHPVLKZS+ N*g] dg< lag[ l]gb ldg` l[g` l]g[ lNg`

,-,.6++6n.�)+2+#1'�4n *bg* `ga *]gN *g5 **g< **g5 *`g` N<gd

9.,.6+6n.�)+2+#1'�4n NNg] *Ng[ bg< <g` [ga Nga <g< *<g5

)*+,---,V,"K8'<@$E45"%5@*"@A9#J"@8024G"4*+531B"*":$:#0!1B"M!"NO"

Page 23: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

�+@XE\E?G+ JWQLS+XE\U+ A V?QLVLScGc_+ eG\E?Bc_+ AZKU@Sg+ \P@XHZE?G+ JWQLS+XE\U+ A P@U?VRHLEZQRT+ QkTeEA UWQZEURS+\_@JqSCGcGc_+QE+kV?H?f?Gc_+ABQZEURW+P@U?VRW+H S fKQLV+P@U?VR@AT+QkTJM+V A UWQZEURS+P@lQLSPSCGcG+JEQLJSRLSJHZV\HcE�+

�+cEZR@AB+P@RZEQ+QP@LeEYM+AZKUM�+�+\X>?M+ AZHQL?VcRBc_+ A\LH_Wg+ ?EPeG\?VA@S+ kV?H?f?G+ QVLSHcV+ H J@QL@ScG+ LZHRM+?H+ \ABqE?G+ R@?RSJE?cElQc_@P?@QLV+ A P@U?VR@ATX+ QERL@JS+ V?VcVSCGcG+ JWQL+ ?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV+ H Q?GFE?G+ UM?HXVRM+ JWQLS+XE\UA L@XL@+QERL@JS�

�+QZHYT+ErPERLHcE+YSU@ScG_@+ER@?@XVcRT_@+JWQLS"

DeV+ J@\UGZ?T+XGeE+P@RZEQS+ CEU?@LZVABc_+QZ@FER+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+YMZ+A UWQZEURS+ J@\UGZ?T_@+P@UGZS+?HR@?Ef?T+U@XKcG+P@PLKAcE+CECVc_+AZVA+?H+CECG+HYQ@ZSL?G+XE\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+\_JSYH+QLEC?B+H P@_MY@AHZ+QEA J@\XE\G+Ng*+l+Nga+XZU" 8f"

'''(\(\(V(.#LC9d@M>.GCH:?;C89J.

(JE?U+R P@RZEQS+QP@LeEYM+U@XKc?@QLGg+PJ@CEASCGcG+QE+@U+UJS_T+P@Z@AV?M+J@RS+*[[<g+P@RJHf@AHZ+V A PJAl?GX+ fLAJLZELG+ J@RS+ *[[d"+ 6HLGXc@+ CEqL>+ A *"+ P@Z@ZELG+ *[[<+ JEKZ?K+ QP@LeEYH+ U@XKc?@QLG+ XE\VJ@f?>A\J@QLZH+ @ ag[+ sg+ AE+ UJS_TX+ P@Z@ZELG+ CVF+ HYQ@ZSL?>+ RZEQHZH+ wXE\VJ@f?>+ AE+ UJS_T+ P@Z@AV?>+ J@RS@ agN XZU" 8fx"+, PJA?GX+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+XE\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+P@RJHf@AHZ+H U@QK_Z+*gb+s"+

D@RZEQ+ QP@LeEYM+ U@XKc?@QLG+ YMZ+ UWQZEUREX+ XE\VJ@f?G_@+ P@RZEQS+ JEKZ?Bc_+ UVQP@?VYVZ?Gc_+ PeGCXWU@XKc?@QLGg+RLEJB+AMPZM?SZ+\E+Q@SY>_S+Q?GFE?G+XGJM+JWQLS+?@XV?KZ?Gc_+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLG+H \JMc_ZE?GJWQLS+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?+ A J@cE+ *[[<+ V A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d"+ 6JMc_ZE?G+ cE?@AT_@+ ABA@CE+ QE+ U@LRZ@\ECXT?H+AK_@A>+AB\?HX?Bc_+ABUHC@ABc_+P@Z@FER+U@XKc?@QLG+w^PJHAM+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+LEPZHg+?KCEXl?T_@g+EZERLeV?M+HC"x"+8 P@RZEQS+QP@LeEYM+UKZE+PeVQP>ZH+V XGJ?>+J@QL@ScG+XGJH+^QP@J+A J@cE+*[[<g+\eECX>X@LVA@AH?K+J@QL@ScG+?ECVQL@L@S+\ YSU@ScG_@+ABA@CE+?H+LJ_S+PJKcE+PeV+\AMqSCGcG+QE+XGeE+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLVwLA@JYH+PE?>F?Gc_+JE\EJAx"+D@RZEQ+XGJM+^QP@J+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AqHR+QVI?HZV\@AHZg+FE+PeV+P@RJHfSCGcGXQ?VF@AK?G+XGJM+ JWQLS+?@XV?KZ?Gc_+PeGCXW+H JWQLS+ V?kZHcE+ QE+PJ@QL@J+ PJ@+ JWQL+ LA@JYM+PE?>F?Gc_+ JE\EJA\XE?qVZ+ wP@UZE+ PJ@P@fLS+ :#O+ QE+XGJH+ ^QP@J+ U@XKc?@QLG+ Q?GFVZH+ PJ@LV+ J@RS+ *[[<+ @ Ng` PJ@cE?L?G_@Y@USg+PJ@LV+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[<+P@RZEQ+U@QK_Z+Ng*+Y@USx"+

2?HZB\M+ QP@LeEY?G_@+c_@AK?G+U@XKc?@QLG+ SRH\SCGg+ FE+ Q@SAVQZ@QL+XE\V+ ABA@CEX+UVQP@?VYVZ?Gc_+PeGCXWU@XKc?@QLG+H QP@LeEY@S+CE+A fEQRT+ER@?@XVcE+P@X>J?>+AEZXV+L>Q?K"+D@QLSP?T+Q?VF@AK?G+XE\VJ@f?G_@LEXPH+ JWQLS+ QP@LeEYM+U@XKc?@QLG+H P@QZT\E+ CECG+HYQ@ZSL?G+P@RZEQ+A UWQZEURS+RZEQHCGcGc_+ JEKZ?Bc_+PeGlCXWg+\ECXT?H+PeGCXW+\ XE\Ug+?K\@J?>+U@RSXE?LSCE+

*[

Page 24: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

D@RZEQ+R@SP>Qc_@P?T+P@PLKARM+U@XKc?@QLG+?H\?HfSCG+ V \X>?M+AE+QLJSRLSeE+PJ@UECW+A XHZ@@Yc_@U?GQGLVg+PJ@CEASCGcG+QE+P@RZEQEX+PJ@UECE+HSL@X@YVZW+H PeEUX>LW+UZ@S_@U@YT+QP@LeEYM"+%@A?>F+ABJH\?>CqGP@RZEQ+ LJFEY+ LTX>e+ AqEc_+ UJS_W+ QZSFEY+ P@QRML@AH?Bc_+ U@XKc?@QLEX+ w\ECXT?H+ L\A"+ QZSFEY+ @Q@Y?GP@AH_Mx+QA>UfG+@ Q?VFSCGcGc_+QE+?KRSP?Gc_+X@F?@QLEc_+U@XKc?@QLG"

D@QLSP?B+P@RZEQ+QP@LeEYVLEZQRT+P@PLKARM+PeVQP>Z|�+R @QZHYE?G+P@PLKAR@ABc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRW+A ER@?@XVcE�+�+R ABJH\?TXS+Q?GFE?G+\KP@J?T_@+QHZUH+ABA@\S+H U@A@\S+\Y@FG+H QZSFEY"+D@\VLVA?G+AZVA+SPZHLt@AHl?Bc_+ X>?@ABc_+ H kVQRKZ?Gc_+ JEQLJVRLVA?Gc_+ @PHLeE?G+ ?H+ Q?GFE?G+ XE\EJM+ XE\V+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKAR@SH ?HYGUR@S+U@XKc?@QLG+YMZ+AqHR+U@+SJfVLT+XGJM+@QZHY@AK?+J@QL@ScGX+P@UGZEX+U@A@\S+QP@LeEY?G_@\Y@FG+?H+QP@LeEY>+U@XKc?@QLG+w�JHk+!!!"*d"x"

'''(\(\(\(.';D@897?@

D@+ABJH\?TX+XE\VJ@f?GX+P@RZEQS+A J@cE+*[[<+ wXE\VJ@f?>+@ ag[+sxg+RLEJB+RSZXV?@AHZ+AE 5" fLAJLZELG*[[<g+U@QK_Z+XE\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+_JSYT+ LA@JYM+ kVr?G_@+RHPVLKZS+A *" fLAJLZELG+*[[d+Ng`+s"+=GJH+ V?AEQLVcPeEQL@+\WQLHZH+AMQ@R@+?HU+^J@A?G+PJWXMQZ@A>+AMQP>ZBc_+\EXG+.439+wNdgb+s+AE+QLKZBc_+cE?Kc_x"+

$ZSYqGXS+P@RZEQS+ V?AEQLVf?G+P@PLKARM+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+\HYJK?VZ+PeEUEAqGX+QERL@J+AZKUM+ wXE\VJ@f?G?KJWQL+@ aga+sxg+RLEJB+ QE+A L@XL@+@YU@YG+ QLHZ+?ECJMc_ZECV+ J@QL@ScGX+QEIXE?LEX+cEZR@AT+P@PLKARM+P@V?AEQLVcGc_"+#A@S+J@ZV+\UE+\ECXT?H+QE_JKZH+ABCVXEf?>+?G\RK+QJ@A?KAHcG+\KRZHU?H+PeEUc_@\Gc_+UA@S+ZELH HRLVAVLM+Q@SAVQECGcG+Q ZVRAVUHcG+?KQZEURW+P@A@U?G+\ J@RS+*[[<"+,\_ZEUEX+RE+QRSLEf?@QLVg+FE+RHPVLKZ@AT

N]

Page 25: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

ABUHCE+AEeEC?T_@+QERL@JS+wV ?@XV?KZ?>x+XE\VJ@f?>+P@RZEQZMg+ Z\E+SQS\@AHLg+FE+QE+U@+_@U?@LM+AZKU?Gc_V?AEQLVc+X@_ZM+fKQLEf?>+PJ@XGL?@SL+@P@FU>?T+kHRLSJHcE+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+PJHcG+H U@UKAER+CEqL>+\ PeEUc_@l\G_@+@YU@YG"

#ERL@J+ ?EkV?H?f?Gc_+ P@U?VRW+ PeVQP>Z+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ RE+ \XGJ?>?G+ P@RZEQS+ P@PLKARM+ P@+ V?AEQLVcGc_XE\VJ@f?GX+ JWQLEX+@ *g<+s"+DeV+ QLKAHCGcG+^J@A?V+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+\ V?AEQLVf?Gc_+^A>JW+?H ^J@A?V+ccH*b s+H JEZHLVA?>+?G\RT+JE?LHYVZVL>+P@U?VRWg+\ABqE?T+@YE\eEL?@QLV+@Yc_@U?Gc_+YH?R+H XHZT+@c_@L>+P@QRMlL@AHL+UZ@S_@U@YT+V?AEQLVf?G+^A>JM+H AMqqG+AB?@Q?@QLV+kV?H?f?G_@+?EF+JEKZ?T_@+V?AEQL@AK?G+YMZM+X@F?@QLVkV?H?c@AK?G+V?AEQLVc+PJ@QLeEU?VcLAGX+LS\EXQRT_@+kV?H?f?G_@+LJ_S+@XE\E?T+wPeGJWQLER+U@XKcGc_+V?AEQLVfl?Gc_+^A>JW+ QE A *" fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+UKZE+ Q?GFVZx"+&H+UJS_T+ QLJH?>+U@qZ@+ HZE+ R JWQLS+ fEJPK?G+P@U?VR@ABc_^A>JW+\E+\H_JH?VfG"+8SJ\@AB+ABA@C+J@A?>F+\ZEPqVZ+P@UXG?RM+PJ@+U@A@\M+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+R@X@UVLg+c@F+P@LAJl\SCE+QRSLEf?B+ABA@C+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+U@A@\W+\H+PJA?Gc_+P>L+X>QGcW+J@RS+*[[d+wAV\+fKQL+!!!"N"5"x"+

,E+ QX>JS+P@RZEQS+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ JH\H?L?>+PWQ@YVZH+P@PLKARH+P@+ V?AEQLVcGc_+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ V?QLVLScGgRLEJK+ QE+XE\VJ@f?>+Q?GFVZH+@ *y5+ wl+5ag5+sx�+ LE?L@+P@RZEQ+YMZ+UWQZEUREX+SJfVLT+?HQMcE?@QLV+P@PLKARMP@ V?AEQLVcGc_+H \_@JqE?G+kV?H?f?G+QVLSHcE+L@_@L@+QERL@JS"

'''(\(\(`(.#LC9d@M>.D=:GF

#P@LeEYH+AZKUM+A PJWY>_S+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+XE\VJ@f?>+P@RZEQZH+w�JHk+!!!"*b"x"+=E\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+@ Ng<+sYMZ+ PeEUEAqGX+ UWQZEUREX+ LJAHCGcG+ JEQLJVRcE+ A @YZHQLV+ ?EV?AEQLVf?Gc_+ ABUHCW+ CHR+ ?H+ ^J@A?V+ cE?LJKZ?GAZKUMg+LHR+S XGQL?Gc_+@JIK?W"+D@S\E+ABUHCE+?H+qR@ZQLAG+YMZM+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+fEJPK?M+\_JSYH+AE+ABqV@UP@AGUHCGcG+ *ya+ cEZ@J@f?G_@+ J@\P@fLS�+ A @QLHL?Gc_+ fKQLEc_g+ \ECXT?H+ A RHPVL@ZE+XV?VQLEJQLAH+ @YJH?MH A?VLJH+YMZM+ABUHCE+fEJPK?M+A J@\QH_S+*`+l+*b+s+J@f?G_@+J@\P@fLS+wA Y>F?Bc_+cE?Kc_x"+

3EZR@AT+ABUHCE+AEeEC?Bc_+J@\P@fLW+A *"+P@Z@ZELG+*[[d+PeV+XE\VJ@f?GX+?@XV?KZ?GX+JWQLS+@ ]gd s+JEKZ?>ABJH\?>+P@RZEQZM"+, CECVc_+JKXcV+RHPVLKZ@AT+ABUHCE+?@XV?KZ?>+QLHI?@AHZMg+?ECABJH\?>CqG+?@XV?KZ?G+JWQL\H\?HXE?HZM+ ABUHCE+ ?H+ AEeEC?@S+ QP@LeEYS+ w@ 5ga+ sx"+ DeV+ AMqqGX+ JWQLS+ J@\P@fL@ABc_+ PeGCXW@ [g] s AMRH\@AHZ@+ _@QP@UHeE?G+ AEeEC?Bc_+ J@\P@fLW+ RE+ R@?cV+ *" P@Z@ZELG+ *[[d+ XGJ?B+ PeEYMLER5gN XZU 8f"+

'''(\(`(.6789:.a>NI>;7e;J.LCL9:DP>

nVZH?cE+\Y@FG+H QZSFEY+AMRK\HZH+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AE+Q"c"+@PJ@LV+ QLEC?TXS+@YU@YG+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RSP@UQLHL?>+ PeG\?VA>CqGc_+ ABQZEURW+ A UWQZEURS+ JMc_ZECqG_@+ JWQLS+ ABA@\S+ w@ N<gd+ sx+ ?EF+ U@A@\Ww@ *<g5 sx"+ 6KP@J?T+ QHZU@+ w?ELL@+ ABA@\+ \Y@FG+ H QZSFEYx+XE\VJ@f?>+ P@RZEQZ@"+ /E_@+ P@UGZ+ ?H+ _JSYTXU@XKcGX+PJ@USRLS+QE+XE\VJ@f?>+Q?GFVZ+@ ag*+PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@USg+LC"+?H+<g`+s"+

N*

Page 26: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

3EZR@AT+XE\VJ@f?G+\ZEPqE?G+QHZUH+YVZH?cE+\Y@FG+H QZSFEY+@AZVA?VZM+_ZHA?>+?KQZEUSCGcG+fLMeV+kHRL@JM|+�+DeG\?VAT+P@UXG?RM+PJ@+@UYML@AT+X@F?@QLV+fEQRT+PJ@USRcE+?H+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+A UWQZEURS+@FVlAE?G+A \EXGc_+\KPHU?G+4AJ@PMg+\ECXT?H+SJMc_ZE?G+_@QP@UKeQRT_@+JWQLS+_ZHA?G_@+@Yc_@U?G_@+PHJLl?EJH+#%&"+

�+8ZEQHCGcG+UM?HXVRH+LS\EXQRT+P@PLKARMg+?H+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+LHR+X@_Z+YBL+JEHZV\@AK?+A>LqG+P@UGZU@XKcG+PJ@USRcE"

�+6HfHZ+ QE+ PJ@CEA@AHL+ EkERL+ U@R@?fE?Bc_+ V?AEQLVcg+ JEHZV\@AH?Bc_+ \ECXT?H+ \H_JH?Vf?GXV+ V?AEQL@JMgRLEJT+PeVQP>ZM+R JWQLS+@YCEXS+ABA@\S+Q AMqqG+PeVUH?@S+_@U?@L@S+AfEL?>+AMQ@cE+Q@kVQLVR@AH?Bc_+PJ@lUSRLW"+

�+&E\H?EUYHLEZ?@S+X>J@S+ QE+ ?H+ JWQLS+ ABA@\S+ P@UGZEZ@+ \HAEUE?G+ PZ@A@ScG_@+ RSJ\S+ R@JS?M+ H CE_@UEPJEcVHcE+P@+RA>L?@ABc_+RSJ\@ABc_+LSJYSZE?cGc_�+AZVA+L@_@L@+kHRL@JS+A UWQZEURS+HPJEcVHcE+RSJ\SA PJABc_+P>LV+X>QGcGc_+J@RS+*[[d+@QZHYVZ"+&H@PHR+?H+QLJH?>+U@A@\W+HPJEcVHcE+RSJ\S+R@JS?M+QP@ZSQ LJAHCGcGX+PeG\?VABX+ABA@CEX+cE?+?H+QA>L@ABc_+R@X@UVL?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+AMLAKeEZH+PeG\?VA>CqG+P@UXG?RMPJ@+JEHZV\HcV+U@A@\W�+Q@SfHQ?>+SAEUE?T+kHRL@JM+Q?VF@AHZM+P@LE?cVKZ?G+V?kZHf?G+?KRZHU@AT+LZHRM+PZMl?@ScG+\ ABA@CE+U@A@\?Gc_+cE?"+

�+,BA@C+@Yc_@U?G+YVZH?cEdy AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+\?HXE?K+P@RJHf@AK?G+PeG\?VAT+LE?UE?cE+PeEUc_@\G_@fLAJLZELG+w�JHk+!!!"N]"x"+#HZU@+@Yc_@U?G+YVZH?cE+QE+A Q@S_J?S+\H+cEZT+*"+P@Z@ZELG+*[[d+AE+QJ@A?K?G+QEQLEC?BX+ @YU@YGX+ PeEUc_@\G_@+ J@RS+ Q?GFVZ@+ @ `5+ s�+ A QHX@L?TX+ X>QGcV+ fEJA?S+ YMZH+ @Yc_@U?GYVZH?cE+LTX>e+AMJ@A?H?K"+

�+D@+\XGJ?>?G+ LEXPH+ JWQLS+U@A@\W+A J@cE+*[[<+U@c_K\G+A J@cE+*[[d+ wV P@+\@_ZEU?>?G+XVX@eKU?>?G\RT+ \KRZHU?M+ QJ@A?HLEZ?T_@+ @YU@YG+ J@RS+ *[[<x+ RE+ \JMc_ZE?G+ CECVc_+ UM?HXVRM"+ DeGfV?S+ L@_@L@ABA@CE+Z\E+AVU>L+A U@P@QSU+J@QL@ScGc_+U@A@\Ec_+PJ@+ABJ@Y?G+QP@LeEYS+A ?KAH\?@QLV+?H+PJ@_ZSYSCGcGQE+R@@PEJHf?G+AH\YM+?>RLEJBc_+P@U?VRW+w\ECXT?H+QE+\H_JH?Vf?G+XHCELR@A@S+^fHQLGx+H UKZE+V A @Y?@lAE?T+ UM?HXVcE+ JWQLS+ V?AEQLVf?Gc_+ U@A@\W+ PeV+ PeG\?VA>CqGc_+ RSJ\@ABc_+ H cE?@ABc_+ P@UXG?RKc_"(ML@+UA>+U@A@\?G+QRSPV?M+QE+P@UGZEZM+P@UZE+^UHCW+\H+PJA?Gc_+P>L+X>QGcW+J@RS+*[[d+?H+cEZR@ABc_U@A@\Ec_+d`gd+s+wPJ@P@fLE?@+?H+\KRZHU>+?@XV?KZ?Gc_+_@U?@Lx"+/ECVc_+ABA@C+@UJKFEZ+J@QL@ScG+P@UGZU@A@\S+?H+LA@JY>+$9D"

#P@LeEY?G+U@A@\M+A _X@L?Bc_+@YCEXEc_+QE+A PJA?G+P@Z@AV?>+J@RS+*[[d+P@_MY@AHZM+?H+\_JSYH+QLEC?T^J@A?V+CHR@+AE+QJ@A?HLEZ?TX+@YU@YG+J@RS+*[[<"+/ECVc_+QLHI?HcV+PeV+cEZR@ATX+P@RZEQS+U@XKcG+QP@LeEYVlLEZQRT+P@PLKARM+Z\E+P@AHF@AHL+\H+UWQZEUER+J@QL@ScG+U@A@\?G+?KJ@f?@QLV+R@?Ef?T+QP@LeEYM+U@XKc?@QLGgCHR+CV+?K\@J?>+U@RSXE?LSCE+�JHk+!!!"*d"+

NN

dy+%@\SXG+QE+A Y>F?Bc_+cE?Kc_+A XEL@UVcE+==0+PJ@+QEQLHAE?G+PZHLEY?G+YVZH?cEg+@QLHL?G+\UE+SAKU>?T+^UHCE+CQ@S+\PJHc@AK?M+A XEL@UVcE+$9D"

Page 27: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'''(\(b(./O89BL

, *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@qZ@+R P@RZEQS+LA@JYM+_JSYT_@+U@XKcG_@+PJ@USRLS+wXE\VJ@f?>+l+]g[+sx"+&H+L@XL@P@RZEQS+ QE+ P@UGZEZ+ A J@\_@USCGcG+ XGeE+ QERL@J+ QZSFEYg+ JWQL+ PeVUH?T+ _@U?@LM+ YMZ+ \H\?HXE?K?+ P@S\EA PJWXMQZS"+,BQZEUER+PJA?G_@+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+P@RJHf@AK?GX+UZ@S_@U@Y>CqG+LE?UE?cE+P@QLSP?T_@+@QZHY@lAK?G+Q?VF@AK?G+XGJM+JWQLS+_JSYT_@+U@XKcG_@+PJ@USRLSg+RLEJT+\HfHZ@+A UJS_T+P@Z@AV?>+J@RS+*[[b"+

'LZSXE?G+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+AEUZ@+A *"+fLAJLZELG+R P@RZEQS+LTX>e+AqEc_+UJS_W+QZSFEY+wQ ABCVXR@S+QP@CWxgRLEJT+ QE+ cEZR@A>+ P@UGZECG+ \_JSYH+ `]+s+ ?H+ LA@JY>+ $9D"+ (E?+ QE+ PJ@CEAVZ+ V A P@RZEQS+ JEKZ?Bc_+ LJFEYA XHZ@@Yc_@US+ H P@_@QLV?QLAG+ wA ?KAH\?@QLV+ ?H+ ABA@C+ JEKZ?Bc_+ PeGCXW+ U@XKc?@QLGx"+&ECA>LqG+ P@RZEQ\H\?HXE?HZ+ PJ@UEC+ HSL@X@YVZW+ H ?EP@LJHAV?KeQRT_@+ \Y@FGg+ Q@SfHQ?>+ RZEQHZM+ V LJFYM+ A P@_@QLV?QLAGH SYML@AK?G+ w@ bga+sx"+ #ZSFYM+ PJ@+ P@U?VRM+ QE+XE\VJ@f?>+ Q?GFVZM+ @ `g[+sg+ @QLHL?G+ QZSFYM+ wPeEAKF?>@Q@Y?G_@+c_HJHRLEJSx+QE+Q?GFVZM+U@R@?cE+@ **g`+s"+D@RZEQ+P@PLKARM+P@+QZSFYKc_+YMZ+J@A?>F+UWQZEUREXABJH\?>CqG_@+JWQLS+cE?+QZSFEY+PeV+Q?VFSCGcGc_+QE+UVQP@?VYVZ?Gc_+\UJ@CGc_+U@XKc?@QLG+wV?UEr+cE?+LJF?Gc_QZSFEY+*aga+s+PeEAMq@AHZ+JWQL+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+LTX>e+UA@C?KQ@Y?>x"+=E\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+JEKZl?Bc_+LJFEY+A XHZ@@Yc_@U>+H P@_@QLV?QLAG+QE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+PJ@_Z@SYVZg+\H+ZEUE?+HF+RA>LE?+U@QK_Z+<g* s"

8 P@RZEQS+ABR@?S+U@qZ@+J@A?>F+A @UA>LAG+QLHAEY?VcLAG+wccH+b+s+P@UGZ+?H+LA@JY>+$9Dx"+=E\VJ@f?G+JWQLQLHAEY?G+ABJ@YM+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+w@ agb+sx+YMZ+PeEUEAqGX+UWQZEUREX+?G\RT+QJ@A?KAHcG+\KRZHU?M+PeEUlc_@\G_@+J@RS"+, PJA?Gc_+P>LV+X>QGcGc_+QLHAEY?G+ABJ@YH+XE\VJ@f?>+P@RZEQZH+@ 5g*+sg+PeGfV?@S+L@_@L@ABA@CE+YMZH+ Q?GFE?K+P@PLKARH+P@+ QLHAEY?Gc_+PJHcGc_g+ AMPZBAHCGcG+ \ ?EU@QLHLRS+ kV?H?f?Gc_+PJ@QLeEURWP@U?VR@AT_@+V AEeEC?T_@+QERL@JS+H \X>?+AE+QLJSRLSeE+V?AEQLVc"

%EZHLVA?>+JMc_ZE+HZE+J@QLZH+PJWXMQZ@AK+ABJ@YH�+CECG+XE\VJ@f?G+JWQL+@ dga+s+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+YMZ+U@QHlFE?+PeV+XGJ?TX+P@RZEQS+P@fLS+PJHc@A?GRW+w@ 5g[+sx"+DeV+P@RZEQS+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+H J@QL@ScG+U@A@\?G?KJ@f?@QLV+QP@LeEYVLEZQRT+P@PLKARM+YMZ+JWQL+PJWXMQZ@AT+ABJ@YM+P@\VLVA?>+QLVXSZ@AK?+PeEUEAqGX+XE\VlJ@f?GX+ JWQLEX+ A?>CqG+ P@PLKARM"+ ! PeEQ+XGJ?T+ \P@XHZE?G+ JWQLS+ AE+ N" fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ \WQLHZH+ UM?HXVRHJWQLS+PJWXMQZ@AT+ABJ@YM+P@X>J?>+AMQ@RK+wXE\VJ@f?>+\H+PJA?Gc_+P>L+X>QGcW+*[[d+<g*+sx"+

%WQL+ PJWXMQZ@AT+ABJ@YM+YMZ+ Q@SfHQ?>+U@PJ@AK\E?+ J@\qVeSCGcGXV+ QE+ R@@PEJHf?GXV+ ABJ@Y?GXV+ AH\YHXVw\ECXT?H+P@U?VRW+QE+\H_JH?Vf?G+XHCELR@A@S+^fHQLGxg+RLEJT+AMA@ZKAHZM+\ABqE?T+?KJ@RM+?H+U@A@\M+XHLElJVKZW+H R@XP@?E?LW+\E+\H_JH?VfG"+(HL@+QRSLEf?@QL+AEUZH+RE+\AMq@AK?G+P@UGZS+U@A@\S+?H+ LA@JY>+$9Dw�JHk+!!!"NN"x"

N5

Page 28: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

, JWQLS+PJWXMQZ@AT+ABJ@YM+ErVQL@AHZM+A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+XE\V+ CEU?@LZVABXV+PJWXMQZ@ABXV+@UA>LAGXVJ@\UGZM"+D@\VLVA?G+ABA@C+PeVUH?T+_@U?@LM+YMZ+\H\?HXE?K?+A *" fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AE+\PJHc@AHLEZQRTX+PJWlXMQZSg+RUE+_JSYK+PeVUH?K+_@U?@LH+A\J@QLZH+XE\VJ@f?>+@ AGcE+?EF+*]+s"

, \EX>U>ZQLAG+ABA@C+V?UVRKL@JW+@ PJ@UECV+FVA@fVq?T+PJ@USRcE+QVI?HZV\@AHZ+XGJ?B+JWQL"+(JFYM+A \EX>U>ZlQLAGg+QZEU@AH?T+:#O+\H+AEZRT+P@U?VRM+wPeEUQLHASCGcG+\_JSYH+P@Z@AV?S+@UA>LAG+\EX>U>ZQLAGxg+A\J@QLZM+\HPJA?Gc_+P>L+X>QGcW+ J@RS+*[[d+XE\VJ@f?>+@ *g[+s+AE+ QLKZBc_+cE?Kc_"+DeG\?VA>CqG+ LE?UE?cE+AE+ABA@CVkV?H?f?Gc_+ SRH\HLEZW+ AMYJH?T_@+ Q@SY@JS+ A>LqGc_+ ?EkV?H?f?Gc_+ @JIH?V\HcG+ H R@JP@JHcG+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG*[[d+AE+QJ@A?K?G+QE+QLEC?BX+@YU@YGX+XV?SZT_@+J@RS+?H\?HfSCGg+FE+QE+A SJfVLBc_+QEIXE?LEc_+ER@?@lXVRM+\HfG?HCG+P@QLSP?>+PJ@QH\@AHL+ LE?UE?cE+RE+\ABqE?G+ EkERLVA?@QLV+ ABJ@Y?Gc_+PJ@cEQW+H CECVc_+PeGQlP>ARS+R LA@JY>+$9D"+(E?L@+ LJE?U+QE+PJ@CEA@AHZ+ CVF+A ?>RLEJBc_+fLAJLZELGc_+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RSg+ CE+AqHR?SL?@+PeV_ZTU?@SL+R AEZXV+?G\RT+\KRZHU?>+QJ@A?HLEZ?T_@+@YU@YG+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS+H UKZE+R kHRLSg+FECUE+@ fLAJLZEL?G+^UHCE+A ?@XV?KZ?GX+AMCKUeE?G+\H+AMYJH?B+Q@SY@J+@JIH?V\HcG"

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

Na

=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+A+!"�"*[[d A+s+++++++++ *"+fLAJLZELG \X>?H

*[[< *[[d A+PJ@c"+Y@UEc_

,B?@QM+cEZREX *<g] %E?LHYVZVLH+?KRZHUW+w\VQRy?KRZHUMx 5gdN `ga* *g`[

,BR@?M+cEZREX *bgN %E?LHYVZVLH+AZHQL?G_@+CX>?G+w\VQRyAZ"+CX>?Gx *g`] Nga` ]g[`

&KRZHUM+cEZREX *`gN %E?LHYVZVLH+ABR@?W+w\VQRyABR@?Mx ag[[ <g]* Ng]N

\+L@_@|+ABR@?@AK+QP@LeEYH *ag[ =HLEJVKZ@AK+?KJ@f?@QL+wABR"+QP@Le"yABR@?Mx b<g]b bbg5N l]g<a

@Q@Y?G+?KRZHUM+*y <g[ =\U@AK+?KJ@f?@QL+w@Q@Y"+?KRZ"yABR@?Mx *<ga5 *bg*d l*gN`

6VQR+PeEU+\UH?>?GX b5ga

*y+6H_J?SCE+X\U@AT+H+@QLHL?G+@Q@Y?G+?KRZHUMg+@UX>?M+fZE?WX+QP@ZEf?@QLV+H+UJSFQLAHg+?KRZHUM+?H+Q@cVKZ?G++\HYE\PEfE?G+H+Q@c"+?KRZHUM

)*+,---,`,""^B+@*4G"T<4*4E45"J1*'*#828"'*".,"E#!@#28#5".]]\"M+DH4G">84BOM'*"48T<4*4E45"$@I*4<'*>8"*"1$@:$@*>8"!F8>("$3!D#!5"4*3".[[":@*>$!451AO

Page 29: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

DeV+ JMc_ZECqGX+ JWQLS+ AB?@QW+ ?EF+ ?KRZHUW+ _JSYB+ \VQR+ A\J@QLZ+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ PJ@LV+ QJ@A?HLEZ?TXS@YU@YG+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS+@ *5gd+XZU" 8fg+P@fEL+\LJKL@ABc_+P@U?VRW+QE+Q?GFVZ+@ CEU?S+P>LV?Sg+YMZM+U@QHlFE?M+ JEZHLVA?G+ ^QP@JM+ A XHLEJVKZ@AT+ QP@LeEY>+ H X\U@AT+ ?KRZHU@A@QLV+ ABJ@YMg+ \ZEPqVZH+ QE+ JE?LHYVZVLH?KRZHUWg+ ABR@?W+ V AZHQL?G_@+ CX>?G"+ ,E+ QLJSRLSeE+ ?KRZHUW+ J@QLZM+ HZE+ JEZHLVA?>+ JMc_ZE+ @QLHL?Gg+ kV?H?f?GH XVX@eKU?T+?KRZHUMg+RLEJT+QE+?H+cEZR@ABc_+?KRZHUEc_+P@UGZECG+\_JSYH+CEU?@S+LeELV?@S+H CECVc_F+ABA@CAEUZ+RE Q?GFE?G+_@QP@UKeQRT_@+ABQZEURS+@ ccH a XZU" 8f"+6 @UA>LA@AT_@+P@_ZEUS+QE+?H+ LA@JY>+_JSlYT_@+\VQRS+P@UGZEZ@+A J@\_@USCGcG+XGeE+@UA>LAG+PJWXMQZS+wd`+sx"+6LJKLH+YMZH+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AMRKl\K?H+P@S\E+A U@PJHA>+H A \EX>U>ZQLAGg+?EU@QH_@AHZH+AqHR+^J@A?>+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS"

&HUKZE+HZE+PeELJAKAHZ+?EPeG\?VAB+LJE?U+AE+ABA@CV+PZHLEY?G+Qc_@P?@QLV+P@U?VRW�+\KAH\RM+P@+Z_WL>+QPZHLl?@QLV+ QE+RE+R@?cV+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+A P@J@A?K?G+QE+QLEC?BX+@YU@YGX+XV?SZT_@+J@RS+\ABqVZM+@ *ag`+sH PJA@L?G+\HUZSFE?@QL+A\J@QLZH+@ N*gb+XZU" 8f+w?H+b5g[+XZU" 8fx"+DeEQ+SJfVLT+P@\VLVA?G+QVI?KZM+\WQLKAHZHP@+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+cEZR@AK+kV?H?f?G+QVLSHcE+P@U?VR@AT+QkTJM+AEZXV+qPHL?K+w?HPe"+P@UGZ+AZHQL?G_@+CX>?G?H+HRLVAEc_+P@U?VRW+?EU@QH_@AHZ+`]+sxf.Q@S_J??T+^UHCE+PeVL@X+PZ?>+?EP@QLV_@AHZM+J@QL@ScG+UVkEJE?cVlHcV+XE\V+CEU?@LZVABXV+P@U?VRM"

'''(`(.,IN.LI:[email protected]:?;C89J.

'''(`(V(./ODCY.LdJYH_.GCH:?;C89J.

(JE?U+RE+ Q?VF@AK?G+XE\VJ@f?G_@+ JWQLS+cEZR@ABc_+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLGg+P@QLSP?>+QE+PJ@QH\SCGcG+@U+ J@RS*[[ag+P@RJHf@AHZ+V A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d"+=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+PE?>F?Gc_+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLG+QE+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[dPJ@LV+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<+\P@XHZVZ+@ Nga+PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@US+?H+[g<+s�+PeV+ L@XL@+?@XV?KZ?GX+JWQLS+PeGCXMU@XKc?@QLG+XE\VJ@f?>+JEKZ?>+P@RZEQZM+@ 5gN+s"+8 P@RZEQS+PeGCXW+U@qZ@+AE+AqEc_+CECVc_+_ZHA?Gc_+QZ@FlRKc_+ l A PeGCXEc_+ \ XE\Ug+ Q@cVKZ?Gc_+ PeGCXEc_+ H V @QLHL?Gc_+ PeGCXEc_"+ %WQL+ XE\Ug+ CHR@+ J@\_@USCGcGQZ@FRM+PeGCXW+U@XKc?@QLGg+QE+PJ@LV+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<+XE\VJ@f?>+Q?GFVZ+@ ]g`+PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@US+?H+<g< s"

8E+\P@XHZE?G+JWQLS+?@XV?KZ?G_@+@YCEXS+XE\U+H CE_@+JEKZ?TXS+P@RZEQS+U@qZ@+CHR+A P@U?VRHLEZQRTg+LHRJ@\P@fL@AT+QkTeE"+6P@XHZE?G+JWQLS+XE\U+A ?EP@U?VRHLEZQRT+QkTeE+YMZ@+PeEUEAqGX+UWQZEUREX+SPZHLt@AHl?Bc_+JEQLJVRLVA?Gc_+X\U@ABc_+@PHLeE?G+A V?QLVLScGc_+eG\E?Bc_+AZKU@S+wPeEUEAqGX+J@\P@fL@ABc_+@JIH?Vl\HcGc_x"+D@XHZECqG+JWQL+X\U@ABc_+PeGCXW+AE+QkTeE P@U?VRHLEZQRT+YMZ+UWQZEUREX+P@QLSPSCGcG+JEQLJSRLSJHlZV\HcE+ fKQLV+ P@U?VRWg+ J@QL@ScG+ R@?RSJE?cEg+ \_@JqSCGcG+ QE+ QLKAHCGcG+ kV?H?f?G+ QVLSHcE+ P@U?VRW�+ LML@+ LE?lUE?cE+AEUZM+R P@RZEQS+\HX>QL?H?@QLV+H R P@RZEQS+UM?HXVRM+JWQLS+PJWX>J?Bc_+XE\U"+%EKZ?T+PJWX>J?TX\UM+PeV+UH?TX+V?kZHf?GX+ABA@CV+\H\?HXE?HZM+AqE@YEc?B+P@RZEQ+w(HY"!!!"["x"+

N`

'8262(41+ #8'(4:&.#(+

*[[5 *[[a *[[` *[[b *[[< !y*[[< !y*[[d

DE?>F?G+PeGCXM+U@XKc?@QLG w?@XV?KZ?Gx N<gb *[g] *dga *5g5 *Ng* *Ngb [g<

wJEKZ?Tx `gb dg5 dg` ag* 5g5 `gN l5gN

A+L@X|+

DeGCXM+\+XE\U w?@XV?KZ?Gx N`g< *[g] *dg* *bgd dgN **g* <g<

wJEKZ?Tx ag* dg5 dgN <ga l]g5 5gd l`g]

DJWX>J?K+X\UH w?@XV?KZ?Gx N`g] *<g* *<g` *dg] **g[ *5g< *]g[

wJEKZ?Kx 5g` bgb <g< dg` 5g* bgN lNg*

&KJ@U@_@QP@UKeQRK+PJ@USRLVAVLH+PJKcE+ *g[ *gb ag` Ng< *g< *ga ]gd

/EU?@LR@AT+X\U@AT+?KRZHUM 5<gb *`g5 **g] *Nga <gN [g< dgb

w?@XV?KZ?G+PeGCXM+\+XE\U+?H+$9D+A+Q"c"x

)*+,---,\,"/012*345"63*78"$"%'3$!G%"!=!$7<"*":@$3J1#<!<#D":@0>8 %8'<@$E45"'%D4*"!"N

Page 30: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

8E+ Q?GFE?G+XGJM+ JWQLS+U@qZ@+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ V S PeGCXW+P@QRML@AH?Bc_+AE+ k@JX>+ Q@cVKZ?Gc_+UKAER+ wPJ@LVR@?cV+J@RS+*[[<+P@RZEQ+@ N+Y@UM+?H+**gN+sxg+RLEJT+PeEUQLHASCG+\_JSYH+*b+s+Y>F?Bc_+PeGCXW+U@XKcl?@QLG"+/ECVc_+Q?GFE?G+YMZ@+@AZVA?>?@+PeEUEAqGX+ABJH\?>CqGX+P@RZEQEX+?EX@cE?QRBc_+H @QLHL?Gc_+UKAER"&ECABJH\?>CV+P@RZEQZH+UM?HXVRH+JWQLS+@QLHL?Gc_+PeGCXW+w@ bg*+PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@US+PJ@LV+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<?H+*Ngb+sxg+PeEQL@+QV+HZE+?HUKZE+SUJFEZM+?ECAMqqG+LEXP@+JWQLS"+

,BA@C+?KJ@U@_@QP@UKeQRT+PJ@USRLVAVLM+PJKcE+wX>eE?T+?H+YK\V+$9Dx+H PJWX>J?T+JEKZ?T+X\UM+A *"+fLAJLlZELG+*[[d+wCECVc_F+A\KCEX?K+JEZHcE+CE+CEU?GX+\ V?UVRKL@JW+P@PLKAR@AT_@+V?kZHf?G_@+LZHRS+A ER@?@XVcExP@LAJUVZ+SUJFE?G+PeEUQLV_S+XE\VJ@f?G_@+ LEXPH+ JWQLS+PJ@USRLVAVLM+PJKcE+PeEU+XE\VJ@f?GX+ JWQLEX+PJWlX>J?T+ JEKZ?T+ X\UMg+ PJ@QH\SCGcG_@+ QE+ @U+ 5" fLAJLZELG+ J@RS+ *[[<"+ 'UJFE?G+ PeG\?VAT+ JEZHcE+ AqHR+ YMZ@UWQZEUREX+Q?GFE?G+ LEXPH+JWQLS+PJ@USRLVAVLM+PJKcE+PeV JEKZ?TX+P@RZEQS+PJWX>J?Bc_+XE\U+PJ@LV+R@?cVJ@RS+*[[<"+'AEUE?B+ABA@C+QVI?HZV\@AHZ+UHZqG+Q?GFE?G+P@PLKAR@ABc_+LZHRW+?H+cE?@AB+JWQL"+DeEUQLV_+JWQLSPJ@USRLVAVLM+PJKcE+PeEU+ JWQLEX+PJWX>J?Bc_+ JEKZ?Bc_+XE\U+YMZ+\H\?HXE?K?+ CHR+A @UA>LAG+PJWXMQZSgLHR+QLHAEY?VcLAG"

Nb

'8262(41 #8'(4:&.#(

!y[b !!y[b !!!y[b !,y[b *[[b !y[< !!y[< !!!y[< !,y[< *[[< !y[d

D%z=i%&7+=692+,+:%++++++++++ ?@XV?KZ?G+ *<ga N*g] *bg` *<g* *dg] *5g< *5g] *Nga dga **g[ *]g[

JEKZ?K <g[ **gb bgb <gd dg` bgN bg] Ng5 l*g` 5g* lNg*

!""#$%&

&EP@U?VRHLEZQRK+QkTJH+++++++++ ?@XV?KZ?G+ *`g] 55g] *`g5 *dg` N]gb *NgN **g* *]gN lbgb `gd `g]

JEKZ?K `g< NNgb `g` [g* *]gd agb agN ]g5 l*`gN lNg` l<g5

D@U?VRHLEZQRK+QkTJH++++++++++++++ ?@XV?KZ?G *dgN *<g* *<g] *bgb *<g* *ag* *5gb *5g] *5g] *5gb *Ngb

JEKZ?K dg< <g[ <g] <g5 <gb bga bgb Ngd Ngb ag< l]gb

!""#$%&

Q@SRJ@XT+@JIH?V\HcE+++++ ?@XV?KZ?G+*y *`gb *bg* *bg] *<gN *bg* *5g< *5gN **gb **g[ *Ng< **g5

JEKZ?K bg5 <g] bg* <g[ bg< bg* bgN *gb *gb 5g[ l*gd

QLKL?G+@JIH?V\HcE++++++++++++ ?@XV?KZ?G+Ny *<ga Ndgb *bgN *bgb *[g< *Ngd *Ng` **ga l]ga dgb bgd

JEKZ?K <g[ *dg` bg5 <g5 *]g] `gN `g` *ga l[g` ]g* l`g<

\H_JH?Vf?G+@JIH?V\HcE ?@XV?KZ?G+5y *bgb **g< *NgN *dg` *ag5 *<g* *Nga *<g* *ag[ *<g5 `g*

JEKZ?K <g[ *dg` bg5 <g5 *]g] `gN `g` *ga l[g` ]g* l<gN

)*+,---,],"^=!$7":@A%D@4G"%'3B""M%8'<@$E45"'%D4*"!"NO

*y+6H_J?SCG+LS\EXQRT+wkM\VcRT+H+PJKA?VcRTx+@Q@YM+YE\+QLKL?G+^fHQLV

Ny+6H_J?SCG+LS\EXQRT+wkM\VcRT+H+PJKA?VcRTx+@Q@YM+QE+QLKL?G+^fHQLV

5y+6H_J?SCG+QSYCERLM+QE+*]]+s+\H_JH?Vf?GX+RHPVLKZEX

DJHXE?|+:#O"

Page 31: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

,BA@C+?@XV?KZ?Gc_+CEU?@LR@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+?KRZHUW+w/=&xg+CHR@+AB\?HX?B+?KRZHU@AB+V?kZHf?G+V?UVRKlL@J+H ?KAH\?>+V V?UVRKL@J+ABA@CE+R@?RSJE?cEQc_@P?@QLV+LS\EXQRT+PJ@USRcEg+J@A?>F+A *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d?H\?Hf@AHZ+ P@RJHf@AK?G+ PeG\?VABc_+ LE?UE?cG+ \ J@RS+ *[[<"+ %Mc_ZECqG+ JWQL+ CEU?@LR@ABc_+ X\U@ABc_?KRZHUW+@PJ@LV+UEkZKL@JS+$9D+@U+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[b+U@+5"+fLAJLZELG+*[[<+?H\?HfSCEg+FE+QRSLEf?T+X\U@A>+l?KRZHU@AT+ V?kZHf?G+ LZHRM+QE+PJ@XGLHZM+U@+cE?@AT_@+JWQLS+ CE?+fKQLEf?>+H HF+ABA@C+AE+a"+fLAJLZELG+*[[<H A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ QVI?HZV\SCE+ P@QLSP?T+ AMJ@A?KAK?G+XE\EJM+XE\V+ /=&+ H UEkZKL@JEX"+ (E?L@+ \KA>JP@UP@JSCE+V A\KCEX?B+ABA@C+/=&+H cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+@U+J@RS+*[[a+HF+U@+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d�A SAEUE?TX+@YU@YG+V?UEr+JWQLS+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+\H@QLKAHZ+\H+JWQLEX+/=&+A PJWX>JS+@ ]gdPJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@US"

'''(`(\(.Q>HX89;>;C89.> ;@a>HX89;>;C89

DJ@+ABA@C+?H+LJ_S+PJKcE+A PJWY>_S+*"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+YMZ@+c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRT+P@RJHf@AK?G+\X>?g+RLEJT+YMZMABJH\?>CV+?HQLHJL@AK?M+A PeEUc_@\GX+J@cE"+, J@cE+*[[<+YMZ+\H\?HXE?K?+HYQ@ZSL?G+P@RZEQ+\HX>QL?Hl?@QLV+ H U@qZ@+ R JWQLS+ ?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV"+ 3EZR@AK+ \HX>QL?H?@QL+ A ?KJ@U?GX+ _@QP@UKeQLAG+ P@RZEQZHA *" fLAJLZELG+*[[d+@ *g5+s+PJ@LV+QLEC?TXS+@YU@YG+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS"+%@\_@USCGcGXV+AZVAMg+RLEJT+@AZVAl?VZM+ABA@C+?H+LJ_S+PJKcE+A J@cE+*[[<+V ?H+P@fKLRS+J@RS+*[[dg+YMZM|+

�+\P@XHZE?G+H P@LT+P@RZEQ+ER@?@XVcRT_@+JWQLSg+AM^QuSCGcG+AE+Q?GFE?G+P@PLKARM+P@+PJHc@A?Gc_+QVZKc_g�+JEQLJSRLSJHZV\HcE+A fKQLV+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+P@U?VRWg+PJ@CEASCGcG+QE+AMqqGX+LEXPEX+JWQLS+ABJ@YM+H PJ@lUSRLVAVLM+PJKcE+A L>c_L@+P@U?VcGc_+PeV+RZEQHCGcGX+P@fLS+PJHc@A?GRW"+

N<

'8262(41+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++#8'(4:&.#( *[dd

*[[5 *[[a *[[` *[[b !y[< !!y[< !!!y[< !,y[< *[[< *y[d Ny[d 5y[d ay[d `y[d by[dD@fEL+\HX>QL?H?Bc_+A+&$+cEZREX+wPJWX"+P@fLMx

=\J"+\X>?H+A+s l*gb ]gd Ngb ]gb l]gN l]g5 l*ga l*ga l*g] � � l*g5 � � �

0M\VcRT+@Q@YM+l+P@fEL+wA+LVQ"x adadgN addag< `]**gb `]aa a[`[g5 a[`N a[a` a[a* a[a[ � � ad[< � � �

D@fEL+?E\HX>QL?H?Bc_+*x

0M\VcRT+@Q@YM+l+P@fEL+wA+LVQ"x *`5g] *dbg5 *[[gb N]Ngb Na<gb � Nbdg[ Nd<g* Nd[gN Ndag* N<<gb N<`g5 Nd[g`

=GJH+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV Ng[ 5g` 5g[ ag] agd � `gN `gb `gb `g` `ga `g5 `gb

D@fEL+Sc_H\EfW+?H+*+A@Z?T+PJHc@A?G+XGQL@+*x *g< NgN Ng5 Ng` 5ga � ag5 ag< agb aga agN aga `g]

)*+,---,.[,""/012*345"63*78"$"!=!$7<"'*%D9#4*4$9#<"*"48'*%D9#4*4$9#<

*x+QLHA+RE+R@?cV+@YU@YG

Page 32: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

6 @UA>LA@AT_@+P@_ZEUS+YMZ+?ECJMc_ZECqG+XE\VJ@f?G+P@RZEQ+\H\?HXE?K?+w@ AGcE+CHR+5+sx+AE QLHAEY?VcLAGg\EX>U>ZQLAG+H A PE?>F?VcLAG�+A PJWXMQZS+YMZ+P@RZEQ+?VFqG+wl+*g[+sxg+HAqHR+PeV+\?Hf?T+@UA>LA@AT+UVkEJE?lcVHcV"+ DJ@AEUE?K+ QLHLVQLVcRK+ qELeE?G+ AE+ QZEU@AH?Bc_+ @JIH?V\HcGc_+ Q N] H AGcE+ \HX>QL?H?cV+ P@LAJ\SCGV QLJSRLSJKZ?G+PeEQS?M+XE\V+JW\?BXV+LMPM+@JIH?V\HcG"+DeV+cEZR@ATX+XE\VJ@f?GX+P@RZEQS+\HX>QL?H?@QLVAE+QZEU@AH?Bc_+@JIH?V\HcGc_+@ Nga+s+JMc_ZECV+RZEQHZH+\HX>QL?H?@QL+A P@U?VRHLEZQRT+QkTeE+w@ Ngd+sx+?EFAE+QkTeE+?EP@U?VRHLEZQRTg+RUE+YMZ+AMRK\K?+P@RZEQ+P@S\E+]gd+s"+D@RZEQ+\HX>QL?H?@QLV+A P@U?VRHLEZQRTQkTeE+YMZ+fKQLEf?>+HYQ@JY@AK?+QERL@JEX+XHZBc_+P@U?VRW+wLC"+Q XT?>+?EF+N]+\HX>QL?H?cVxg+RUE+\HX>QLl?H?@QL+AMRK\HZH+XGJ?B+XE\VJ@f?G+?KJWQL+@ *g`+s"

(JE?U+R JWQLS+XGJM+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLVg+RLEJB+\EQGZVZ+A J@cE+*[[<g+P@RJHf@AHZ+V A *"+H N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d"+DeEQUGZfG+@YAMRZT+QE\m??G+R@ZGQK?G+wZEUE?+l+RA>LE?x+A\J@QLZH+XGJH+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV+RE+R@?cV+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[dPJ@LV+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<+@ UHZqGc_+]ga+s+w�JHk+ !!!"N`"x"+ /ECG+ JWQL+YMZ+AEUZE+ CVF+\XG?>?Bc_+kHRL@JW+ wP@RZEQ_@QP@UKeQRT_@+JWQLSg+JEQLJSRLSJHZV\HcEx+LHRT+@AZVAt@AK?+?HUKZE+?G\R@S+X@YVZVL@S+PJHc@A?Gc_+QVZ�+LE?L@kHRL@J+ PeVQPGAHZ+ R J@QL@ScG+ JEIV@?KZ?G+ UVkEJE?cVHcV+ XGJM+ ?E\HX>QL?H?@QLVg+ PJ@_ZSY@AK?G+ JEIV@?KZ?G_@RAHZVkVRHf?G_@+ ?EQ@SZHUS+ XE\V+ ?HYGUR@S+ H P@PLKAR@S+ ?H+ LJ_S+ PJKcE+ wQLJSRLSJKZ?G+ ?E\HX>QL?H?@QLVx"6 P@_ZEUS+ CEU?@LZVABc_+JEIV@?W+YMZH+?ECAMqqG+XGJH+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV+ w?HU+*] sx+AMRH\@AK?H+A ?>RLElJBc_+@RJEQEc_+QEAEJ@fEQRT_@+H QEAEJ@X@JHAQRT_@+RJHCE"+6 _ZEUVQRH+RAHZVkVRHf?G+QLJSRLSJM+J@QLZH+?E\HlX>QL?H?@QL+PeEUEAqGX+S PJHc@A?GRW+QE+\KRZHU?GX+A\U>ZK?GX"+D@QLSP?>+HZE+?HJWQLHZH+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV AE+QRSPV?>+QLeEU@qR@ZKRW"

%@QL@ScG+ ?HP>LG+ ?H+ LJ_S+ PJKcE+ QVI?HZV\@AHZ+ LHRT+ RZEQHCGcG+ P@fEL+ A@Z?Bc_+ PJHc@A?Gc_+XGQL+ PeV+ J@QL@ScGXGeE+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV"+8E+R@?cV+fEJA?Hg+A P@J@A?K?G+Q R@?cEX+J@RS+*[[<g+QE+Q?GFVZH+?HYGURH+A@Z?Bc_PJHc@A?Gc_+XGQL+@ a+LVQ"+XGQL�+A fEJA?S+LHR+PeVPHUHZ@+?H+*+XGQL@+`+@Q@Y+wR@?cEX+J@RS+*[[<+ag5+@Q@Yx"

'''(b(.!89>9;J.;:P=>GCDE.7;G7P:9CIF.

'''(b(V(.4@;F.DOICM?_.

.PJ@LV+*"+fLAJLZELGg+RUM+YMZ+JWQL+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+P@X>J?>+AMQ@RB+A UWQZEURS+UEPJEcVHcE+?HR@?cV+PeEUc_@\G_@+J@RS+H ?EIHLVA?Gc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+ErPERLHcGg+QE+CECVc_+JWQL+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+ LTX>e\HQLHAVZ+wA USY?S+H RA>L?S+U@QK_Z+XE\VX>QGf?G+cE?@AB+JWQL+]g*+s+H A fEJA?S+cE?M+P@RZEQZM+@ ]g*+sx"

W*:;512*3"! $3!D#!5"3$+=!045"48@$9#4=>("9J@$!<4"M! 40!*'4$9#<"4*"6#2J%$!G":@$I@*%BOZ"! 1$19$!045* @*T<4G@91G%"':@*>$!045"@$:B"* 1$H83D24G%":@A%B92J":$12892*"'*%D9#4*4$9#"$ !5>8"48H"`"N,"W*$_:*1"40@A9#"'*%D9#4*4$9#<"!B10'*2$"$3!D#!5"3;8!$':@*>J75>5Z"8281#@<>1=>("* $:#<>1=>(":;59#@$7AZ"IJ%0_@8491G"* :2*9#<10;91G,"

Nd

Page 33: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

DeGfV?@S+L@_@L@+ABA@CE+YMZ+AZVA+Q@S_J?S+P@PLKAR@ABc_+V ?HYGUR@ABc_+kHRL@JW+wQZHYK+U@XKcG+P@PLKARHgRSJ\@AT+AZVAMg+ABA@C+XE\U+A PJWXMQZ@ABc_+P@U?VcGc_g+ABA@C+QA>L@ABc_+cE?+QSJ@AV?x"+9WQZEUREX+SAElUE?T_@+ cE?@AT_@+P@_MYS+YMZ@+ Q?GFE?G+XE\VJ@f?G_@+ JWQLS+ cE?+ ABJ@YcW+ \ bg`+s+A YeE\?S+?H+`gb+sA fEJA?S"

3E?M+QLHAEY?Gc_+PJHcG+\H\?HXE?HZM+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q ABA@CEX+A *" fLAJLZELG+*[[d+XGJ?TQ?GFE?G+XGJM+ JWQLS"+6HLGXc@+A PJA?GX+fLAJLZELG+ QE+ CECVc_+XE\VJ@f?G+UM?HXVRH+ JWQLS+P@_MY@AHZH+A J@\lXE\G+*]g<+l+**g<+sg+A USY?S+H RA>L?S+P@RZEQZH+?H+_@U?@LM+XGJ?>+?HU+*]+s+H A fEJA?S+U@QK_ZH+J@Al?Bc_+ *]+s"+ ! PeEQ+XGJ?B+ P@RZEQ+ ?EAMY@fSCE+ U@QHAHU?G+ ABA@C+ \ UZ@S_@U@YBc_+ ABA@C@ABc_+ LE?UE?cGL>c_L@+ cE?"+ (JAHCGcG+ JEZHLVA?>+ AMQ@RK+ UM?HXVRH+ JWQLS+ cE?+ QLHAEY?Gc_+ PJHcG+ PeV+ cEZR@ATX+ @QZHYE?GP@PLKARM+A ER@?@XVcE+?HQA>UfSCE+L@XSg+FE+V?kZHcE+QE+A LTL@+@YZHQLV+QLKAK+?KRZHU@A>+LHFE?@S+wPeEUElAqGX+JWQL+cE?+QLHAEY?Gc_+XHLEJVKZW+HC"x"+

6HLGXc@+ A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ A\J@QLZM+ cE?M+ \EX>U>ZQRBc_+ ABJ@YcW+XE\VJ@f?>+ A PJWX>JS+ @ ag` sg+ AEN" fLAJLZELG+ *[[d+ QE+ JWQL+ \ABqVZ+ ?HU+^J@AEt+*]+s+ wUSYE?+*]g*+sg+ RA>LE?+*5gN+sg+ fEJAE?+*5g*sx"+ D@P@QLSP?TX+P@RZEQS+XE\VJ@f?G+UM?HXVRM+JWQLS+A ZELEc_+*[[a+l+*[[<+w*[[a+*]g*+sg+*[[`+bg*+sg+*[[bbgd+sg+*[[<+Ng`+sx+ LEUM+ABA@C+cE?+\EX>U>ZQRBc_+ABJ@YcW+A *" P@Z@ZELG+*[[d+@P>L+ QVI?HZV\@AHZ+ LE?lUE?cV+R JWQLSg+PeEUEAqGX+A UWQZEURS+UZ@S_@U@Y>CqG+?VFqG+XGJM+JWQLS+L>c_L@+cE?+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q JWQLEX+cE?P@LJHAV?"

N[

Page 34: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'''(b(\(.TCDCa;J.?@;F

,E+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+XE\VJ@f?G+ JWQL+U@A@\?Gc_+cE?+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q *"+fLAJLZELGX+\P@XHZVZ�+ CECVc_+JWQL+\HZEUE?+l+RA>LE?+U@QK_Z+5g<+s"+(E?L@+JEZHLVA?>+PeG\?VAB+ABA@C+YMZ+PeEUEAqGX+UWQZEUREX+HPJEcVHcE+?@XVl?KZ?G_@+RSJ\S+R@JS?M+H UKZE+J@A?>F+P@RZEQS+cE?+QSJ@AV?+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_g+RLEJB+YMZ+PHLJ?B+CVF+A J@cE*[[<g+HZE+\ABJH\?VZ+A PJA?G+P@Z@AV?>+J@RS+*[[d"+

3E?@AB+V?UEr+QSJ@AV?+H P@LJHAV?+QE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AE+QJ@A?K?G+QE+QLEC?BX+@YU@YGX+PeEUc_@\G_@J@RS+ Q?GFVZ+ @ *[g<+s�+ ?EC_ZSYqG+ P@RZEQ+ PeVL@X+ \H\?HXE?HZM+ cE?M+ E?EJIELVcRBc_+ QSJ@AV?+ w@ Naga sx",B\?HX?>+ P@RZEQZM+ V cE?M+ P@LJHAV?+ H PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ QSJ@AV?"+ D@\VLVA?G+ EkERL+ P@RZEQS+ QA>L@ABc_+ cE?QSJ@AV?+YMZ+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@+SJfVLT+XGJM+R@XPE?\@AK?+RSJ\@ABX+ABA@CEX"+6H+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[dgAE+QJ@A?K?G+QE+QLEC?BX+@YU@YGX+*[[<g+RSJ\+R@JS?M+AWfV+?>XEcRT+XHJcE+@QZHYVZ+@ *g[+s"

5]

Page 35: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'/(.!Z$,g5*-.Wh*!/i.Z!3','SU.$ '*23$6*-./0%35T

'/(V(./ODCY.7;<=>?@.> [email protected]@9@IH7;>;9F.j.8NI;B9J.N=>D;J?N.9@;G@;?J

, PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@qZ@+R @QZHYE?G+ V?kZHf?Gc_+ LZHRW"+=E\VX>QGf?G+PeGJWQLRM+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_cE?+ V fVQLT+ V?kZHcE+A L@XL@+@YU@YG+P@LAJUVZMg+FE+PeG\?VAB+ABA@C+A YeE\?S+?EYMZ+ABCVXEf?Bg+HZE+FE+YMZP@fKLREX+?>R@ZVRHX>QGf?G+R@JERcE+JWQLS+cE?+A ZEU?S+H A ^?@JS"+, Q@SZHUS+Q PeEUP@RZHUM+:&n+U@qZ@A YeE\?S+RE+RSZXV?HcV+ V?kZHcE+H A UHZqGc_+X>QGcGc_+R CECGXS+P@QLSP?TXS+ Q?VF@AK?G"+=E\VJ@f?G+ fVQLKV?kZHcE+P@RZEQZH+\E+<g[+s+A YeE\?S+?H+bg`+s+A fEJA?S+H XE\VJ@f?G+JWQL+V?UErS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+QEQ?GFVZ+\ *5ga+s+?H+*N+s"+(GXL@+ABA@CEX+QE+P@LAJ\SCE+QLeEU?>U@YB+UEQV?kZHf?G+LJE?U+QX>eSCGcG+RE+QPZl?>?G+RJKLR@U@YT_@+cGZE+A fVQLT+V?kZHcV+R@?cEX+J@RS+*[[d+H AMLAKeECGcG+U@YJT+PeEUP@RZHUM+PJ@+U@QHFE?GQLeEU?>U@YT_@+ cGZE+ A J@cE+ N]]]"+ D@QLSP?K+ UEQV?kZHcE+ CE+ ?E\YML?@S+ Q@SfKQLG+ PJ@cEQS+ R@?AEJIE?cER _@QP@UKeQRTXS+H X>?@ATXS+PJ@QLeEUG+A 4AJ@PQRT+S?VV"+

#?VF@AK?G+V?kZHcE+CE+ABQZEUREX+@Y?@A@AK?G+FKU@ScGc_+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRBc_+PJ@P@JcG+P@U+AZVAEX+QLHYVlZV\Hf?Gc_+_@QP@UKeQRBc_+P@ZVLVR+H PJ@CEAEX+ABA@CE+?KRZHU@ABc_+kHRL@JW"+%EQLJVRLVA?G+X>?@AK+P@ZVLVRHgP@UP@eE?K+P@+JEHZV\HcV+UJS_T_@+AZKU?G_@+YHZGfRS+\ P@Z@AV?M+J@RS+*[[<+V kVQRKZ?G+P@ZVLVR@Sg+H ABJH\?T\YJ\U>?G+UZ@S_@U@Y>+?ESUJFVLEZ?T_@+JWQLS+XE\U+PWQ@YVZM+?H+SLZSXE?G+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM"+(H+AMRH\SCE@U+N"+fLAJLZELG+*[[<+U@+Q@SfHQ?T+U@YM+P@RZEQ+AqEc_+QABc_+QZ@FER"+%@QLZHlZV+U@XKcG+P@PLKARH+A *"+fLAJLlZELG+ *[[<+XE\VJ@f?>+ LEXPEX+`gN+sg+PHR+A *"+ fLAJLZELG+ J@RS+*[[d+RZEQZH+@ Ng*+s+ wYE\E+\X>?M+ QLHAS\KQ@Yx"+&ECAB\?HX?>CqG+QZ@FRH+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMg+Q@SRJ@XK+QP@LeEYH+U@XKc?@QLGg+RZEQZH+@ *gb+sg+H L@PeEUEAqGX+A UWQZEURS+P@RZEQS+JEKZ?Bc_+PeGCXW+\ XE\U+w\AZKqL>+A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+Q JEISZHcG+XE\U+AE+AEeECl?TX+QERL@JSx+H LHRT+A UWQZEURS+UWc_@U@AT_@+EkERLS+JWQLS+?>RLEJBc_+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+\ P@fKLRS+J@RS"%EKZ?B+P@RZEQ+\H\?HXE?HZM+AZKU?G+ABUHCE+V ABUHCE+?H+V?AEQLVcE+A UWQZEURS+ABUHC@ABc_+qRJLW+H @YE\eELl?T_@+c_@AK?G+R@XEJf?Gc_+YH?R+PeV+P@QRML@AK?G+^A>JW+P@U?VR@AT+QkTeE"+6PeGQ?>?G+_@QP@UKeQRBc_+P@ZVlLVR+PeVQP>Z@+RE+\P@XHZE?G+_@QP@UKeQRT_@+JWQLS"+, *"+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+U@qZ@g+UZE+@U_HUS+:#Og+R P@RZEQS$9D+@ ]g[+s"+D@Q@S\E?G+_Z@SYRM+_@QP@UKeQRT+QLHI?HcE+AqHR+YSUE+X@F?T+LEPJAE+?H+\KRZHU>+UEkV?VLVAl?Gc_+^UHCW"+,BA@C+$9D+CE+UWQZEUREX+?E\YML?T+R@JERcE+XV?SZT_@+?ESUJFVLEZ?T_@+ABA@CE"+

D@U+ AZVAEX+ JEQLJVRcE+U@XKcG+ P@PLKARM+P@RJHf@AHZ@+@Y?@A@AK?G+ A?>CqG+ J@A?@AK_Mg+ RLEJT+ QE+ PJ@CEAVZ@A UHZqGX+ P@RZEQS+ P@X>JS+ UEkVcVLS+ Y>F?T_@+ ^fLS+ R $9D"+ DeVQP>Z+ R L@XS+ \ECXT?H+ ABA@C+ @Yc_@U?GYVZH?cEg+ CECGF+UEkVcVL+ A *"+P@Z@ZELG+*[[d+P@RZEQZ+ \_JSYH+?H+P@Z@AV?S+AE+ QJ@A?K?G+ QE+ QLEC?BX+@YU@YGXJ@RS+ *[[<"+ 8 PeG\?VATXS+ ABA@CV+ @Yc_@U?G+ YVZH?cE+ U@c_K\EZ@+ V PeEQL@g+ FE+ \PEAtSCGcG+ UEAV\@AB+ RSJ\P@QLSP?>+\ZEAt@AHZ+U@A@\M"+

D@RJHfSCGcG+PJ@cEQ+UEQV?kZHcE+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+P@UP@eE?+XVX@eKU?>+PeG\?VABX+ABA@CEX+A>LqV?M+?KRZHlU@ABc_+ kHRL@JWg+ \ ?Vc_F+?>RLEJT+ CE+X@F?@+P@AHF@AHL+ \H+ JM\E+ Er@IE??G"+&KRZHU@A>+PeG\?VAT+U@PHUMYMZM+QPCHLM+Q ABA@CEX+QX>??T_@+RSJ\Sg+Q ABA@CEX+cE?+R@X@UVL+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_g+Q ABA@CEX+JEZHcEXE\V+JWQLEX+XE\U+H JWQLEX+PJ@USRLVAVLM+V Q ABA@CEX+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW"+D@\A@Z?T+P@QVZ@AK?G?@XV?KZ?G_@+RSJ\S+R@JS?M+AWfV+?>XEcRT+XHJcE+YMZ@+V PeEQ+UGZfG+RJKLR@U@YT+kZSRLSHcE+c_HJHRLEJVQLVcRTPJ@+cEZT+PJA?G+P@Z@ZELG+*[[d"+6_@U?@c@AK?G+RSJ\S+AMR@?KAHZ@+QVZ?B+LZHR+?H+XVRJ@ER@?@XVcR@S+JEQLJSRlLSJHZV\HcV+H HUHPLHcV"+(HRT+JEKZ?B+UEAV\@AB+RSJ\+AE+QZEU@AH?TX+@YU@YG+P@X>J?>+JMc_ZE+HPJEcV@AHZ"+DeVUEkZ@AK?G+V?UErEX+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+PeERJ@fVZ+JEKZ?B+RSJ\+R@JS?M+QA@CV+^J@AEt+\ ^?@JH+*[[<+\HfKLlREX+J@RS+*[[d"+3E?M+R@X@UVL+?H+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+X>eE?T+cE?@ABX+V?UErEX+$vv2+P@RZEQZM+A *"P@Z@ZELG+ *[[d+ AE+ QJ@A?K?G+ QE+ QLEC?BX+ @YU@YGX+ PeEUc_@\G_@+ J@RS+ @ N]g*+ s"+ &EC_ZSYqG+ P@RZEQw@ N<g* sx+\H\?HXE?HZM+cE?M+E?EJIELVcRBc_+QSJ@AV?"+DeG\?VA@S+@R@Z?@QLG+YMZ+V ?G\RB+JWQL+cE?+P@LJHAV?"+

%WQL+ ?KRZHU@AT+ V?kZHcE+YMZ+ PeG\?VA>+@AZVA?>?+ J@A?>F+ ABA@CEX+XE\Ug+ c@F+ QE+ PJ@XGLHZ@+ U@+ QYZVF@AK?GLEXP+ JWQLS+ CEU?@LR@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+ ?KRZHUW+ H UEkZKL@JS+$9Dg+ CHR@F+ V U@+ SUJF@AK?G+ PeEUQLV_S+ JWQLSPJ@USRLVAVLM+PeEU+JWQLEX+XE\U"+DeG\?VAB+ABA@C+AqEc_+SAEUE?Bc_+kHRL@JW+QE+@UJH\VZ+AE+\P@XHZE?G+XE\VlX>QGf?Gc_+PeGJWQLRW+cE?+ABJ@YcWg+RLEJT+CQ@S+CEU?GX+\ ?KRZHU@ABc_+kHRL@JW+V?UErS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?"6HLGXc@+V?UEr+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+J@QLZ+A USY?S+H A RA>L?S+LEXPEX+]g*+sg+A fEJA?S+@ ]g*+sP@RZEQZ"+=E\VJ@f?G+JWQL+V?UErS+cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+P@RZEQZ+\ bgb+s+A ^?@JS+?H+`gb+s+A fEJA?S"8 SAEUE?TXS+ABA@CV+XE\U+H cE?+PJWXMQZ@ABc_+ABJ@YcW+U@c_K\G+P@U+AZVAEX+SPZHL?>?Bc_+JEQLJVRLVA?Gc_XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRBc_+P@ZVLVR+H A UWQZEURS+PeG\?VABc_+Er@IE??Gc_+kHRL@JW"+

5*

Page 36: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'/(\(.)@>[email protected];CDE.LC=797PF

OJ@R@AK+ P@ZVLVRH+ :&n+ AMc_K\EZH+ \ P@UXG?>?T+ PJ@I?m\M+ V?kZHcEg+ CECGF+ fHQ@AB+ _@JV\@?L+ QE+ P@QLSP?>P@Q@SAHZ+\H+R@?Ec+J@RS+*[[d"+:&n+Y>_EX+N"+fLAJLZELG+?EX>?VZH+?HQLHAE?G+QABc_+\KRZHU?Gc_+^J@R@ABc_QH\EY"+&ECUWZEFVL>CqG+QH\YH+:&n+N(+QH\YH+PJ@+JEP@+@PEJHcE+YMZH+SUJF@AK?H+?H+^J@A?V+*`+s+H @U+LTL@QH\YM+QE+@UAGCEZM+V @QLHL?G+QH\YM+PE?>F?G_@+LJ_S"+6HLGXc@+A *"+fLAJLZELG+YMZM+XE\VJ@f?G+_@U?@LM+cE?@ABc_V?UErW+AMQ@RTg+A PJA?Gc_+UA@S+X>QGcGc_+N" fLAJLZELG+QVcE+XE\VJ@f?G+V?kZHcE+?VCHR+ABJH\?>+?ERZEQHZHg+HZEPJ@I?m\M+:&n+QLKZE+PeEQA>UfVA>CV+?H\?Hf@AHZM+?KQLSP+LJE?US+CECG_@+ABJH\?T_@+Q?VF@AK?G+P@fG?HCE+fEJAl?EX"+&G\RT+XE\VX>QGf?G+PeGJWQLRM+fVQLT+ V cEZR@AT+ V?kZHcE+AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ A R@?LErLS+SPZHL?>?T+X>?@ATP@ZVLVRM+P@QLSP?>+\AMq@AHZM+CECG+RJEUVYVZVLS+V PJHAU>P@U@Y?@QL+QPZ?>?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+A J@cE+*[[d"+

(E?L@+ ABA@C+ QE+ @UJH\VZ+ A V?kZHf?Gc_+ @fERKAK?Gc_g+ fEXSF+ ?HQA>Uf@AHZH+ V QVLSHcE+ ?H+ PE?>F?GX+ LJ_S",BA@C+QLeEU?>U@YBc_+H UZ@S_@U@YBc_+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+PE?>F?G_@+LJ_S+AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+YMZ+c_HJHRLEJV\@lAK?+P@\A@Z?BX+P@RZEQEX"+(E?L@+LJE?U+YMZ+PeEJSqE?+RJKLR@U@YBX+A\EQLSPEX+QH\EY+AE+UJS_T+P@Z@AV?>RA>L?H+H \HfKLREX+fEJA?H+A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+ Q ABA@CEX+?H+JSQRTX+kV?H?f?GX+LJ_S"+8 @P>L@A?TXS+P@RZEQSQH\EY+AE UJS_T+P@Z@AV?>+fEJA?H+U@qZ@+PeEUEAqGX+?H+UZ@S_TX+R@?cV+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARMg+c@F+?H\?Hf@AHZ@QLHYVZV\HcV+ QVLSHcE+ ?H+ PE?>F?GX+ LJ_S+ H P@QVZ@AK?G+ UEQV?kZHf?Gc_+ @fERKAK?G"+. k@JX@AK?G+ P@\VLVA?Gc_V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G+RE+R@?cV+N" fLAJLZELG+ QA>UfVZ+ABA@C+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H+0%2+ V QH\EY+ !%#"+6AZKqL>S AB?@Q@AT+ReVARM+!%#+YMZ+PHLJ?B+P@QS?+?H+?VFqG+AB?@Q@A@S+_ZHUV?S+H \ABJH\t@AK?G+CECG_@+V?AEJ\?G_@QRZ@?S+A UWQZEURS+JMc_ZECqG_@+P@RZEQS+QH\EY+Q UEZqG+QPZHL?@QLG"+

DeEQL@g+FE+U@c_K\EZ@+R P@QLSP?TXS+@QZHY@AK?G+V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRWg+:&n+RE+Q?GFE?G+QABc_+\KRZHU?Gc_+^J@lR@ABc_+QH\EY+AE+UJS_TX+fLAJLZELG+?EPeVRJ@fVZH"+$ZHA?GX+UWA@UEX+PJ@+P@?Ec_K?G+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+?H?E\X>?>?T+^J@A?V+YMZ@+U@QSU+RJKLRT+@YU@YG+P@X>J?>+PeG\?VAT_@+UEQV?kZHf?G_@+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRT_@ABA@CE+ H CE?+ P@\A@Z?T+ @UE\?GAK?G+ \XG?>?Bc_+ ?ECVQL@L+ UEQV?kZHf?G_@+ PJ@cEQS+ A YSU@Sc?S"+ &HAGc?K\?HRM+ P@\VLVA?G_@+ ABA@CE+ A @YZHQLV+ V?kZHcE+ QE+ PJ@CEA@AHZM+ A QVLSHcVg+ RUM+ cE?@AB+ JWQL+ X>eE?B*N X>QGf?GXV+ RZ@S\HABXV+ cE?@ABXV+ V?UErM+ U@QH_@AHZ+ ?ECAMqqG+ _ZHUV?M+ \H+ P@QZEU?Gc_+ `+ ZEL"+ :&n+ QVYMZH+J@A?>F+A>U@XH+L@_@g+FE+\HP@fHLB+UEQV?kZHf?G+PJ@cEQ+YMZ+fKQLEf?>+ABQZEUREX+XVX@eKU?>+PeG\?VlAT_@+PWQ@YE?G+Er@IE??Gc_+kHRL@JW"+%V\VRH+\?@ASP@QGZE?G+?>RLEJBc_+?EIHLVA?Gc_+kHRL@JW+QLKZE+AE+QZEU@lAH?TX+@YU@YG+ErVQL@AHZH"+DHLeVZ@+R ?VX+X@F?T+@FVAE?G+X\U@ABc_+LZHRW+A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+Q J@\UGZ?@S+UM?HlXVR@S+XE\U+AE+AEeEC?TX+H Q@SRJ@XTX+QERL@JSg+?EYE\PEfG+@Y?@AE?G+A?>CqG+?EJ@A?@AK_M+?EY@+ABA@CkVQRKZ?G+@YZHQLVg+RLEJK+ QVI?HZV\@AHZH+?EYE\PEfG+A\?VRS+P@X>J?>+\?Hf?Bc_+UEkVcVLW"+ ! RUMF+?>RLEJT+ LML@?ECVQL@LM+A fEJA?S+P@?>RSU+SQL@SPVZMg+_ZHA?G+P@\@J?@QL+YMZH+\HX>eE?H+?H+?EIHLVA?G+U@PHUM+QVLSHcE+?HQA>L@ABc_+kV?H?f?Gc_+LJ\Gc_g+RLEJK+XK+PeV+AEZRT+kV?H?f?G+@LEAeE?@QLV+fEQRT+ER@?@XVRM+\?Hf?B+AB\?HX":&n+ LHR+X@_ZH+RE+ Q?VF@AK?G+^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+PeVRJ@fVL+ HF+A U@Y>g+RUM+ QE+UEQV?kZHf?G+PJ@cEQ+SRK\HZCHR@+JEKZ?>+SUJFVLEZ?B+H QUGZE?B+A>LqV?@S+LJF?Gc_+HRLTJW+H QPZ?>?G+QLH?@AE?T_@+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+PJ@+J@R*[[d+CHR@+AEZXV+PJHAU>P@U@Y?T[y"+DeEUfHQ?T+Q?GFE?G+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+YM+YMZ@+QPCHL@+Q JV\VREX+@QZHlYE?G+RJEUVYVZVLM+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM+H \?@ASP@QGZE?G+V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G"+

&EQLHYVZ?G+ABA@C+?H+LJ\Gc_+A %SQRS+H ?ECVQL@LM+QP@CE?T+Q PeEUA@ZEY?GX+@YU@YGX+YMZM+_ZHA?GXV+kHRL@JMPWQ@YGcGXV+ AE+N"+ fLAJLZELG+ ?H+ P@X>J?>+ \?Hf?T+ RJKLR@U@YT+ ABRMAM+ RSJ\S+ R@JS?M"+:&n+AQLSP@AHZH+ ?HUEAV\@AB+ LJ_+ ?VR@ZVA+ \H+ ^fEZEX+ SUJF@AK?G+ RSJ\S+ ?H+ SJfVLT+ _ZHUV?>+ fV+ @AZVAt@AK?G+ CE_@+ LJE?U@AT_@ABA@CEg+ HZE+ Q cGZEX+ LZSXVL+ ?KQZEURM+ Er@IE??Gc_+ AZVAW+ H P@X@cG+ UEAV\@ABc_+ V?LEJAE?cG+ SX@F?VLP@X>J?>+_ZHURT+PeEQS?M+@Yc_@U@AK?G+?H+UEAV\@ATX+LJ_S+XE\V+JW\?BXV+RSJ\@ABXV+^J@A?>XV"+

'/(`(.2>P9CIF.MBGCB?J.7;<=>?@

,E+QJ@A?K?G+Q *"+fLAJLZELGX+*[[dg+RUM+PeELJAKAHZM+\?Hf?T+?ECVQL@LM+@_ZEU?>+YSU@ScG_@+XHRJ@ER@?@XVclRT_@+ABA@CE+H PWQ@YE?G+ V?kZHf?Gc_+ LZHRWg+U@qZ@+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELG+RE+\ZEPqE?G+ QVLSHcE+H AMLA@eE?GPeG\?VAT_@+PJ@QLeEUG+PJ@+Q?VF@AK?G+V?kZHcE+AE+UJS_TX+P@Z@ZELG"+

5N

[y+:&n+PeVQL@SPVZH+RE+Q?GFE?G+N(+ZVXVL?G+JEP@+QH\YM+@ ]g`+PJ@cE?L?G_@+Y@US+?H+*ag`+s+Q PZHL?@QLG+@U+*<"+fEJAE?cE+*[[d"+

Page 37: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

(JE?U+HYQ@ZSL?G_@+P@RZEQS+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+\HP@fHLB+AE+5"+fLAJLZELG+*[[<+Q AEZR@S+PJHAU>P@U@Y?@QLGP@RJHf@AHZ+V AE+N"+fLAJLZELG+J@RS+*[[d"+,E+N"+P@Z@ZELG+J@RS+*[[d+:&n+@fERKAK+QLHI?HcVg+P@Pe"+CE?+XGJ?T@FVAE?G+U@XKcG+P@PLKARMg+c@F+YM+?EX>Z@+@_J@F@AHL+cE?@AB+ABA@C+A ?ECYZVFqGc_+X>QGcGc_+H H?V+A UEZlqGX+fHQ@ATX+_@JV\@?LS"+#@SfHQ?B+ABA@C+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+AMLAKeG+PeG\?VAT+P@UXG?RM+PJ@+P@RJHf@AK?GUEQV?kZHf?G_@+PJ@cEQS+A J@cE+*[[["+

6P@XHZE?G+ER@?@XVcRT_@+JWQLS+H LZHRM+?H+PJ@AKU>?G+JEQLJSRLSJHZV\HcE+H \ABqE?G+R@?RSJE?cEQc_@P?@QLVA P@U?VR@AT+ QkTeEg+ AMA@ZH?T+ X>?@A@S+ H kVQRKZ?G+ P@ZVLVR@Sg+ HZE+ LHRT+ ABA@CEX+ YH?R@A?G_@+ QERL@JSgP@\A@Z?H+AEU@S+R JWQLS+?E\HX>QL?H?@QLV"+(GX+QE+@XE\SCE+PJ@QL@J+PJ@+?EPeVX>eE?B+JWQL+XE\U"+

,MQ@RB+P@UGZ+ JV\VR@ABc_+^A>JW+H ?SL?@QL+ LA@JYM+ JE\EJA+R CECVc_+RJMLG+ QE+@UJKFECG+ A @YE\eEL?>CqGX+PeGlQLSPS+ YH?R+ R P@QRML@AK?G+ ^A>JW+ H A JWQLS+ CECVc_+ \KCXS+@ AMQ@cE+ Y@?VL?G+ HRLVAHg+ CHR@+ CQ@S+ ?HPeGRZHUV?AEQLVcE+U@+QLKL?Gc_+cE??Bc_+PHPGJW"+(@+QP@ZS+Q ?G\RBX+@YCEXEX+AZHQL?Gc_+\UJ@CW+P@U?VRWg+?EABJH\l?BX+ PeGZVAEX+ PeGXBc_+ \H_JH?Vf?Gc_+ V?AEQLVcg+ Q?VFSCGcGXV+ QE+ @fERKAK?GXV+ @ _@QP@UKeQRTX+ JWQLSH ?HUKZE+ @XE\E?BXV+X@F?@QLXV+ fEJPHL+ \UJ@CE+ ?H+ RHPVLKZ@ATX+ LJ_S+ UEQLVXSZ@AHZ@+ JWQL+ Q@SRJ@XBc_V?AEQLVc"+:&n+@fERKAKg+FE+P@PLKARH+P@+V?AEQLVcGc_+YSUE+?HUKZE+?G\RKg+c@F+YSUE+P@UAH\@AHL+V?kZHf?GLZHRM+AE+QkTeE+V?AEQLVf?Gc_+QLHLRW"

'LZSXE?K+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARH+ YSUE+ A UHZqGX+ @YU@YG+ @XE\@AHL+ PJ@QL@J+ PJ@+ PJ@QH\@AK?G+ ?KRZHU@ABc_V?kZHf?Gc_+ VXPSZQW+ H ?EIHLVA?Gc_+ V?kZHf?Gc_+ @fERKAK?G"+9@QHAHU?G+ ABA@C+ A>LqV?M+ ?KRZHU@ABc_+ V?kZHfl?Gc_+ kHRL@JW+ YMZ+ XVX@eKU?>+ PeG\?VAB+ H ?E?G+ PJHAU>P@U@Y?Tg+ FE+ YM+ A PeGqLGc_+ X>QGcGc_+ X>Z@+ U@CGLR \KQHU?GXS+@YJHLS+A LTL@+@YZHQLV"+,BA@C+cE?+R@X@UVL+?H+ QA>L@ABc_+ LJ\Gc_+?E?H\?HfSCE+ JV\VR@+cE?@lABc_+q@RW+A YZG\RT+YSU@Sc?@QLV"+,ZVA+JWQLS+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+YSUE+Q P@QLSPEX+fHQS+QZKY?@SL+H CE+PJHAlU>P@U@Y?Tg+ FE+ \AMq@AK?G+ JEISZ@AH?Bc_+ cE?+ QE+ A PeGqLGX+ J@cE+ \P@XHZG"+,BA@C+ A XVRJ@QkTeE+ ?EQA>UfG@ @YJHLS+QLKAHCGcG_@+LJE?US+PeEUQLV_S+JWQLS+PJ@USRLVAVLM+PeEU+JWQLEX+XE\Ug+H?V+U@_K?>?G+ LEXPH+JWQLSUEkZKL@JS+$9D+LEXPEX+JWQLS+CEU?@LR@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+?KRZHUW"+

DJ@cEQ+UEQV?kZHcE+AE+UJS_TX+fLAJLZELG+*[[d+AqHR+?EAEUZ+R @UQLJH?>?G+JV\VR+X@F?Bc_+V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRWg+HZEP@S\E+R CECVc_+P@LZHfE?G"+%V\VR@ABX+kHRL@JEX+PWQ@YGcGX+?H+cE?@AB+ABA@C+A RJKLRTX+?>R@ZVRHX>QGf?GXfHQ@ATX+_@JV\@?LS+CE+ABA@C+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S"+1\E+QVcE+PeEUP@RZKUHLg+FE+X@F?B+RSJ\@AB+V?kZHf?G+LZHRYM+YMZ+ LZSXE?+?G\R@S+U@XKcG+P@PLKAR@Sg+?VcXT?>+\?Hf?T+P@QS?M+QX>??T_@+RSJ\S+A UWQZEURS+Er@lIE??Gc_+kHRL@JW+YM+CHR@+\eECX>+CEUV?B+kHRL@J+X@_ZM+R@XPZVR@AHL+U@QHFE?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+RE+R@?cV+J@RS*[[d"+, UEZqGX+fHQ@ATX+_@JV\@?LS+?EZ\E+AMZ@SfVL+@QZHYE?G+RSJ\S+P@U+AZVAEX+ABA@CE+kS?UHXE?LKZ?Gc_AEZVfV?"+8 L@XS+YM+X@_Z@+U@CGL+A Q@SAVQZ@QLV+Q @P>L@A?BX+?HJWQLK?GX+A?>CqG+?EJ@A?@AK_M+A UWQZEURSX@F?T_@+ @FVAE?G+ U@XKcG+ P@PLKARMg+ RUMF+ YM+ L@L@+ @FVAE?G+ ?EYMZ@+ R@?QVQLE?L?G+ Q U@QHFE?@S+ ^J@A?GJEQLJSRLSJHZV\HcE+ H JWQLEX+ R@?RSJE?cEQc_@P?@QLV+ P@U?VR@AT+ QkTJM"+ #LeEU?>U@Y>+ JV\VR@ABX+ kHRL@JEXH Q @_ZEUEX+?H+AK_S+XE\U+A ?@A>+AMLA@eE?T+_@U?@L>"+=@F?T+LZHRM+?H+JWQL+XE\U+Z\E+@fERKAHL+AE+QLKLl?GX+QERL@JSg+RUE+YMZ+A SPZM?SZTX+@YU@YG+X\U@AB+JWQL+AE+QJ@A?K?G+QE+Q@SRJ@XBX+QERL@JEX+SLZSXE?"9HZqGX+JV\VREX+CE+PeGPHU?K+LE?UE?cE+R UEkVcVL?@QLV+J@\P@fL@AT_@+_@QP@UHeE?G+AE+UJS_T+P@Z@AV?>+J@RSg\ECXT?H+A PeGPHU>+\P@XHZE?G+_@QP@UKeQRT_@+JWQLS"+9Z@S_@U@Y>CqG+U@PHU+?H+V?kZHcV+YM+X@_Z@+XGL+\AMlq@AK?G+ QLKL?Gc_+ ABUHCWg+ V RUMF+ cEZR@AB+ J@\QH_+ kVQRKZ?G+ PEJXVQE+ YSUE+ P@X>J?>+ \?Hf?>+ @XE\E?+XHHlQLJVc_LQRBX+RJVLTJVEXg+R ?>XSF+QE+AZKUH+PeV_ZHqSCE"+/E+L@LVF+PJHAU>P@U@Y?Tg+FE+LE?L@+ABA@C+YM+X@_Z+QLVlXSZ@AHL+XVX@+CV?T+V @P>L@A?T+?ESUJFVLEZ?T+\_@Jq@AK?G+@Yc_@U?G+YVZH?cE"+#A@CV+J@ZV+YM+X@_Z@+QE_JKL+L@gFE+cE?M+\EX>U>ZQRBc_+PJA@ABJ@YcW+A SPZM?SZTX+@YU@YG+J@QLZM+AE+QJ@A?K?G+Q cE?HXV+P@LJHAV?+JEZHLVA?>P@XHZECV"+,BJH\?>CqG+HRcEZEJHcE+JWQLS+cE?+\EX>U>ZQRBc_+PJA@ABJ@YcW+YM+QE+Q SJfVLBX+fHQ@ABX+@UQLSlPEX+PJ@CEAVZH+A JWQLS+cE?+P@LJHAV?"+

!?kZHf?G+@fERKAK?G+CQ@S+A Q@SfHQ?T+U@Y>+PeG\?VA>+@AZVAt@AK?H+U@QHAHU?GX+ABA@CEX+V?kZHcE"+,\_ZEUEXR P@RJHf@AK?G+ UEQV?kZHf?G_@+ PJ@cEQS+:&n+ PeEUP@RZKUK+ UHZqG+ P@QVZ@AK?G+ RJEUVYVZVLM+ QLJHLEIVE+ cGZ@AK?GV?kZHcE"+,B\?HX?BX+VXPSZQEX+PJ@+UWA>JM_@U?@QL+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM+:&n+YM+QE+X>Z@+QLKL+QPZ?>?G+V?kZHfl?G_@+cGZE+A J@cE+*[[d"+

55

Page 38: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

'/(b(.ZICA;ka>.7;<=>?@.

DJ@I?m\H+V?kZHcE+QE+@UAGCG+@U+?>R@ZVRH+\KRZHU?Gc_+ABc_@UVQER"+/Q@S+CVXV+\P@XHZE?G+LEXPH+JWQLS+QP@LeEYVlLEZQRBc_+cE?+H fVQLT+V?kZHcE+A PJWY>_S+N"+fLAJLZELGg+PeG\?VAB+Q@SfHQ?B+ABA@C+P@PLKAR@ABc_+kHRL@JWg+LC"+kHRlL@JWg+ RLEJT+ \PJHAVUZH+ PWQ@YG+ Q UEZqGX+ fHQ@ABX+ @UQLSPEXg+ AB_ZEU+ ABA@CE+ ?KRZHU@ABc_+ kHRL@JW+ V?kZHcEPWQ@YGcGc_+Q RJHLqGX+\P@FU>?GX+H P@QLSP?T+@QZHY@AK?G+JV\VR+PeGPHU?T_@+@FVAE?G+V?kZHcE"+:&n+@fERKAKgFE+fVQLK+V?kZHcE+QE+YSUE+?H+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[d+P@_MY@AHL+?HU+U@Z?G+XE\G+cGZ@AT_@+J@\P>LG+`g`+s+l+bg`+s"(E?L@+ABA@C+@UP@AGUK+PeEUQLHA>+:&n+H U@RZKUKg+FE+?HQLHAE?G+PHJHXELJW+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM+CE+R@?QVQLE?L?GQ CECG+QLeEU?>U@Y@S+UEQV?kZHf?G+QLJHLEIVG"+#RSLEf?@QLg+FE+QE+@U_HU+V?kZHcE+RE+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[d+P@_MYSCEP@U+QLeEU?G+_@U?@L@S+J@\P>LGg+@UP@AGUK+PeG\?VA>CqGXS+?EF+@fERKAH?TXS+ABA@CV+UEAV\@AT_@+RSJ\S+H J@Al?>F+ABA@CV+cE?+QSJ@AV?+?H+ QA>L@ABc_+ LJ\Gc_"+:KQL+UEQV?kZHf?G_@+PJ@cEQS+ CE+ABQZEUREX+Er@IE??Gc_+ kHRlL@JWg+LC"+kHRL@JW+XVX@+U@QH_+_@QP@UKeQRT+H X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRMg+CECVc_F+PeELJAK?G+?EZ\E+\HCVQLVL"+8 @_J@FE?GQPZ?>?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+XWFE+LHR+U@CGL+P@S\E+A PeGPHU>+Er@IE??Gc_+q@RW+\?Hf?T_@+J@\QH_S"

(>FVqL>+UEQV?kZHf?G+QLJHLEIVE+:&n+A JKXcV+JEFVXS+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE?G+CE+PJ@L@+PeEQS?SL@+R \HCVqL>?G+P@QLSPl?T_@+PeVYZVF@AK?G+RE+QLeEU?>U@YTXS+cGZV+PJ@+J@R+N]]]"+,\_ZEUEX+R ?HQLHAE?BX+P@UXG?RKX+:&n+@fElRKAKg+FE+A J@cE+*[[[+fVQLK+ V?kZHcE+P@RZEQ?E+?H+^J@AEtg+RLEJK+YSUE+ LA@eVL+PZM?SZB+PeEc_@U+RE+QPZ?>?GQLeEU?>U@YT_@+ V?kZHf?G_@+ cGZE+ A J@cE+ N]]]+ A J@\XE\G+ 5g`+s+ l+ `g`+s"+ DeV+ J@\_@U@AK?G+ @ ?HQLHAE?GX>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM+PJ@+UHZqG+@YU@YG+YSUE+PeVL@X+:&n+AMc_K\EL+\ L@_@g+U@+ CHRT+XGJM+ QE+YSU@S+AMAGCELSAEUE?T+JV\VR@AT+kHRL@JM+H YSUE+R@XPE?\@AHL+X@F?T+V?kZHf?G+QLVXSZM"

:&n+PJ@I?m\SCE+Q?GFE?G+V?UErS+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+R@?cEX+J@RS+*[[d+?H+^J@AEt+R@?cE+J@RS+*[[<H P@RZEQ+?H+CEU?@cVkEJ?@S+_@U?@LS+A PJA?Gc_+X>QGcGc_+J@RS+*[[["+9HZqG+Q?VF@AK?G+LEXPH+JWQLS+QP@LeElYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+YSUE+P@UXG?>?@+J@\QH_EX+H LEXPEX+YSU@ScG_@+\AMq@AK?G+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?"+

5a

Page 39: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

QRQ*$WU.Q 15T*R*-."$*S!/*-.)$TU.6*"

Q:a;>H.a Y@G;:;J.">;PCD;J.I>GF.6*".G;@.`l(.b(.Vmmn

nH?R@A?G+JHUH+_@U?@LVZH+ABA@C+ER@?@XVcRT+H X>?@AT+QVLSHcE+\ _ZEUVQRH+kHRL@JWg+CECVc_F+ABA@C+YM+X@_ZX@LVA@AHL+ ^AH_M+ @ YSU@ScG+ \X>?>+ wSA@Z?>?Gx+X>?@AT+ P@ZVLVRM"+ 6KRZHUEX+ L>c_L@+ ^AH_+ CQ@S+ ?>RLEJT^UHCE+ @ HRLSKZ?G+ QVLSHcV|+ ?G\RK+ _@U?@LH+ P@QZEU?G+XE\VX>QGf?G+ \X>?M+ QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+ cE?+ H V?UErSfVQLT+ V?kZHcEg+ LJAHZT+ \ZEPq@AK?G+ H?SHZV\@AH?T_@+ QHZUH+ @Yc_@U?G+ YVZH?cE+ H Y>F?T_@+^fLSg+ \PEAt@AK?G?@XV?KZ?G_@+RSJ\S+R@JS?Mg+\ZEPq@AK?G+JEZHcE+XE\V+ABA@CEX+PJ@USRLVAVLM+H XE\U"+&EYMZ@+@P@XE?SL@H?V+P@X>J?>+PeG\?VAT+_@U?@cE?G+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRT+QVLSHcE+\E+QLJH?M+XVQE+==0"+

&H+UJS_T+QLJH?>+YMZM+A UVQRSQV+PeVP@XE?SLM+kHRL@JMg+RLEJT+CEU?HR+R@JVISCG+?>RLEJK+@PLVcRM+PeG\?VAK+UHLHH CEU?HR+l+QLEC?>+CHR@+A SPZM?SZBc_+X>QGcGc_+l+PeEUQLHASCG+P@LE?cVKZ?G+JV\VR@+PJ@+X>?@AB+ABA@C"+#?GFE?GXE\VX>QGf?G+UM?HXVRM+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+YMZ@+_@U?@cE?@+CHR@+PJA?G+QVI?KZ+\ZEPqE?G+ABA@CE+V?kZHcEgRLEJB+YMZ+@AqEX+U@PJ@AK\E?+P@UQLHL?>+AMqqG+UM?HXVR@S+JWQLS+QE\m??>+@fVqL>?Bc_+_@U?@L+w�+]gax"+%WQLQP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+LZSXG+A Q@SfHQ?T+U@Y>+X@XE?LKZ?G+PeG\?VAK+QVLSHcE+AE+ABA@CV+QA>L@ABc_+cE?+QSJ@lAV?"+6H+CVQLT+JV\VR@+PJ@+YSU@ScG+ABA@C+QP@LeEYVLEZQRBc_+cE?+Z\E+P@AHF@AHL+A\EQLSP+cE?+\EX>U>ZQRT+PJ@lUSRcE"

nH?R@A?G+JHUH+P@AHFSCE+V ?HUKZE+\H+_ZHA?G+?EYE\PEfG+PJ@+U@QHFE?G+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRT+QLHYVZVLM+QVLSHcVAE+X\U@AT+@YZHQLVg+PeEUEAqGX+J@\UGZ?B+ABA@C+XE\U+AE+QLKL?G+H Q@SRJ@XT+QkTeE"+8@?QLHL@AHZHg+FE+UGZfG^UHCE+@ SLZSXE?G+UM?HXVRM+X\U@AT_@+JWQLS+?ECQ@S+U@QSU+?HL@ZVR+PeEQA>UfVATg+HYM+w\AZKqL>+A R@?LErLSHAV\@AK?G+?@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+P@FHUHARWx+AMZ@SfVZM+X@F?@QL+JEcVUVAM+QVZ?Bc_+P@PLKAR@ABc_+LZHRW"+%WQLCEU?@LR@ABc_+X\U@ABc_+?KRZHUW+P@UAH\SCE+YSU@ScG+R@?RSJE?cEQc_@P?@QL+fEQRT+PJ@USRcE+H AMLAKeGLHR+V JV\VRH+PJ@+ABA@C+X>?@AT_@+RSJ\S"

=GJ?B+ P@RZEQ+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ CE+ QP@CE?+ Q P@RJHfSCGcGX+ SRZVUt@AK?GX+ QVLSHcE+ ?H+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_gRLEJK+Q@SAVQG+Q ?>RLEJBXV+PeG\?VABXV+\PJKAHXV+@ ABA@CV+ER@?@XVRM+H AEUE+LHR+R P@RZEQS+JV\VR@ABc_+PJTlXVG"+3EZR@A>+YMZ+\HQLKAK?+?K\@Jg+FE+P@\VLVA?G+LE?UE?cE+X@_@S+XGL+CE?+RJKLR@U@YB+c_HJHRLEJg+\HLGXc@P@LE?cV@?KZ?G+ JV\VRH+ CQ@S+ QPGqE+ QMQLTX@AT_@+ c_HJHRLEJS+ PJ@CEASCGcG+ QE+ AE+ QLeEU?>U@YTX+ _@JV\@?LS"# PeV_ZTU?SLGX+R ABqE+SAEUE?BX+UWA@UWX+YH?R@A?G+JHUH+J@\_@UZH+P@?Ec_HL+?HQLHAE?G+Q@SfHQ?T+ABqE^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+YE\E+\X>?M"+

5`

Page 40: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

Q:a;>H.a Y@G;:;J.">;PCD;J.I>GF.6*".G;@.\n(.c(.Vmmn

&H+ QATX+ \HQEUK?G+ U?E+ Nd"+ `"+ *[[d+ nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+ :&n+ AM_@U?@LVZH+ kHRL@JM+ k@JXSCGcG+ RJKLR@U@YBH QLeEU?>U@YB+ V?kZHf?G+ ABA@C"+ 6H+ \KRZHU?G+ P@\VLVA?G+ V?k@JXHcV+ YMZ@+ @\?HfE?@+ P@RJHfSCGcG+ \XGJ?>?GUM?HXVRM+cE?@AT_@+ABA@CE"+, UVQRSQV+YMZ@+P@SRK\K?@+?H+L@g+FE+LE?L@+P@\VLVA?G+ABA@C+YMZ+RJKLR@U@Y>P@UXG?>?+XVX@eKU?>+U@YJBXV+P@UXG?RHXV+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_+QSJ@AV?+H ?H+UEAV\@ATX+LJ_S"+DeG\?VAKQVLSHcE+QE+PJ@CEAVZH+\RZVU?>?GX+?H+U@XKcGc_+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_g+PeEUEAqGX+P@RZEQEX+^J@R@ABc_+QPJElHUW"+8JV\E+A %SQRS+AqHR+QABX+U@PHUEX+?H\?HfVZHg+FE+\RZVU?>?G+XK+P@X>J?>+ReE_RB+c_HJHRLEJ"+

2?HZB\H+ ABA@CE+ JEKZ?T+ ER@?@XVRM+ \H+ PJA?Gc_+ `+X>QGcW+ P@LAJUVZH+ P@RJHf@AK?G+ ?>RLEJBc_+ P@\VLVA?Gc_LJE?UW"+6XGJ?VZH+QE+UM?HXVRH+Q@SRJ@XT+QP@LeEYM+V XHZ@@Yc_@U?G_@+@YJHLS"+nMZ@+R@?QLHL@AK?@g+FE+PJ@SUJFE?G+?HQL@ZE?Bc_+LJE?UW+YSUE+UWZEFVLTg+HYM+X\U@AB+ABA@C+\WQLHZ+A Q@SZHUS+Q ABA@CEX+PJ@USRLVAVLMPJKcE"+, @YZHQLV+A?>CqGc_+A\LH_W+YMZ+Q@SfHQ?B+ABA@C+c_HJHRLEJV\@AK?+QLHYVZV\HcG"+%V\VRH+AqHR+YMZH+V?UVlR@AK?H+AE+ QLeEU?>U@YTX+_@JV\@?LS"+9VQRSL@AK?M+YMZM+P@LE?cVKZ?G+U@PHUM+ABA@CE+A?>CqG_@+ QEIXE?LSQZ@AE?QRT+ER@?@XVRM+?H U@XKcG+@Yc_@U?G+YVZH?cV"

nH?R@A?G+JHUH+QE+Q_@UZH+?H+L@Xg+FE+HfR@ZV+QE+P@UGZ+UEkVcVLS+Y>F?T_@+^fLS+?H+$9D+Q?GFVZ+H ?EU@QH_SCECVF+LHR+RJVLVcRBc_+_@U?@Lg+QLKZE+ErVQLSCE+?EYE\PEfG+@Y?@AE?G+A?>CqG+?EJ@A?@AK_M+AE+QLeEU?>U@YTX+_@JVl\@?LS+H ?KQZEU?T_@+?ESUJFVLEZ?T_@+\H_JH?Vf?G_@+\HUZSFE?G+U@XKcG+ER@?@XVRM"+4rVQLSCE+@YHAH+\ X@Fl?T_@+\_@JqE?G+P@UXG?ER+kV?H?c@AK?G+\H_JH?Vf?G_@+UZS_S+?H XE\V?KJ@U?Gc_+kV?H?f?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+l+H L@+CHR\ UWA@US+Er@IE??G+\X>?M+c_@AK?G+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+V?AEQL@JW+H?IHFSCGcGc_+QE+?H+J@\AGCECGcGc_+QE+ LJ\Gc_gLHR+\ UWA@US+RSXSZHcE+?>RLEJBc_+U@XKcGc_+JV\VRg+PeEUEAqGX+A @YZHQLV+YH?R@A?G_@+QERL@JS"+

, Q@SAVQZ@QLV+Q ABA@CEX+A?>CqGc_+A\LH_W+YMZH+UVQRSL@AK?H+J@ZE+PeGXBc_+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+V?AEQLVcg+RLEJT+CQ@SP@AHF@AK?M+\H+QLHYVZV\SCGcG+k@JXS+PeGZVAS+\H_JH?Vf?G_@+RHPVLKZS+H CECVc_F+@YCEX+:&n+QZEUSCE+H P@J@Al?KAK+Q ABqG+UEkVcVLS+Y>F?T_@+^fLS"+8A>L?@AT+^UHCE+?H\?Hf@AHZMg+FE+@YCEX+PeGXBc_+\H_JH?Vf?Gc_+V?AEQlLVc+XK+RZEQHCGcG+LE?UE?cV+H FE+CECVc_+QLJSRLSJH+CE+XT?>+PeG\?VAKg+A\_ZEUEX+R P@RZEQS+P@UGZS+V?AEQLVc+U@?@ABc_+PJ@CERLW"+(JE?U+QZHYT_@+PeGZVAS+QLHYVZ?G_@+\H_JH?Vf?G_@+RHPVLKZS+YM+X@_Z+YBL+AE+QLeEU?>U@YTX_@JV\@?LS+R@JVI@AK?+AZVAEX+\ZEPqE?G+V?AEQLVf?G_@+PJ@QLeEUG"+

2?HZB\H+ QVLSHcE+ ?H+ U@XKcGc_+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_+ SRK\HZHg+ FE+ LJ_M+ CQ@S+ P@X>J?>+ EkERLVA?G+ H PZ?G+ QA@SQHX@JEISZSCGcG+ J@ZV"+, PEJV@UKc_+RJKLR@U@YT_@+PeGZVAS+RHPVLKZS+ QE+\_@U?@cSCE+RSJ\+H \KJ@AEt+RZEQHCGRJKLR@U@YT+QH\YM+AE+QPZHL?@QLEc_+LeG+HF+qEQLV+X>QGcW"+,ZVAEX+Er@IE??Gc_+q@RW+CE+A@ZHLVZVLH+RSJ\S+AMQ@RKH PeEUEAqGX+QE+fHQL@+X>?G+J@A?@AKF?K+_ZHUV?Hg+?H+RLEJT+CQ@S+@Yc_@UM+?H+UEAV\@ATX+LJ_S+S\HAGJK?M"(HL@+ c_HJHRLEJVQLVRH+ CE+ UWZEFVLBX+ kHRL@JEX+PeV+ k@JX@AK?G+ QLJHLEIVE+ cE?LJKZ?G+ YH?RM+ QX>JEX+R UEAV\@lATXS+ LJ_S"+ , JEFVXS+ PZ@A@ScG_@+ RSJ\S+ :&n+ ?EAQLSPSCE+ ?H+ UEAV\@AB+ LJ_+ Q cGZEX+ SUJF@AHL+ RSJ\+ ?HSJfVLT+_ZHUV?>g+HZE+ V?LEJAE?SCE+Q cGZEX+\LZSXVL+?KQZEUER+Er@IE??G_@+q@RS+H PZM?SZE+PeEATQL+@Yc_@U@lAK?G+\ CEU?T+J@A?@AKF?T+_ZHUV?M+U@+UJS_T+YE\+?HUX>J?T+RSJ\@AT+A@ZHLVZVLM"

6?Hf?@S+P@\@J?@QL+A>?@AHZH+YH?R@A?G+JHUH+@fERKAH?TXS+ABA@CV+AE+kVQRKZ?G+@YZHQLV"+%@\QH_+@U_HU@AHl?T_@+UEkVcVLS+cE?LJKZ?G_@+J@\P@fLS+PeERJ@fVZ+PWA@U?G+PeEUP@RZHU+P@SFVLB+PeV+AM_ZKqE?G+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE?H+R@?cV+J@RS+*[[<"+D@RSU+YM+QE+P@LAJUVZM+LE?UE?cE+J@\P@fLS+R ?HJWQLK?G+UEkVcVLS+V AE+UJS_TX+P@Z@ZELGJ@RS+*[[dg+\?HXE?HZ@+YM+L@+AMQZK?G+U@UHLEf?T_@+V?kZHf?G_@+VXPSZQS+U@+ER@?@XVRM"+9VQRSL@AK?H+YMZH@LK\RH+U@PHUW+QERSJVLV\HcE+QRJMLT_@+UZS_S+?H+U@XKcG+kV?H?f?G+LJ_M"+DJ@cEQ+@URJMLG+UZS_S+YMZ+@\?HfE?\H+P@\VLVA?G+kHRL@Jg+RLEJB+PeVQP>CE+R EkERLVA?>CqG+HZ@RHcV+kV?H?f?Gc_+\UJ@CW+A ER@?@XVcE"+

nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+ AM_@U?@LVZH+ AH\YS+ XE\V+ cE?@ABX+ P@_MYEX+ A QEIXE?LS+ JEISZ@AH?Bc_+ cE?+ H fVQL@SV?kZHcG+ ?H+ \KRZHU>+ ZEU?@AT+ \RSqE?@QLV+ Q ?KPJHA@S+ cE?"+9@PHU+ V?kZHf?G_@+ VXPSZQS+ AMQZH?T_@+ \E+ QEIlXE?LS+JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+U@+V?UErS+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+YMZ+P@X>J?>+\?Hf?B+H YMZ+PWA@U?GXV+H?HZB\HXV+P@Ul_@U?@cE?"+DeEQL@FE+YMZ+UJS_@L?B+EkERL+?KPJHAM+cE?+AMqqGg+ CE_@+AZVA+?H+ABA@C+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+R@XPE?\@lAHZM+ XVX@eKU?>+ PeG\?VAT+ P@UXG?RM+ AE+ A?>CqGX+ QERL@JS"+ 9@PHUM+ fEJAE?c@AT+ ?KPJHAM+ cE?+ U@+ fVQLTV?kZHcE+YSU@S+XGL+P@?>RSU+CV?B+c_HJHRLEJ+?EF+L@XS+YMZ@+A ZEU?S"+9WA@UEX+CE+@UZVq?K+QRZHUYH+P@UV?lUErSg+A CE_@F+JKXcV+YSU@S+?KPJHAM+cE?+PJ@AEUE?M"+9@PHU+U@+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+YSUE+PJHAU>P@U@Y?>+XGJl?>CqG+?KQZEUREX+PWQ@YE?G+PeGCX@AT_@+EkERLS"

5b

Page 41: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

D@+UVQRSQV+RJKLR@U@YBc_+V QLeEU?>U@YBc_+kHRL@JW+k@JXSCGcGc_+ABA@C+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+QE+nH?R@A?G+JHUH+:&nCEU?@XMQZ?>+ J@\_@UZH+P@?Ec_HL+?HQLHAE?G+_ZHUV?M+^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+?H+ QLKAHCGcG+ ABqV"+nMZ@+ R@?QLHL@lAK?@g+FE+^UHCE+@ HRLSKZ?GX+V?kZHf?GX+ABA@CV+CQ@S+PeG\?VAT+H LHRT+RJKLR@U@YT+kHRL@JM+k@JXSCGcG+V?kZHf?GABA@C+CQ@S+PJ@\HLGX+A Q@SZHUS+Q J@f?GX+cGZEX+QLH?@AE?BX+PJ@+fVQL@S+V?kZHcV"+,M_@U?@cE?G+XHRJ@ER@l?@XVcRBc_+LJE?UW+AE+QLeEU?>U@YTX+_@JV\@?LS+AqHR+@URJMZ@+eHUS+JV\VR@ABc_+kHRL@JWg+ CECVc_F+?HPZ?>?GYM+YE\+PeGPHU?T+JEHRcE+cE?LJKZ?G+YH?RM+X@_Z@+P@QS?@SL+fVQL@S+V?kZHcV+HF+?HU+_@J?G+_JH?VcV+cGZ@AT_@V?kZHf?G_@+V?LEJAHZS"+,\_ZEUEX+R PJHAU>P@U@Y?TXS+QcT?KeVg+A ?>XF+QE+JV\VRH+?E?HPZ?G+\cEZHg+YSUE+PeVQ@SfHQ?TX+?HQLHAE?G+^J@R@ABc_+QH\EY+V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+U@QHFE?@"+

5<

Page 42: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

Q:a;>H.a Y@G;:;J.">;PCD;J.I>GF.6*".G;@.\(.o(.Vmmn.

nH?R@A?G+JHUH+:&n+?H+QATX+\HQEUK?G+N"+<"+*[[d+_@U?@LVZH+\X>?Mg+RLEJT+?HQLHZM+A U@XKcG+ER@?@XVcEH AE+A?>CqGX+PJ@QLeEUG+@U+P@QZEU?G_@+_@U?@cE?G+XHRJ@ER@?@XVcRT+QVLSHcE+nH?R@A?G+JHU@S+U?E+Nd"+`"*[[d"+ 8@?QLHL@AHZHg+ FE+ ?@AT+ ^UHCE+ \H+ RA>LE?+ H fEJAE?+ P@LAJUVZM+ P@QLSP?T+ Q?VF@AK?G+ P@PLKAR@ABc_H V?kZHf?Gc_+LZHRW"+6X>?H+LAHJS+AB?@Q@AT+ReVARM+?H\?HfSCE+Q?VF@AK?G+V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G"+, Q@SAVQlZ@QLV+ Q LGXL@+ ABA@CEX+ YMZ@+ P@\?HXE?K?@g+ FE+ UHZqG+ P@RJHf@AK?G+ P@RZEQS+ V?kZHf?Gc_+ @fERKAK?GA YSU@Sc?S+ PeV+ ?EX>??T+ ABqV+ ?@XV?KZ?Gc_+ ^J@R@ABc_+ QH\EY+ AEUE+ RE+ \ABqE?G+ JEKZ?Bc_+ QH\EY"+9KZEYMZ@+SP@\@J?>?@+?H+ L@g+FE+ V?kZHf?G+ VXPSZQ+A\?VRHCGcG+PeV+SA@Zt@AK?G+ JEISZ@AH?Bc_+cE?+Q @_ZEUEX+?HPWQ@YE?G+UWc_@U@AT_@+EkERLS+QE+?EXSQG+PZ?>+PJ@XGL?@SL+U@+cEZR@AT+V?kZHcE"+&@XV?KZ?G+RSJ\+H cE?MR@X@UVL+?H+QA>L@ABc_+LJ\Gc_+\ RJKLR@U@YT_@+_ZEUVQRH+PWQ@YG+P@\VLVA?>+?H+ABA@C+V?kZHcE"+nMZ+AMQZ@AE??K\@Jg+FE+Q @_ZEUEX+?H+HQVCQR@S+RJV\V+?EZ\E+AMZ@SfVL+UHZqG+P@RZEQ+cE?+QA>L@ABc_+R@X@UVL"+

, UVQRSQV+ YMZ@+ R@?QLHL@AK?@g+ FE+ RJKLR@U@YK+ V?kZHf?G+ PJ@I?m\H+ CE+ P@UXG?>?H+ ABc_@\GXV+ Er@IE??GXVPeEUP@RZHUM+H YMZ@+SP@\@J?>?@g+FE+PeV+?E?HPZ?>?G+X@F?Bc_+JV\VR+QLeEU?>U@YK+V?kZHf?G+PJ@I?m\H+V?UVlRSCE+ V?kZHf?G+ LJHCERL@JVV+XGeGcG+U@+QP@U?G+fKQLV+cGZ@AT_@+QLeEU?>U@YT_@+ V?LEJAHZS"+# @_ZEUEX+?H+\P@FlU>?Gg+QE+RLEJBX+X>?@AK+P@ZVLVRH+@AZVAtSCE+ER@?@XVcRB+H ?KQZEU?>+V?kZHf?G+ABA@Cg+YMZ@+\UWJH\?>?@g+FECE+?SL?T+JEHI@AHL+Q U@QLHLEf?BX+PeEUQLV_EX+?H+Q?VF@AK?G+P@PLKAR@ABc_+VXPSZQW+A ER@?@XVcE"

nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+ P@CXE?@AHZH+ eHUS+ JV\VR@ABc_+ kHRL@JWg+ RLEJT+ A RJKLRTX+ ?EY@+ QLeEU?>U@YTX+_@JV\@?LSX@_@S+?EIHLVA?>+PWQ@YVL+?H+V?kZHf?G+ABA@C"+#VLSHcE+?H+QA>L@ABc_+kV?H?f?Gc_+LJ\Gc_+YMZH+@\?HfE?H+\HCEUE?+ \ JV\VR@ABc_+ kHRL@JWg+ RLEJB+ Q @_ZEUEX+ ?H+ AEZVcE+ A@ZHLVZ?G+ RHPVLKZ@AT+ P@_MYM+ XWFE+ ?EIHLVA?>@AZVA?VL+UEQV?kZHf?G+ABA@C"+, UVQRSQV+YMZM+\AHF@AK?M+HZLEJ?HLVA?G+QLJHLEIVE+:&n+CHR@+X@F?T+JEHRcE+?HABJH\?T+P@QVZ@AK?G+?@XV?KZ?G_@+RSJ\S+R@JS?M"+

nMZ@+ R@?QLHL@AK?@g+ FE+ ABA@C+ Y>F?T_@+ ^fLS+ PZHLEY?G+ YVZH?cE+ H CE_@+ ?EUZS_@AT+ kV?H?c@AK?G+ XKAB\?HX?B+AZVA+?H+SUJFVLEZ?@QL+UEQV?kZHf?G_@+PJ@cEQS"+,BA@C+?H+QA>L@ABc_+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_g+P@LE?cVlKZ?G+P@RZEQ+\H_JH?Vf?G+P@PLKARM+H AMQ@RK+U@A@\?G+?KJ@f?@QL+fEQRT+ER@?@XVRM+YMZM+@\?HfE?M+\H+_ZHA?GJV\VR@AT+kHRL@JM+SUJFVLEZ?T_@+ABA@CE"+DeV+P@QS\@AK?G+X\U@AT_@+ABA@CE+YMZH+J@\UGZ?K+UM?HXVRH+XE\UAE+ AEeEC?TX+ H Q@SRJ@XTX+ QERL@JS+ @\?HfE?H+ \H+ kHRL@Jg+ RLEJB+ XWFE+ ATQL+ R @Y?@AE?G+ P@PLKAR@ABc_LZHRW"+

$@U?@cE?G+ABA@CE+kVQRKZ?G+P@ZVLVRM+YMZ@+P@QS\@AK?@+\ cMRZVcRT_@+H QLJSRLSJKZ?G_@+_ZEUVQRH"+nMZ@+R@?lQLHL@AK?@g+FE+Q @_ZEUEX+?H+?VFqG+ER@?@XVcRB+JWQL+?EF+L@XS+YMZ@+A PeEUc_@\Gc_+ZELEc_g+?EZ\E+_@U?@LVL_@QP@UHeE?G+AEeEC?Bc_+kV?H?cG+AB_JHU?>+?H+\KRZHU>+QHZUH"+ /E+FKU@ScG+R@?cE?LJ@AHL+QE+?H+QLJSRLSJKZ?GHQPERL+UEkVcVLS"+, L@XL@+@_ZEUS+Q@SfHQ?B+ABA@C+AE+kVQRKZ?G+@YZHQLV+?EYMZ+@\?HfE?+\ _ZEUVQRH+P@PLKAR@lABc_+LZHRW+\H+RZGf@AB+kHRL@Jg+PeGPHU?B+UHZqG+?KJWQL+UEkVcVLS+AEeEC?Bc_+kV?H?cG+@AqEX+YMZ+P@AHF@AK?+\H?EFKU@ScG+Q @_ZEUEX+?H+CE_@+V?kZHf?G+AZVA"

, \KA>JEf?T+UVQRSQV+nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+:&n+J@\_@UZH+?EX>?VL+?HQLHAE?G+\KRZHU?Gc_+X>?@A>+P@ZVLVcRBc_?KQLJ@CW+H SZ@FVZH+\PJHc@AK?G+UHZqGc_+H?HZB\"

5d

Page 43: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

Q:a;>H.a Y@G;:;J.">;PCD;J.I>GF.6*".G;@.Vp(.o(.Vmmn.

&H+ QATX+ \HQEUK?G+ U?E+ *b"+ <"+ *[[d+ AM_@U?@LVZH+ nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+:&n+?@AT+ ^UHCE+ @ V?kZHf?GX+ ABA@CVH ABQZEURM+H?HZB\g+CECVc_F+\PJHc@AK?G+YMZ@+\HUK?@+?H+CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUM+U?E+N" <" *[[d"+nH?R@A?GJHUH+R@?QLHL@AHZHg+FE+ABA@C+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+CE+A Q@SZHUS+Q V?kZHf?GXV+cGZV"+8@?cEX+J@RS+*[[d+YSUE+_@Ul?@LH+fVQLT+V?kZHcE+PJHAU>P@U@Y?>+A U@Z?G+fKQLV+cGZ@AT_@+V?LEJAHZS"+(@+AMLAKeG+PeG\?VA@S+P@\VcV+PJ@+U@QHlFE?G+QLeEU?>U@YT_@+cGZE"+

&H+^A@U+CEU?K?G+nH?R@A?G+JHUH+UVQRSL@AHZH+HRLSKZ?G+V?k@JXHcE+@ RSJ\@ATX+ABA@CV"+#VLSHcE+?H+UEAV\@lATX+LJ_S+YMZH+@AZVA?>?H+UEAV\@ABXV+V?LEJAE?cEXVg+RLEJBXV+AQL@SPVZH+:&n+?H+LJ_+A ^LEJB+*a"+<"+*[[dH RLEJT+ PJHAU>P@U@Y?>+ \HYJK?VZM+ UHZqGXS+ P@QS?S+ RSJ\S"+ , LTL@+ Q@SAVQZ@QLV+ YMZ@+ AMQZ@AE?@+ ?>R@ZVR?K\@JW+ ?H+ RSJ\@A@S+ PJ@YZEXHLVRS"+ D@QLHAE?G+ fEQRT+ R@JS?M+ ?H+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_+ CE+ AB\?HX?B+ kHRL@JX>?@AT_@+ABA@CE"+DeV+ Q@SfHQ?TX+QLSP?V+R@?AEJLVYVZVLM+R@JS?M+ CE+RSJ\+SJf@AK?+PeEUEAqGX+P@_MYM+?HkV?H?f?GX+ ^fLSg+ \HLGXc@+ Y>F?B+ ^fEL+ @AZVAtSCE+ RSJ\@AB+ ABA@C+ PeEUEAqGX+ A QVLSHcGc_+ ABJH\?>CqG@Yc_@U?G+?EJ@A?@AK_M+H fHQL@+Q CVQLBX+\P@FU>?GX"+

DeEQL@FE+ SRZVU?>?G+ QVLSHcE+ A %SQRS+ QLHYVZV\@AHZ@+ QVLSHcV+ ?H+ kV?H?f?Gc_+ LJ\Gc_g+ ErVQLSCE+ QLKZE+X@F?@QLRSJ\@AT+R@JERcE+A PeGPHU>+HRLVAHcE+L@_@L@+ErLEJ?G_@+kHRL@JS"+,>LqV?H+fZE?W+YH?R@A?G+JHUM+\UWJH\?VZHgFE+HRLSKZ?G+RSJ\@AB+ABA@C+?E?G+UWA@UEX+R Q@SfHQ?T+UVQRSQV+@ Q?GFE?G+QH\EY+H RSJ\+?EYSUE+X>?@A>lP@ZVLVcRBX+@PHLeE?GX+PeGX@+@AZVA?>?"+nMZ@+\XG?>?@g+FE+AB_ZEU@A>+CE+X@F?T+P@Q@SUVL+?HQLHAE?G+Z@XlYHJU?G+H UVQR@?L?G+QH\YM"+

$ZHA?GX+PeEUX>LEX+UVQRSQE+YMZ@+PWQ@YE?G+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM"+#PEcVkVRHcE+PeEUP@RZHUW+@ kVQRKZ?G+H _@QlP@UKeQRT+P@ZVLVcE+?@AT+AZKUM+A UHZqGc_+UA@S+ZELEc_+CE+\HLGX+AEZXV+@YLGF?Kg+c@F+QE+PJ@CEASCE+AE+\ABqE?T?ECVQL@L>g+ Q ?GF+:&n+PJHcSCE+PeV+AM_@U?@c@AK?G+U@PHUW+X>?@A>lP@ZVLVcRBc_+@PHLeE?G"+nMZ@+R@?QLHL@lAK?@g+FE+CUE+@ \KAHF?B+PJ@YZTXg+PJ@L@FE+AK_H+X>?@AT+LJH?QXVQE+CE+A RJKLR@U@YTX+_@JV\@?LS+\eECX>JEZHLVA?>+?VFqG+?EF+AK_H+LJH?QXVQE+kVQRKZ?G"+6H+UWZEFVLB+LJH?QXVQ?G+XEc_H?VQXSQ+X>?@AT+P@ZVLVRM+YMZ@A UVQRSQV+@\?HfE?@+k@JX@AK?G+V?kZHf?Gc_+@fERKAK?G+H CECVc_+AZVA+?H+V?AEQLVf?G+J@\_@U?SLG+H XGJS+^QP@J", UVQRSQV+YMZH+ k@JXSZ@AK?H+_MP@LT\H+@ PeEAZKU?SLG+?KRZHU@ABc_+ kHRL@JW+ V?kZHcEg+\ECXT?H+^J@R@ABc_QH\EYg+?HU+AZVAEX+SLZSXE?T+P@PLKARM"+DeEAZKUZ+?K\@Jg+FE+A fEQRT+ER@?@XVcE+ZEFG+PJ@YZTX+QPGqE+A ErVlQLE?cV+CVQLT_@+fHQ@AT_@+\P@FU>?G+XE\V+SLZSXE?GX+U@XKcG+P@PLKARM+H \P@XHZE?GX+V?kZHcE"+&K\@Jg+FE^J@R@AT+ QH\YM+ CQ@S+ AB\?HX?BX+ ?KRZHU@ABX+ kHRL@JEXg+ @UXGLZH+ A>LqV?H+ fZE?W+ YH?R@A?G+ JHUM+ ?H\KRZHU>+H?HZB\M+PeEUZ@FE?Bc_+UHL+CHR@+EXPVJVcRM+?EP@LAJ\E?B"+

nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+:EQRT+?KJ@U?G+YH?RM+J@\_@UZH+ CEU?@_ZHQ?>+Q?GFVL+ ZVXVL?G+^J@R@A@S+QH\YS+PJ@+UA@SLBlUE??G+JEP@@PEJHcE+:&n+\E+Q@SfHQ?Bc_+*`+s+?H+*ag`+s+Q PZHL?@QLG+@U+*<"+<"+*[[d"+6X>?H+^J@R@ATQH\YM+ @UJKFG+ \X>?S+ ER@?@XVcRT+ QVLSHcEg+ c_HJHRLEJV\@AH?T+ Q?GFE?@S+ JV\VR@A@S+ PJTXVG+ H P@RZEQEXV?kZHf?Gc_+ @fERKAK?G"+ nH?R@A?G+ JHUH+ QE+ U@X?GAKg+ FE+ ?@A>+ ?HQLHAE?K+ _ZHUV?H+ QH\EY+ @UP@AGUK+ \HUH?Bc_+P@UXG?ER+U@QHFE?G+ QLeEU?>U@YT_@+ V?kZHf?G_@+cGZE+:&n+ V cGZE+PJ@+ ZEL@q?G+ J@R"+9HZqG+X>?@A>lP@ZVLVcRK+@PHLeE?G+X@_@S+YBL+PeVCHLH+P@+H?HZB\E+U@PHUW+fEJAE?c@ABc_+?KPJHA+cE?"+nSU@SlZV+P@\VLVA?GLE?UE?cE+A ER@?@XVcRTX+ABA@CV+P@RJHf@AHLg+CE+:&n+PeVPJHAE?H+?H+?>+UKZE+PeVX>eE?>+JEHI@AHL"+, PeGlPHU>+AB\?HX?>CqG_@+\_@JqE?G+ Q@SfHQ?Bc_+PeG\?VABc_+A?>CqGc_+P@UXG?ER+?EY@+\KQHU?>CqG+ \X>?M+ kVQlRKZ?G+P@ZVLVRM+YM+YMZ@+?SL?@+X>?@A@S+P@ZVLVRS+@P>L+\PeGQ?VL"+

5[

Page 44: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

a]

Page 45: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

,$"+3S!/R.Zg-3!%$

a*

Page 46: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

DFG:D:&:4#87+&7%.9&)+n2&82&2+Dh)8.Di+Nd**`+]5++D%2$2+*:4#87+%4D'n1!82

PC;9>P9&.9n.%+,4h4/&-3$+!&0.%=23)LEZ"|+]NyNaa*+5`d`kHr|+]NyNaa*+5]<]_LLP|yy~~~"c?Y"c\

QH\YH+H+LVQR|+D%2(%+(JSL?@A

Page 47: ZPRÁVA O INFLACI - Česká národní banka · (2n’18.,7+Dh)1.$2 a* (HY"+f" *H ,BA@C+V?kZHcE a* (HY"+f" *Y+,BA@C+V?kZHcE aN (HY"+f" N+#P@LeEYVLEZQRT+cE?M a5 (HY"+f" 5H :VQLK+V?kZHcE

a5


Recommended